zdo

BF, Interesting...thx Ok, I'll bite - what does the smallest building block / wavelet look like? zdo

SIUYA, This looked more like a reply to Response #144 at Trading Chaos by Bill Williams - Page 2 | Trade2Win Forums than to "Then one day it hit me ..."

Hedge Farm! The Doomsday Food Price Scenario Turning Hedgies into Survivalists | The New York Observer Hopefully QE3 will be more 'fun' to trade than was QE2... QE2 was a no brainer... buy PM's For the long run, I'm buying light factory space in rural southeast... using low leverage... goodbye world 6 pm

Thanks. Yep he does have some great stuff on what can loosely be put under the 'time stop' heading that I had forgotten about... Do you think these points you mentioned can be applied to all methods or systems ubiquitously?

Callahan, Each of the posts above addresses one of the devils/aspects with this issue and there are several more not yet mentioned. One of them has got you by the nuts, a couple others stand ready to punch you in the guts, and several are messing with your neurons... Maybe call Rande Howell... or at least read his book. (Just an idea - ie have no financial interests or affilations...) hth zdo

phantom, (Even though thousands may read it and even thousands yap at you about it) Again, I’d ask you to consider writing as if just one person is really listening and benefiting from your work… and just ignore hecklers and others who can only respond with disrespect for methods not on the same wavelengths as their own… most of them have been hurt before... Other suggestions – > Start a blog on TL or elsewhere. Feedback in general, but esp. neg. feedback, tends to drop off considerably. > Open same kind of thread over on ET or T2W and see what happens… this bunch here will suddenly start to seem as reverent as a bunch of long bearded old rabbi’s… > Request that posters on your thread only ask questions and post images of realtime setup examples of your stuff… and if they want to challenge, confront, or disagree they can start a separate 'bash the phantom' thread. > Start a new thread... move the good stuff from this one over... you might get weeks before someone starts up crap... All the best. zdo

Was it the real phantom or an imposter.? Would the real phantom give up so easily? Comics and cartoons | Chron.com - Houston Chronicle //// phantom, Have you considered approaching this as if you have an audience of only one trader (not 100k)? ... and s/he hasn't posted/said a peep yet?

after they said dropping me on my head and leaving me to lick up my own after b didn't seem to affect me... well That explains EVERYTHING The traders did not grow up to be the social traders that flock together. They distanced themselves from the herd and become isolated and posted alot. :rofl:

re EW in general Like macD, I also went through an Elliott phase and also had some amazing, windfall ‘Elliott’ trades at the beginning, then… Over the years my favorite author on the subject is definitely Glenn Neely. However, your education will not be complete without some deep study of some of the other greats – Zoran Gayer and Dominick Mazza, to name a couple (of, unfortunately for us, dead guys). Some of my more cynical thoughts on the subject can be found at Trading Chaos by Bill Williams - Page 2 | Trade2Win Forums with particular emphasis on ‘response # 144’ …response # 377 was fun too… Then one day it hit me – there is not one Elliott Wave pattern (and how it unfolds for real instead of the way it’s ‘supposed’ to) that can not be fully comprehended via the Summation of Cycles principle…

:rofl: stay out of my psychosis ! dude, your bff Trend is a ‘two faced’ (if not a completely multiple headed split personality) deviant. While I have had issues with fighting Trend at some points, as I discussed above, my bigger issue is with Trends’ hypocrisies … :helloooo: Maybe Trend lies less to you than he does to me... Bottom line though – only any given chart, my friend Cycle presents me with many more opportunities than does my friend Trend.

Using Stochastics, Cycles & R.S.I: …to the moment of decision … by George C. Lane is the first practical material on the subject I read... at about the same time I was being exposed to all the articles about how linear cycles don't exist/ work btw. (and it's true - linear cycles are much more reliable for both volatility and volume than they are for price) . This remains the simplest ( just using your eyeballs / no fancy math) book I have on the subject. But first would be JM Hurst’s The Profit Magic of …. book Finally, maybe study Glenn Suprenard’s work at Cycles?? What Cycles? Glenn is an active daytrader who has pulled out the essence and filtered the Hurst techniques down into the shorter time frames (nominal 5 day, whole day, hourly, cycles. etc) I do have all of John Ehlers books but haven’t personally derived much value from them, maybe because I only skimmed them and haven’t really read them ?? These are the only 'large body' cycles publications I have studied…(and be aware GC Lane's book is anything but large) Most of my trading is off my own theories ... these theories don't conflict with the works above, rather they complicate them beyond what is comfortable for most…have also spent time researching and coding various cycle id methods (like Hilbert, etc) have spent most time in research, testing, nn, etc the particular conditions conducive to using 'cycles' ….hth

macD, Haven’t read Future Trends from Past Cycles by Brian Millard, but from looking at the TOC, it looks like an amplification / expansion of JMHurst’s published work. Keeping this on topic... even Hurst blved that trend had more percentage weight on pricing that did cycles

