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zdo
Market Wizard-
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Everything posted by zdo
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I’m So Mutable I Have to Change to Trade the Same ;)
zdo replied to zdo's topic in Trading Psychology
Two types of change I’m talking about here. One is changes btwn systems. The other is changes within systems. re: changes btwn systems. I don’t want to be putting off the tee. I don’t want to be driving or playing an iron on the green. And I don’t want to sit “waiting” The ways I differ from forum and mainstream trading book and article paradigms has been coming up more and more. As I note them it’s helpful to at least take a measure of the disparities. “Waiting” is one of the big ones. It’s actually a whole ‘nother topic but I’ll discuss it here in this context a little bit. (btw I’m not that impatient of a person – no where near pathological or even maladaptive levels.) In all games you are forced to move / play sooner or later. Some immediately. In others all the time. Or you lose. Waiting is not productive. Often prudent - yes, but in the end, neither life nor markets ‘wait’. The very center of my trading approach is MarketTyping to know when to change btwn systems so I do not have to “wait”. Back to golf, I’ve driven off the tee. I can’t ‘wait’ instead of taking the second shot. In trading, we fortunately do at least have the choice to ‘wait’. But if I want a real score ie really play the real, whole game at all, I don’t wait through to take the next tee shot. I change clubs and take the second shot period. I change whether I want to or not, whether I’m ‘skeerd’ or not, whether … I have to change to stay the ‘same’ / survive and thrive. The idea is to put self in a game (and timeframes) where the activity doesn’t require much waiting for. Switching to surfing analogies - Put self in surf that has a good wave every 10 or 11 waves not once an hour and wait only maybe one more wave not until a whole bunch of convoluted conditions line up. Now to the other ‘change’ at hand - changes within systems. I like golf analogies too (but never let them turn into metaphors ). In this case, I just happened to be enjoying some golf practice when I had a trading thought. In golf, basically I am seeking to develop four ‘biomechanically’ consistent strokes to the extreme. Yes, making / allowing certain compensations if ball lies up or down slope, etc. but still, developing a motor memory and consistently replicating the ‘perfect’ strokes. But in trading, I am making many more on the fly changes and adjustments within a ‘stroke’. But golf analogies fall down here, because for one the hole is always moving … tennis anyone? re: 'waiting' within a signal. Wait but don’t wait too long (no confirmation BS, it has a ‘breath’ that won’t wait). In surfing, when catching a wave, wait until just pre break and go (again no confirmation BS and more it has a ‘breath’ – synch up with it… outcomes unknown…) SIUYA, would like to get into the ‘regime’ topic with you a little bit - but time is up. Hopefully it will still be alive when I return in a week or so… All the best… zdo -
It’s freaking pandemic how much sizing, scaling, stops, targets content is generated about trading as if it could be applied ubiquitously across all types of systems, when actually the advice is EXTREMELY system specific. But, on the other hand, to generally say that scaling (in or out, in profit or loss) is bad is like saying the capacity to vary load in any arena is bad. Unfortunately he didn’t get system specific… but to give him the benefit of the doubt - I suspect he is just using those parameters as a example to illustrate the more general point which is: Learn to scale appropriate to your own system(s)! Scaling is actually sizing. System appropriate scaling (which btw may mean no scaling) is a crucial element of high performance trading.
