zdo

. … not saying to denounce these beliefs, but I am recommending you do some deep questioning of those 3 beliefs and how they fit into your own ‘knowing when to do what’ For example, I personally have worked with all three of these and I no longer ‘believe’ in support and resistance, (even though I incessantly use middle of past congestions as a lazy shortcut for determining order points for entries and exits in position trades.) I do ‘believe’ in many simultaneous, variable trends, but I do not ‘believe’ in Trend. This complicates the hell out of things.) I do believe that “each moment is unique” but I do not believe each moment should be treated as such. I 'believe' market moments do not repeat, but they do always rhyme and resonate with patterns past. (Are you accentuating that belief because of past results so you no longer trust your work with the ‘rhymings’?) More bs re this at http://www.traderslaboratory.com/forums/trading-psychology/10205-i-m-so-mutable-i-have.html all the best.

(wikipedia and pictionary definitions aside) For traders, what is the difference between attitude and belief? Thx.

That was a great post! ...right up to the part about "really a nobody." Tams, None of us are nobody's . Not a single one of us. Still, a great post... telling it like it is. You are pointing out the inevitable destruction waiting for a trader who is doubling down for psycho-neurological reasons instead of reasons related to actual market actions. Been there - done that :crap:. I think Patuca is talking about reasons related to actual market actions. From what I can tell skimming the posts, I have systems similar to Patuca's. Also very high hit but rates, but since mine are only applied under certain market conditions, they aren't a high percentage of the whole bottom line. They are at once extremely precise for some aspects and almost totally imprecise for other aspects - like where and when subsequent add ons will be. Anyways, in these systems I 'double down' all the time. Sometimes when price comes to a good buy or sell point, it will turn immediately. But other times so it will make more thrusts down or up. If the first thrust is a good quality signal, then subsequent thrusts are also good. Adding more and more is warranted (again, only in certain market conditions). I want to be in any which way the turn occurs, so I don't skip the first and wait for more better entry. I get in, willing to get in some more all the way down or up to a certain precise / stop point. ( ie I shouldn't be deprived if it takes certain 'crowds' a little longer to catch on ) A real time example from this morning is attached. It does not have any examples of thrusts that go way past the first entry point and still being good for piling on size - but those happen all the time too. In any case, I would add more if the signal is there - whether next entry price is better or worse than first entry price. In the first example on the attached, the price went further than the first short entry signal shown at far left arrow. Add more at 2nd red dn arrow. In the next example price went beyond first entry twice. Add more each signal, 2nd and 3rd green up arrows. In the next two, price did not go higher than first entry, Still add more at the 2nd red arrow in middle of illustration. In the final two, again price did not go beyond first entry. Still add more at the 2nd green arrow. The first signal of each of these trades qualifies the subsequent entries. If they are at even better prices - fine. If they are not at better prices - also fine. None showed on this example and I'm not taking time to go cherry pick one in history. but if they are at far better prices (as long as it doesn't go past stop loss point) - even better! Even if it looks like stupid doubling down !

Great OP re: Maybe Ego is fear. ie ego is created to cope with fear … Generated, developed, and sustained by 'judgment' patterns based in fear…

What a great week to be trading! Here's some almost off topic / not specific to the EUR but still part of the whole picture Michael Pento circa 2 yrs. ago today a blogger circa 7/15/2009One foot over the border etc The Greater Depression Is Upon Us | David Galland | Safehaven.com (no advert intended, yada yada)

Seriously, if your intention is to help yourself and others develop in trading then you are welcome. And it's great if you enjoy yourself and have a few laughs along the way. If your intention is escape, diversion, fun at others' expense then - You're welcome for that laugh, but now cease and desist in here. Go play in ET. I'm pretty sure all the admin and all but a few of the members herein would agree. Using a random and unrelated decision process can actually go a long way in reducing certain components of the totality of uncertainty... :confused: Two students show up at the same time at Ass Jack’s DamNearPerfect Trading School. One is Nervous Nelson. The other is Iron Will. When they finish, who does better? Neither!! What most likely will happen to Nervous Nel has been described above. Iron Will is able to generate state that allows him to minimize and ignore critical inner issues. In class Iron Will’s progress is such that ideal “transference” is assumed by students and teacher. But back home, past certain levels of intensity, vaguaries, speed, etc. the state doesn’t hold up – feelings, judging, and fear (what?!) break through. It takes six months, but he finally (and correctly btw) concludes that this method is not for him. He also concludes (and correctly btw) that ‘transference’ is impossible. Should either of them get a full refund? Hel no! Can both of them still turn it into money well spent? Hel yeh! But only if …. ???