... we have cat that was from day one raised front half by humans (bottle feeding, etc) and back half by dogs (all that licking, etc)... not quite a normal cat, some 'species' issues, and she didn't grow as large a most cats... her name is Harlow

Before we get all painted into corners here, some clarification. While Trend has not been my most trustworthy, faithful friend – it has been a growing friendship. Over the years, we have become closer. Where the bottom line is concerned, my side of the friendship is just as responsible for our results as is Trend’s. Haven't been in fights with Trend across the years as often as I've fallen into that 'don't stay' bias some of us seem to be more susceptible to than others. I've done a lot of work on that... and I’m still working on our overall relationship… btw, Trend will never be a best friend. My bff is Cycle…

I have tried both ypes in the morning and neither are right for me AM. I suspect there are some TCM type reasons... The best time I have found so far is circa 6 PM by an hour or + or -. For me, later than that and the risk of not being able to fall immediately asleep starts to rise. hth

Rande, That sounds genetic, karmic, transpersonal, morphic – all at once! No wonder I’m ‘whelmed. First impulse - find some other content to attend to / flee. / with eye patches not shades I got in touch with an early childhood deprivation memory. I had been in touch with the memory before, particularly of how I reacted to that event as a 4 year old… but this time I got a feel for all the ‘preparation‘ work done before that event that made triggering my subjective response what it was instead of all the alternatives that were actually available but not consciously available to me at the time… Is that the kind of stuff you’re talking about ???

I agree with BigKahuna about all we have are adherent’s later projections on Gann and not much real Gann material. I, too, studied all the published and unpublished Gann material I could get my hands on and after all that study I only occasionally glance at some of his angle stuff with the ags mostly just to see if “by coincidence” … ages and stages ago - my own big 'projection' on what differentiated Gann was that he was an ace at knowing just when to exit. The benefit of that came not from Gann, but from finding my own strengths that were 'hidden' in the projections... Yes you can systematically (with confirmations or not) trade Gann’s various ‘timing’ and time price triggers from his techniques… but you could also do the same just as successfully with something like Sloman's Delta method or etc, etc. And you can take triggers ~x degrees before astrological aspects, etc – something he never mentioned. Why not? I bet he never noticed it. ….Anyways the only valuable Gann work I’ve ever really learned and profited from was from ‘students’ who used his concepts to develop systems and (more telling) his terminology to describe their own systems. For me, an old example of that is Gerald Marisch’s book The W.D. Gann Method of Trading – basic, not so precision oriented, trading techniques with a heavy Gann oriented overlay… The most profitable Gann stuff I have ever used is the Gann Clusters feature on G.E.T.… again Tom Joseph’s idea for this was only inspired by ‘Gann’. He didn’t really use Gann’s angles, etc.

re: "the trend is your friend" ... with friends like that, who needs enemies ? /// ... and which is a better friend for you* ? The trend of your own 'timeframe' or the trend of 1 (or more) 'timeframe(s)' up? * and I say "for you" because it really is system dependent

fxgirl re Big picture... Ideally I would >be impeccably trustworthy. >want the child to feel believed in. >teach by asking questions only - mostly about strengths >address what Rande calls the 'money narrative' > ... Comments The 'neg' of the first two = my blfs would have to be based in truth. If I doubted 'talent' and/or stopped believing in her, the 'course' would be over period...'we're fired' Re" the 'money narrative' At this point I seriously don't have clarity how that would be dealt with. With my own kids, the one who was seemingly most contrary and resistant to the values I was trying to instill has now turned out the one most aligned to the attitudes I was trying to 'teach'. Leaves me confused. Maybe Rande or others have suggestions. Now that I think about it, I don't for sure know what 'money narrative' is. My feel for it is that I've been through 3 or 4 of them so far in life, but none of them have been explicit. Maybe I could just google 'money narrative' and find out what the heck he's talking about... Hey I gave it a shot fxgirl And, to be real, that was all ideally. In real life, I must admit I would likely often go old school and dish up a pile of judging and fussing...:doh:

