zdo

what shall we call it? financial crisis ? excessive debt and imbalances ? banking emergency ? currency catastrophe ? deeper double dip recession ? post crack up boom * ? worldwide depression ? How ‘bout total systemic collapse? Are you ready? References: ie light reading TraderView - Alternative Investment Specialists || Managed Futures :: Forex :: Advisor Rankings * ’07 Fingers of Instability series good starting place … (btw, it appears Ty was not ready... but ??? )

Against the Institution: A Warning for ‘Occupy Wall Street’ « Andrew Gavin Marshall

I used to think that too... but for me personally, I finally had to make the differentiation of investmensts as those outlays to which I would be willing to materially and actively participate in making it 'work' and everything else is just a trade, regardless of time frame / holding period. I maintain that it is an important personal distinction to 'work out' for each of us...

27akram First let me encourage you to get a clear differentiation of your own of the differences btwn investing and trading. Generally that difference is relative and usually a matter of degrees across valuation basis, ‘type’ of decision making, commitment, and holding time and, etc.… but the important question is what the threshold is for you. ie TL is a trading site, not an investing site… so beware us :helloooo: Across time, the most rewarding investments are those which 1 you have an intrinsic interest in the underlying product and 2 are not yet in favor I have a shelf of true 'investing' books but it's been years since I even looked at them... will eyeball them and if see one to refer will post All the best, zdo

Also look and see if TradeStation platform is personally compatible for you ... (Platform recommendation only - it's not the best brokerage in the world but adequate for electronically traded instruments for most traders... I do give them enough business to keep the platform free... often in the first or (if I forget )last five minutes of the 'month' ) hth

trelco, (it may seem like this is a smart ass answer but it isn't) The best way to find out the difference between real and sim trading is to go live and real now and find out the differences that are YOUR differences - before you get a bunch of well intended, but ultimately damaging, feedback from others about their differences!

Well put - especially "Given most traders cannot seem to master one style its seems an extra leap to ask many to try and master many." btw and fwiw - neither 'trending' and 'reverting' as concepts or terms are part of my MarketTyping model... It must be David Varadi's day! (highlights mine)

negoc8r Sure, __ ___’_ _______? ____ __________ ___ ______ ____ ____ setup ___ _ post? zdo

Thanks. Your contribution reminded me of Research Synthesis: The VIX as a Moderator of Small vs Large Cap Performance and the “Generals Lead the Troops” « CSS Analytics "… one thing that experienced researchers understand both consciously and intuitively is that combining uncorrelated variables/indicators leads to superior results that are also more robust” David Varadi All the best, zdo

"The best way to control the opposition is to lead it ourselves." - Vladimir Lenin “Alex Jone’s” checklist > Organize the organized – chk > Organize the unorganized … :cheers:

Biiwii: Zombie Go Home

Currency: The Hidden Portfolio Risk | Peter Schiff | Safehaven.com The Sceptical Inflationist | Steve Saville | Safehaven.com

:haha: Don’t you just love it when a poster says you can’t blame 4 men and recent history, then comes along a little bit later and turns right around and blames even more recent history and just one 'useful idiot' for bringing us down 11 Reasons Why Occupy Wall Street Protesters Are Hypocrites If They Do Not Call For Barack Obama To Resign

Safe haven's of the month - USD, UST, dividend eft's???? (Whatever happened to Gold, Oil, etc as safehavens?) I have been open to the possibility of a USD rally for some time now… but somehow just can’t get to the ‘dollar as safehaven’ threshold… …also having a similar issue with the longer end of US treasuries… A story – In March of ‘87 the bonds just flatlined for two weeks. This was the exception, to say the least, because for years before they often had routinely put in 2 – 4+ full point daily ranges… When they finally broke down, I picked a number - 76.16 ( using eWave, fibs, and ‘beginners’ intuition) … ecstatic and wretched trading months passed... … On Tuesday, Oct 20, 1987 during the (new) evening session got filled… sheer luck ... ‘suffered’ a few minutes of 4 tick adversity to 76.12 (actually we need a scared Smilie) then USZ7 rallied overnight to over 85 … got out next morning with over 8k per car… time fkn flies ppl … fast forward to Oct. 2011... USZ11 futures playing in striking distance with double that 76.12 = 152.24… No, 152.24 is not a Magic Number for me now like 76.16 was then :missy: … I’m not a noob anymore… and I’m not nearly as ‘superstitious’ as I was then…:helloooo: …nevertheless I have some serious decisions re the long end of treasuries coming up… be trailing some entry stops up under that shit at least... >On to gold, etc ... Gold Versus Paper: The Dow to Gold ratio - the aha! moment ...still clinging to my Silver/Dow spread and itching to lift hedges on PM holdings... >Back to the dollar "...The Fed's philosophy - a resolute faith in central planning and debasement - has been unchanged since Paul Volcker stepped down as Chairman in 1987. Rather than considering any change of direction, the Federal Reserve Board is likely asking itself: "Should we print $50 billion or $500 billion in our next round of stimulus?" "Can the ECB bailout Greece now or do we first need to bail out the ECB?" "Should we call our money-printing 'liquidity assistance' or 'quantitative easing'?" Or perhaps, "Do we have enough ink refills for all those printing presses?" Peter Schiff off color green:- recycle all those brown toilet paper cores - issue new dollars on rolls... a dollar is a debt http://www.zerohedge.com/contributed/prophets-doom-12-shocking-quotes-insiders-about-horrific-economic-crisis-almost-here

Overnight, what if they threw every country out of the EUR except for Germany, France, Italy, Netherlands, and Belgium? Or… what if, overnight, Germany pulled out of EUR and re - issued the DM… ???