Nothing taken personally. My post was actually to raise the awareness for everyone of that dual issue of needing to attend to both the situation and 'sensor' accuracy. I understand. 'Traditionally', TL has not been a place for that. Please desist. May I suggest ET or TTW... OK guys, want to stay securely ensconced right there in the middle of the herd – then do that. Here’s the challenge – learn to trade in ever increasing levels of uncertainty. Learn to embrace less and less confirming / corroborating evidence. Learn to use each uncertainty to tweak your risk... ultimately there is simply not enough time, etc. for an individual to wait for certainty.

Gosu, Student had nailed the setup, entry, etc in the big S&P. Position had moved into profits Teacher (me, circa 1993, but I remember parts of this like it was 15 minutes ago): something to the effect of “What are you thinking now?” or “What are you going to do now?” If I had been really good, I would have asked something to the effect of “What are your options now” Student: “I’m thinking of taking profits” Teacher (me): “What on this chart is showing you shouldn’t be/ stay long?! It’s given you some space now, did you consider moving your stop up past breakeven and see where it runs to?” Student: “I’m getting out” speed dials broker. He was ‘emotionally hijacked’ at “… market” Price dallied around a few minutes then took off… How to turn an eleven hundred dollar trade into a two hundred seventy five dollar trade… Now in this case the coach may have been, as you say, “clueless” – after all we are talking about zdo, yo even worse a young gun, long ago and far away zdo, … anyways in the case above I don’t think it was the quality of the teaching. Rather, I can almost categorically say it was the student’s ‘physiology’ gettin’ in the way of his larnin’. I also know because, to be honest, pre date and post date that ‘lesson’, that same basic dialogue was acted out more than once intra-self with an inner ‘teacher’ and an inner ‘student’. Rande’s ‘emotional’ reasons ring a dam sight more true than the above students not having been “shown what it's like to trade competently by an expert who is solely interested in successful transference…” The student was sharp, well read, and good with charts. In my own case, by that time, I had been trained by 5 or 6 well known (at the time) teachers, Hank Pruden (being the best, long term), Larry W., Larry P. etc… You said “For me, the problem is being clueless about how to go about learning to trade.” Not sure why are you’re arguing. ??? If a learner cannot get into state where he can learn, he’s for fkn sure to stay clueless about how to go about learning to trade – no matter how good the teaching context and content is. I was recently talking with a nuclear engineer and he described how with the vibration / turbulence sensors in a reactor they had to run algorithms measuring both the turbulence itself AND measures of whether the sensors were functioning correctly or not. We’re dealing with a similar situation here. We have the actual reality of the trade risks and we have the physiological processes / emotions that can be roughly seen as threat sensors. Rande is talking about the ‘algorithms’ measuring the accuracy of the sensors. You are talking about the ‘algorithms’ measuring the actual trade processes. Instead of yipping at his heels off topic, please open a different thread with contributions on “learning how to trade”, “training the mind” , staying “rational” etc. They are needed and would be appreciated. Be careful of falling into the 'if I don't experience it that way, it can't exist' trap... “… because fear is biological in its nature, it will have an individualized physical signature for each trader”. He is serving the portion of the population you would be sending home “Yes, with full refunds” - because their sensors are malfunctioning and giving maladaptive feedback… All the best, zdo

more "Bankrupt or not" charles hugh smith-Here's Why Small Business Isn't Hiring, Part II 7:14 PM and yes I am in here 'working late'. ... and loving it - Thank you EUR !!! Run baby run baby run. I may be here half the night!

Yes Greece is going to be OK now (snick snick) but Italy Is Too Big To Bail, Even For France And Germany - Agustino Fontevecchia - Moral Hazard - Forbes

Enough talking about it in talking head, media speak, and current economic paradigm terms! Bluntly now [ame=http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=t3L2AO09KmM&feature=player_embedded]YouTube - ‪'Obama defaulted on US Constitution'‬‏[/ame]

Bankrupt or not charles hugh smith-Here's Why Small Business Isn't Hiring, and Won't be Hiring

