Welcome to the new Traders Laboratory! Please bear with us as we finish the migration over the next few days. If you find any issues, want to leave feedback, get in touch with us, or offer suggestions please post to the Support forum here.
gassah
-
Content Count
316 -
Joined
-
Last visited
Everything posted by gassah
-
I'm not bashing VSA at all. There is a lot of good in MTM but I think many VSA'ers go through this phase of using it incorrectly that some of us eventually grow out of and recognize what Tom was trying to get across.
-
This summarizes my experience also.
-
I don't understand why trades that don't work out need justification. Pros don't get it right 40-60% of the time. I'll look over my trades to see if there was a mistake but the vast majority of the time I can't find anything and just move on. They aren't supposed to work out all the time and I don't get the hangup.
-
Hi Eiger, Your first attachment has a minor creek drawn across the 3/20 region but I have to disagree that this was a jump of that minor creek. There wasn't any volume on the jump and creeks are where the volume comes in. I wouldn't count the volume of 3/20 because it was below the creek you drew and because it was an expirations day and doesn't show up on any charts except with the NYSE volume. The markets may continue to rise but the range depicted is not one of those classic bullish ones taken out of the SMI/Wyckoff course. It looks more like trading range activity that can still have bullish components to get from the low end to high end, but without having the oomph to convincingly jump the major creek, at least where one can confidently predict it, IMO.
-
Then again, perhaps not.
-
Good looking bounce off the top of the lower range for the SP500 today. It appears the upper range is back in control for now.
-
Pruden has been teaching the SMI/Wyckoff course for many years. I believe he instructs mostly on Unit 1 of the course which is mostly SMI's modifications to the original Wyckoff material. It's hard to evaluate his book because I know the SMI course pretty well and the book is a brief summary. Disclosure: I'm working with Pruden on organizing a Best of Wyckoff conference.
-
Zeon, Do you have a strategy for when markets are in a trading range?
-
Tim Ord - "The Secret Science of Price and Volume"
gassah replied to Simple's topic in Beginners Forum
I enjoyed his book and have wanted to study swing volumes for a long time but it's been too much of a pain. I'm glad to see he apparently is successful doing so going by the awards on his site. His newsletter highlights one stock each day so it will be easy to see how he performs real-time. He compares volumes of swings, pivots and gaps and the software is very convenient. Although his ideas aren't anything original (he took the SMI course) he's the only one I know of that strictly follows these relationships. -
W says: "It is bad practice to buy a stock simply because it has penetrated an established supply line or broken out of an extended congestion area; or to sell it merely because it has violated a line of support or broken through the bottom of a trading zone, and for no other reason. Do not forget: The breaking of a trend line, by itself, is neither a conclusive nor an all-inclusive symptom. The significant thing is HOW the line is broken; the conditions under which the change of stride occurs. The behavior preceding such an indication must also be taken fully into account. In short, the quality of the buying or the selling at and around the point of penetration determines whether the violation of an established stride may be regarded as evidence of a further movement in the direction of the breakthrough, or whether it means only temporary change. This admonition applies equally to the violation of former tops and bottoms and old levels of resistance and support."
-
I'll disagree because it's important how a trend line is broken. The low volume is not encouraging.
-
It's probably not a coincidence the TPOs from the higher range provided resistance on the DJIA. I wish I could grasp how MIDAS does it.
-
I should have kept the borders on. I stopped the profile at the rally before the spring.
-
A couple of composite MP views of where the spring found support.
-
GBPUSD 30m spring?
-
Climaxing all the time is the best part of W.
-
Keep in mind the PnF targets are just a "watch, look and listen" area. I use them to make sure a stock I'm interested in has enough of a count to supply a minimum 20-25% move as an IT trader. Once the stock begins trending I look for supply or demand in the target region. A definite exit for me is the appearance of a climax at an overbought or oversold position (channel lines), combined with the meeting or exceeding of a PnF target. As has been mentioned before it is sometimes difficult to distinguish preliminary support/supply from a climax. If a target has not been reached then I'll give it the benefit of the doubt and conclude that it hasn't climaxed yet.
-
The .pdf will get you started. There's too much material to post here. Stockcharts.com does Wyckoff-style point and figure but you need to be careful with the settings: http://tinyurl.com/5k5hej The Figure Chart.pdf
-
W: "The most valuable feature of Figure Charts, however, is their horizontal formations, which, in many cases, forecast the approximate number of points a stock, or a group, or the average should move. It is in these horizontal formations, or congestion areas, on the figure chart that we find the greatest aid: in determining how far a stock should go when it meets opposition, viz., when it has about reached the end of its move; and with the help of the vertical chart determining the trend, and when a stock is on the springboard"
-
Here's a little. http://www.hankpruden.com/dow14400.html Schroeder PnF.pdf
-
He used point and figure charts to project. I'll quote some this weekend.
-
What is "composite"? Thanks.
-
In one of W's books he does mention taking into account breadth data. I can dig it up if somebody wants proof.
-
It looks different because it's following the bar movements and not the waves.
-
W stated: "After you have bought, you sit through a number of small, medium and good-sized waves, until finally you observe that it is about flood tide in that stock. Then watch for an especially strong up-wave and give your broker an order to sell your stokc at the market. The waves of the market furnish a clear insight into changes in supply and demand. By learning to judge all sizes of market waves, you will gradually learn to spot the time when a rising market or a rally, and the time when a declining market or a reaction, has halted and is about to reverse. These are the turning points." When I read Barros' book and he mentioned that he calculated the percent moves of waves and used standard deviations to help determine when it was "flood tide" I recalled the above quotation. The attached shows the weekly chart of EURUSD hitting the top of a channel. The AB wave happens to be far above the average wave for the past ten years. I have an Excel program that'll quickly measure these. AB is well beyond the the 3rd standard deviation at 37% and is at high risk of reversing. I mention all this because it's having trouble on the daily.