Nature. Less than 20 of the thousands of applicants were hired. “Dennis’s hiring process … given the nature of the interview and questions asked it was clear certain characteristics were required of potential turtles.” He was looking for specific talents and inclinations. Had the experiment been with a statistically significant sample of randomly chosen, non biased subjects – then we could do some heavy leaning to the nurture side… Also, I would say Dennis did not train / ‘nurture’ real traders. He enrolled wetware agents to leverage his own activities – activities that can also be handled by software agents as you mentioned. While he won the short term bet, in the long term the experiment really wasn’t that successful. Only a small handful of the Turtles really made it. A pretty large percentage of the originals subsequently failed /blew up. Most of them moved on - it was a job they didn't really like - because the method wasn’t true to their nature. Put 10,000 traders out on a field and only a very small group of them will be true trend followers in their very nature. I personally know one of the ‘Turtles’. He was with Dennis from 84 to 88 and then left to go on his own. He did very well – but only because true trend trading is in his very nature. I’ve asked him about this several times and in several ways. He understands that things came together for him and didn't for so many others because the method really matched his nature. btw... the real answer is Both . Have a great weekend all.

Here is my ‘SafeHaven.com’* article of the week I love to see the EUD soar! Gives a chance to short that trash again… Thoughts? (*poking fun at myself not SafeHaven.com)

re "3. The worst thing you can do is get in right near a swing high or low and play for continuation. In a move with more momentum, that type of play will pay you. In chop, you'll face plant nine times out of ten." Yes! I failed to mention on congestion trades I get out quickly - most of the time before price makes it even half way back across the envelope. Also, I take a max of 6 trades (basically scalps) per congestion and usually only 3 or 4 - with (as I mentioned above) decreasing size on each one... Since the mkts congest so often and consistently and the hit rate is so high, trading congestions bumps the bottom line up by over 20%... An aside re nature vs nurture: TN if you read this, these "genius" techniques were concieived and developed in the 30yr US intraday market of March 1987 - by necessity. A "strong fast focused resilient" player would not have needed to make such adaptations...

re: and Yes, the way I classed them is kind of counter-intuitive – like saying Einstein was not a talented genius . But if you observe those who do consistent high level performance work across a long time period and compare that to the sporadically blessed with breakthrough (, and usually tortured,) geniuses… See Gladwell’s Outliers book … although I think he doesn’t quite get the importance of the ‘nature’ components… Mixing in creativity veers us off a little bit. Have been trying to stay relatively close to the original topic of consistent high level performance. Quality of creativity is involved with that. But quanity or degree of creativity like it is with those in 'creative or adaptive tensions' not so much Talent is one aspect of performance. Inclination is another. To me, “determination and mindset” are factors of inclination…For example, I'm blessed with quite a chunk of musical talent, but little inclination. And instead of not being able to, the feral girl simply may have not been inclined to make all these stupid noises. I’m with you on the Luck factor. For me, the Luck is a ‘spiritual’ component of the whole deal. PS TN I got a thing for feral girls… it’s been dormant for a long time now… you just had to bring it up ... now I'm obsessed again... lord have mercy on me.

TN, re; "Taking small stop outs is a good one although somewhat subjective. If you lose focus on your system and start changing your targets..." If you inferred that from my post, then I need to work on my 'communication' skills far more than did the feral child ...

Negotiator, great thoughts. And, yes it could have bearing in many areas besides just ‘speech’. Reminds me of some of the Malcolm Gladwell, etc work on what you’re calling “role developmental phase” In development, there are multiple junctures and multiple pathways along the way. That plasticity of development results in a myriad of permutations whether triggered by nurture or by trauma. I hypothesize that if we had a sample of 1000 feral kids a large percentage of them would pick up speech quite quickly. (for example, - Tarzan had learned proper king’s English within months razz – but then again he was hot for Jane…motivated ) I think the particular way her neurons got networked in that one case was more of an exception – compared to normal socialization. I wouldn’t be surprised if the researchers ignored some exceptional other sensation and perceptual ‘talent’s she had developed using the parts of the brain that are typically ‘dedicated’ to speech recog and production… Back on topic Talent is overrated – where singular breakthroughs/ exceptions are concerned. Talent is not overrated – where day in and day out consistent performance at a skill is concerned. So re “Would these children develop far more than an adult who decided to become a trader then practise these skills? ” As a group they would develop more, but not far more. The ones that would develop far more are the ones who had the initial talents and then were nurtured. At the essence - it's nature AND nurture. So re: “Is the role developmental phase a valid additional component to be a great trader? ” Yes, No getting around the ~10000 hours part – even for the exceptions like Tom Baldwin, etc who take much less linear time to do it. And the list I provided above – strength, speed, focus, resilience etc was certainly not complete. You later mentioned Adaptability as important. However, in most cases the weaker hands are the ones being forced to attempt more adaptations, make breakthrough exceptions, etc. than are the truly strong performers. It’s harder to discuss, and iIt doesn’t follow developmental lines in the same way - but Character is another area involved ie there are definitely additional elements