Using ‘Daily’ profit goals and risks is indicative of ‘trading syschology’ issues. The issue will likely be further compounded because those limits are usually significantly out of line with the way one’s particular system should be played. Per trade profit goals and risks are TOTALLY system dependent. It can’t be generalized. Some systems are best traded dynamically, “taking what the mkt gives you” as Tams says. Others have best results with targets. Know your system. Test and know your odds. You don’t have to play your odds with extreme accuracy, just keep it in bounds… just like every tennis winning shot doesn’t have to be exactly on the line… hth

ourfxdad All my flippant and lousy ‘commentary’ in this thread is centered around the corrupt money system, not the net worth of the various nation states. If resources and net worth is included as criteria then we’d have to look at who controls those assets… average joe ends up in about the same straits either way… This is not a prediction, just an assessment of probabilities – things will likely get tougher for the citizenry all over the world before it gets better whether the ‘nation’ is ‘bankrupt’ or not. The same basic opportunity has been in place for the USD for years and years now. A good cyclic USD rally would, in my mind, present the opportunity again - whether the ‘nation’ is ‘bankrupt’ or not Yep, we haven’t been very clear about timeframes. But mine are all snippet, button pushing posts, not in depth elucidations. The timeframe of the snide little OP is decades. The observation was that since it’s peak about this time of the year in 2008, ‘every’ time the EUR rallies is an opportunity to short that sht out of it and that approach would hold up on all but the shortest timeframes. 07/07/11 most recent tradable example. To be “responsible”, I should note that the efficacy of this approach could end any day… no one really knows and it wouldn’t end or continue because the ‘nations’ involved are ‘bankrupt’ or not

Washington's Blog (a lead up - if you're interested... Washington's Blog) ie the usd is not far behind...

I can't say categorically that "It's time well spent for serious traders". It wasn't for me when I watched it long ago. But re: “one need not be perfect (which the video makes perfectly clear) to be a success. You'll note several instances in which PTJ violates commonly held wisdom.” Excellent point! I was just skimming http://www.traderslaboratory.com/forums/trading/10279-number-one-trading-rule-you-live.html and have got to report, I routinely ‘break’ almost half those rules and still do just fine. ‘Revenge trading’ is another one of the rules I love to break – only I experience it and call it “playing from behind” and I consider being able to play well from behind as important in short time frame trading as in any other ‘professional’ performance game and (with certain systems/ edges and situations only!!!!!!) don’t hesitate to aggressively add more size, not to mention probably get more 'greedy' too – breaking three of those 'rules' at once! (Btw Many of those “number one trading rules” in that thread are actually extremely system specific, but are presented as if they apply to all types of systems.

oh what the heck... The Daily Bell - Where Will You Go When the Sovereign Debt Volcano Blows? :helloooo:

Strategic Thinking Behind Trading the Inevitability of the Inevitable Pan-European Bank Crisis | zero hedge vs Euro: Safer than the U.S. Dollar? | Axel Merk | Safehaven.com :missy:

Two types of change I’m talking about here. One is changes btwn systems. The other is changes within systems. re: changes btwn systems. I don’t want to be putting off the tee. I don’t want to be driving or playing an iron on the green. And I don’t want to sit “waiting” The ways I differ from forum and mainstream trading book and article paradigms has been coming up more and more. As I note them it’s helpful to at least take a measure of the disparities. “Waiting” is one of the big ones. It’s actually a whole ‘nother topic but I’ll discuss it here in this context a little bit. (btw I’m not that impatient of a person – no where near pathological or even maladaptive levels.) In all games you are forced to move / play sooner or later. Some immediately. In others all the time. Or you lose. Waiting is not productive. Often prudent - yes, but in the end, neither life nor markets ‘wait’. The very center of my trading approach is MarketTyping to know when to change btwn systems so I do not have to “wait”. Back to golf, I’ve driven off the tee. I can’t ‘wait’ instead of taking the second shot. In trading, we fortunately do at least have the choice to ‘wait’. But if I want a real score ie really play the real, whole game at all, I don’t wait through to take the next tee shot. I change clubs and take the second shot period. I change whether I want to or not, whether I’m ‘skeerd’ or not, whether … I have to change to stay the ‘same’ / survive and thrive. The idea is to put self in a game (and timeframes) where the activity doesn’t require much waiting for. Switching to surfing analogies - Put self in surf that has a good wave every 10 or 11 waves not once an hour and wait only maybe one more wave not until a whole bunch of convoluted conditions line up. Now to the other ‘change’ at hand - changes within systems. I like golf analogies too (but never let them turn into metaphors ). In this case, I just happened to be enjoying some golf practice when I had a trading thought. In golf, basically I am seeking to develop four ‘biomechanically’ consistent strokes to the extreme. Yes, making / allowing certain compensations if ball lies up or down slope, etc. but still, developing a motor memory and consistently replicating the ‘perfect’ strokes. But in trading, I am making many more on the fly changes and adjustments within a ‘stroke’. But golf analogies fall down here, because for one the hole is always moving … tennis anyone? re: 'waiting' within a signal. Wait but don’t wait too long (no confirmation BS, it has a ‘breath’ that won’t wait). In surfing, when catching a wave, wait until just pre break and go (again no confirmation BS and more it has a ‘breath’ – synch up with it… outcomes unknown…) SIUYA, would like to get into the ‘regime’ topic with you a little bit - but time is up. Hopefully it will still be alive when I return in a week or so… All the best… zdo