Germany must hit the eject button | Stratfor | Commentary | Business Spectator

re "What do you guys think?" I think you are at one of those opportunity crossroads Typing the market and then applying the appropriate system to the current conditions is at the very core of my work to master trading “Switching seamlessly” is a lifetime ideal I shoot for. It is literally a life passion for me. I go through times when it just flows, simply, elegantly … and times when I end up almost bloody head banging bloody … Biases… the bias that a trend will continue can be very strong when it’s around ‘in there’ … when that bias is absent it looks like the end of every trend is immediately imminent. I’m not an evangelist for others to take this path. Actually, I can’t really say much at all about this for you and other traders any more – it is more my own personal struggle and if you take it up it will be your own very unique challenge. I meet other traders who obviously have better nature and nurture in the ‘psychological’ docility it takes, but mentally either don’t have the inclination or a clue. I meet others who have the mental robustness but don’t have the emotional flippancy required. Both those are exceptions though, most traders I meet about this just return a blank stare Going full blown “Switching” is best done on short time frames. As others have alluded to, on longer time frames you can be way past your stop point before being able to identify that conditions have changed – :haha: then suddenly nothing is ‘seamless’ is it? In real time categorizing, the closer to the tick your sampling is the better, at the tick level is best!!!! The following makes things considerably more complicated than I would like especially in 'quantification' work but ---I have wrastled with this stuff for 80% of my career and after much resistance, I had to concede and acknowledge the presence of multiple concurrent auctions in our modern markets... hth sorry to cut it short but I gotta scoot. all the best, zdo

Tradewinds, Nor did I…it started as a funny. I think Krasting was just having some fun too. But seriously - while Rande made a good point differentiating 'family guys' from 'wall streeters' (broad stroke generalizations of course), I have found I do my best trading when I stop to consciously click into a ‘predator vs predator’ identity and state… also, I always trade in my office and never trade from home / ie I have also had to put considerable work into clicking back out the instant I leave the office and not carrying those energies into our home, etc. Have a great weekend all.

THAT’S WHAT IT FEELS LIKE TO BE A MEMBER translation attempts - euro-ese to americani What Europe via Presenting The Broke Bureaucrat Babel Fish: The Ten Most Misunderstood Euro Phrases Translated Into Americanish | ZeroHedge

Thanks Bob re “Maybe they dont know the answers” None of us know the real answers. I appreciate any answers just for different perspectives…( and, btw, "big picture" - yes, but I’m not so sure mine are really purely fundamentalist questions.) re “Better still they dont want to know the answer because it will influence their technical view.” I understand that from my own development and practices… but across the years have come to realize it’s better for me to flush out and acknowledge my biases than it is to ‘denial’ them… ie biases are already influencing their technical views anyways! re: “with a degree in Economics to support it” - what econ language do you speak? can you translate to and from Austrian? re: “kreslik” what methods/angles you attracted to / applying from there? re “intimadated by the guru label...” I don’t know how they come up with those labels / ratings for us – but I knew something was way off the day they clicked my IQ over 80 As far as ‘Trader IQ’ goes, trader ‘smarts’ are ok, but being brutally decisive in an environment with blatantly incomplete information is much much more important… Being reset to 15% would be fine with me... but if we’re stuck with the labeling though, suffice it to say I never met a good guru who truly respected being deferred to…or who appreciated any other pre-emptive defensive behaviors… let’s all just please ignore the attributed status BS and just talk trader to trader. All the best zdo

pa18, re “home for sharing and learning ideas but it's been very quiet for my liking, and I don't really post much here anymore.” that pretty much sums up my sentiments in starting the thread… re “…attracted to TL because of the mind section …” Please start threads. Seems like everyone has hunkered down so much that ‘sychology’ threads are getting very little real action in any site these days … re “not sure why you are setting up a poll” Yep, adding the poll was a stupid, snide idea…. don’t vote. don’t check results (like don’t tell, don’t ask)… I’ve done neither… All the best, zdo

Rande, Where you been? Thought you had give up on us or died or finally realized that Bruce Krasting: New Study – Traders are worse than Psychopaths How’s the new book coming? zdo

some 'how to get there' and some 'what it will be like' The Gold Report - Doug Casey: How to Prepare for "When Money Dies" chances of it unfolding just like he portrays it? pretty low

… this is part of and indistinguishable from the huge global ‘story’ being made up…something’s fishy … for example re the mortgage crisis, some say it was “regulation” (in a way the prevailing paradigms won’t permit and prevailing‘story’ doesn’t allow us to categorize as ‘regulation’, of course) that literally forced lenders into making questionable loans…the real story started way before these ‘four men’ were even born. Any ‘story’ that packs this ‘story’ into the actions of a few and into 10 – 20 years is just a misguided ( or worse, a misleading) ‘story’…

re "i still dont understand clearly " If you understand correlation then you understand... hth