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- balance
- creating a trading plan
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They bring in flexibility. You bring in strength. They are adding strength. You are adding flexibility. re: Typically I'm not even close to being a purist on these kinds of things but in this case I would say, if you can, do Bikram 1.5 hr. sessions instead of the spinoff class. Odds are facilitators who are not Bikram certified will be less likely to integrate and time the meditative aspects as thoroughly, or be able to give you best real time (and long term) guidance on things like the breath, or optimizing exertion, rest periods, etc. All the best, zdo
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pa, re: “have a few months off work” Consider taking the Bikram 30 (or 60!) day challenge… geometric benefits… life changing health… :) all the best, zdo
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Discipline is often about sticking to a previous choice regarding a known conflict. I’ve been saying the following for years now, and good reception is running at about 3% (no coincidence?) . Best way I’ve found to see discipline “in a positive light” is to flip it up and use any ‘need’ for discipline as a very important signal “If you have to apply discipline more than one or two times a month in your trading, then something is fatally (I brutally just added fatally) out of alignment between you and your methods.” Not saying discipline doesn’t have it’s place, especially developmentally, but in the end mindfulness / awareness is vastly more valuable in trading/ dealing with Threat Modulation than the kind of 'discipline’ being dropped into at least one post in almost every dam trading thread on the planet…
- 15 replies
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- balance
- creating a trading plan
- (and 3 more)
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I’m So Mutable I Have to Change to Trade the Same ;)
zdo replied to zdo's topic in Trading Psychology
Back home for a few days then will be gone one more week… been on annual June break – almost 6 weeks this year Have netted about 4 hours of trading the whole time so take whatever I say re: trading with a grain of salt . more on change... (not the kind of 'change you can believe in' btw ) For part of ‘my summer vacation’, we stayed a few days in a house on a golf resort. Late one afternoon a few minutes before dusk everyone was chillin’ alone here and there after dinner, so I packed my cargo shorts with balls, grabbed my new approach wedge, and went across the way down to the 12th green to practice short game. For a few minutes, the world fell quieter than silent. No faraway truck or motorcycle noise, no planes in the sky, no wind, no people – even the birds caught on and shut up. Just me and rich vibrant darkening green life all around. For days I had wondered a little about the markets but had kept away from tv and hadn’t thought about the activity of trading. As I set each ball in the same place as the last and attempted to consistently repeat the ‘just right’ stroke, I had a similarity question about consistency in trading. Is this consistent same same same same same … same … same how I go about trading? Hell No! In trading, I go same same same same same change new same new same… ‘Exchange traded’ markets are not a single regime game! It is a multiple regime game, with extremely variable ascendancies of the regimes. Sit still with one edge and you’re going to wait through some arduous times waiting for it to cycle back around again… oh the inadequacies of 'single factor thinking' in trading ! What thrives about same same same same in an environment that is the epitome of budhi impermanence ? Now the ‘good’ advice on all forums is sorta the opposite – find a workable plan and never deviate from it … make trading a discipline of inflexibility. Didn’t work for me. The equity curve of my first 7 + years looked like drunken sailor and I was ‘trying’ real hard to go by the ‘38’ rules of successful trading or whatever. What has worked is developing my whole approach centered around knowing when to change. PS Just realized this may attract some flames. It certainly would on ET, etc... Am sharing these thoughts not to dis those sticking with the 'same', but to let a noob know that is not the only way… an emphasis on something like Neural Chunking may take you much further than a freaking ‘plan’ ( and no, I’m not saying you shouldn’t have a plan! ) -
I’m so mutable I have to change to trade the same ie To trade certain edges/methods, “I” need to continually make inner adjustments to (largely unconscious) shifts in my own mental ‘styles’, to an almost tidal emotional backdrop, and to other seemingly random variations in brain chemistry and physical flow. To boot, many many edges/methods (not nec same as ones above) are met with very very similar shifts to those mentioned above by the market itself...
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Too pessimistic ?? The Sky Is Falling, It Is Time To Panic And The U.S. Economy Has Fallen And It Can’t Get Up
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"Still, America's "exorbitant privilege" of never having to settle its trade deficit in anything but its own currency isn't a benefit that China, or the Eurozone, looks too keen to enjoy for themselves any time soon. Both regions continue to seek export growth, and so neither would welcome the exchange-rate rise which would come with being the monetary lynchpin." Adran Ash Are these the world's four worst currencies? JPY USD EUR CNY
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TimeStamp 8:45 ...and out! .... except for a couple of runners...
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Forget Gold ... Are You on the Silver Bullet Train?
zdo replied to MadMarketScientist's topic in Market News & Analysis
COMEX Registered Silver Bullion Inventories Fall Sharp 38.5% in Two Weeks ? Risk of COMEX Silver Default Remains | zero hedge ... and some fun in Fiatville http://www.zerohedge.com/article/guest-post-can-we-please-stop-pretending-gdp-growing Does the US gov't as a system have Anosognosia ??? -
re: "I'm primarily using volume spread analysis" and "He swears by "researching" these often fictitious companies who do nothing but sell shares on the backs of grandiose stories or align themselves with promoters..." It’s not likely – but every now and then someone comes along who is better at ‘Tom Williamszing’ that even Tom Williams was. That’s what it takes to thrive at penny stocks and that may be the case with your friend’s “research” ing… But again, not likely. Especially if he “insisted I "get into" this stock with him” Odds are vastly with Tams re penny stock craps. Anyways, what traits and strengths do you admire in your friend? What could you do to be even better at vsa?