It’s freaking pandemic how much sizing, scaling, stops, targets content is generated about trading as if it could be applied ubiquitously across all types of systems, when actually the advice is EXTREMELY system specific. But, on the other hand, to generally say that scaling (in or out, in profit or loss) is bad is like saying the capacity to vary load in any arena is bad. Unfortunately he didn’t get system specific… but to give him the benefit of the doubt - I suspect he is just using those parameters as a example to illustrate the more general point which is: Learn to scale appropriate to your own system(s)! Scaling is actually sizing. System appropriate scaling (which btw may mean no scaling) is a crucial element of high performance trading.

They bring in flexibility. You bring in strength. They are adding strength. You are adding flexibility. re: Typically I'm not even close to being a purist on these kinds of things but in this case I would say, if you can, do Bikram 1.5 hr. sessions instead of the spinoff class. Odds are facilitators who are not Bikram certified will be less likely to integrate and time the meditative aspects as thoroughly, or be able to give you best real time (and long term) guidance on things like the breath, or optimizing exertion, rest periods, etc. All the best, zdo

pa, re: “have a few months off work” Consider taking the Bikram 30 (or 60!) day challenge… geometric benefits… life changing health… :) all the best, zdo

Discipline is often about sticking to a previous choice regarding a known conflict. I’ve been saying the following for years now, and good reception is running at about 3% (no coincidence?) . Best way I’ve found to see discipline “in a positive light” is to flip it up and use any ‘need’ for discipline as a very important signal “If you have to apply discipline more than one or two times a month in your trading, then something is fatally (I brutally just added fatally) out of alignment between you and your methods.” Not saying discipline doesn’t have it’s place, especially developmentally, but in the end mindfulness / awareness is vastly more valuable in trading/ dealing with Threat Modulation than the kind of 'discipline’ being dropped into at least one post in almost every dam trading thread on the planet…

Back home for a few days then will be gone one more week… been on annual June break – almost 6 weeks this year Have netted about 4 hours of trading the whole time so take whatever I say re: trading with a grain of salt . more on change... (not the kind of 'change you can believe in' btw ) For part of ‘my summer vacation’, we stayed a few days in a house on a golf resort. Late one afternoon a few minutes before dusk everyone was chillin’ alone here and there after dinner, so I packed my cargo shorts with balls, grabbed my new approach wedge, and went across the way down to the 12th green to practice short game. For a few minutes, the world fell quieter than silent. No faraway truck or motorcycle noise, no planes in the sky, no wind, no people – even the birds caught on and shut up. Just me and rich vibrant darkening green life all around. For days I had wondered a little about the markets but had kept away from tv and hadn’t thought about the activity of trading. As I set each ball in the same place as the last and attempted to consistently repeat the ‘just right’ stroke, I had a similarity question about consistency in trading. Is this consistent same same same same same … same … same how I go about trading? Hell No! In trading, I go same same same same same change new same new same… ‘Exchange traded’ markets are not a single regime game! It is a multiple regime game, with extremely variable ascendancies of the regimes. Sit still with one edge and you’re going to wait through some arduous times waiting for it to cycle back around again… oh the inadequacies of 'single factor thinking' in trading ! What thrives about same same same same in an environment that is the epitome of budhi impermanence ? Now the ‘good’ advice on all forums is sorta the opposite – find a workable plan and never deviate from it … make trading a discipline of inflexibility. Didn’t work for me. The equity curve of my first 7 + years looked like drunken sailor and I was ‘trying’ real hard to go by the ‘38’ rules of successful trading or whatever. What has worked is developing my whole approach centered around knowing when to change. PS Just realized this may attract some flames. It certainly would on ET, etc... Am sharing these thoughts not to dis those sticking with the 'same', but to let a noob know that is not the only way… an emphasis on something like Neural Chunking may take you much further than a freaking ‘plan’ ( and no, I’m not saying you shouldn’t have a plan! )

I’m so mutable I have to change to trade the same ie To trade certain edges/methods, “I” need to continually make inner adjustments to (largely unconscious) shifts in my own mental ‘styles’, to an almost tidal emotional backdrop, and to other seemingly random variations in brain chemistry and physical flow. To boot, many many edges/methods (not nec same as ones above) are met with very very similar shifts to those mentioned above by the market itself...