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MF, ever look at Ashraf Laidi : Speculators' Futures FX Positions ?
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First, have you read Rande Howell’s book? If you don’t come to more awareness of 1 how your fears are ‘organized’ (for lack of a better term) and 2 how your ‘self image’ (another for lack of a better term) is regulating your performance – both outside of your awareness – it really doesn’t matter how much you believe in your edge (or not) re” “just passing up a perfectly viable trade because I'm being overly cautious” Paraphrasing Mark Douglas --- Outside awareness again, every ‘red’ (or potential ‘in the red’) can re stimulate any and every uncleared defeat, defect, desertion, deprivation you’ve ever experienced (or even imagined ‘correctly’) Without a healthy you, your time and effort is 'nothing', your edge is 'nothing'. re: “Ever since then it's become this battle of either holding too long because of previously missed opportunities, not holding long enough, or just passing up a perfectly viability trade because I'm being overly cautious.” Finally something more practical - For every edge, there is a distribution of results. For every distribution of results, there is an adequate scaling (out - in this case) schema I sincerely hope I have frustrated you even more … just right
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... and now to real time "trade" / commerce A Minsk Moment Update: Belarus Hyperinflation Prompts Government To Freeze Food Prices | zero hedge "Show Me the Fractal!" Me 2 Edit "I am really not that big a sceptic, honest "
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More non - ‘lab’ reading Socionomics Institute “robust fractal” = ~ “anything goes fractal” ? // Lab work Whispers from the Edge of the Rainforest: Prechter Vs Schiff (Deflation vs Inflation) Chart Of The Day: Currency Devaluation, Old School Style | zero hedge Charting The Non-Linearity Of Hyperinflation, And Predicting America's Future Courtesy Of Ancient History | zero hedge Exercise: Did you find the fractals?
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Elliott Wave Principle - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia state of the f art Elliott Wave Fractals Since I personally have not found the 'markets' to be "as above so below" I get suspicious anytime I hear the term used by traders, etc. It is a mathematical term - and its application to markets and analysis is as limited as the application of some other mathematical stuff like parametric distributions etc... ie I don't think you'll really find what a fractal looks like by looking at charts and other representations of markets
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TN ( and Rande) Ditto that question. "measurable " is a pivotal word in the ??? When I observe myself, first comes a clear break between paternal lineage / scripts and maternal lineage / scripts. Further, maternal grandfather had most directed, conscious impacts (negatives). Paternal grandfather was born with a silver spoon in his mouth but he was more remote and a mystery to me ... Then, the grandmothers, (and aunts and uncles family friends, etc that I was impacted by as a child) lives and unlived lives etc... And we haven't even gotten to the 'sins of the fathers' many generations ago... And... whether related to this lineage business or not, it seems to me as if one of several / many narratives holds sway for a while then fades and another goes into ascendency.. sometimes it's a fast cycle with overnight type changes and other times one is in for months, even years... ??? good question Ya'll have a great weekend. zdo
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For me Bikram definitely = group Prasara definitely = alone
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Rande, Can one have a variable ‘financial narrative’? Can one have multiple ‘financial narratives’? thx. zdo
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MFX, Haven't tried butter. Hm?... have always just gone with light olive oil. Don't like anything interfering with the pinenut and basil flavors . (I do use the hard stuff, evo, in the red ital. dishes, like the recipe you're talking about, etc.) iws, yep the flowers, buds, and tiny leaves bring the flavor without the bite that mature leaves have...
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Advice for All - Stop Fighting the Trend!
zdo replied to MadMarketScientist's topic in Technical Analysis
BF, re: "...An impulse wave now becomes two 'bullish' ABCD's in a row... " How do you find the demarcation btwn the two 'bullish' ABCD's ? thx zdo ps Maybe we should move this conversation to a new 'Most basic building blocks' thread -
What’s your recipe? We like it with way too many pinenuts, too much olive oil, an average amount of parmesan, and less than an average amount of fresh picked basil buds, flowers, and tiny leaves (instead of regular sized basil leaves), and a short squeeze of lemon… yum ...decadence!
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Rande, re "80% of any decision made is based on implicit emotion rather than explicit emotion " If you have time, please expand or provide references for how you are using the words implicit and explicit. Is it just code for emotions un conscious of and emotions conscious of ? etc. Thx.
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TradeStation always deserves at least a trial... hth