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gassah
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Everything posted by gassah
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I agree. It could then become a spring of the May lows and is why I'd like to see more of what develops.
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Sorry. I didn't even know what MT4 was until your question.
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It's calculated from where the profile starts on the left (1/22) to the right vertical line.
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Hi TannisM, They are just the 1st (value), 2nd, and 3rd standard deviations based on price. I wish it was derived from volume but they are usually very close.
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I've tried to simply Ray's chart by staying within the defined 5d swings.
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http://tradingsuccess.com/blog/es-05-23-2008-374.html Barros making swing volume comparisons within trends.
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I also prefer not to include the minor extension above 1400 and have moved back the last border of the profile. The blue area is value for anybody not familiar with this chart.
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The last chart was from MarketDelta and their composites always include the present bar. I prefer to leave out the last swing so here's the SP500 again. The value area is a little different.
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I've seen mention of closing back within value gives that range control again. The composite is SPY from 1/22-present.
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Where do the odds favor rotation back to the bottom? I'm going with the break of minor support, plus a little, around 1380. There's already been a minor false break with potential confirmation from the wide range down bar (with volume).
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I'm partial to Tom Alexander's work: http://www.alexandertrading.com/home/index.asp
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Exited the DGLY trade for breakeven. I don't regret taking the three longs with early exits. I was fully aware of the market resistance and the way it had risen, along with the excessive bullish sentiment, most notably on TL a couple of days ago, and am fine with the risk taken.
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Barros does something like that by counting the bars in the rally or reaction that led to the range and relating that to the time spent in the range (TPO count), coming up with probabilities as to the likely end of the range. I'm trying to get more details.
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As I mentioned once before Tom Alexander discussed buying out of the midpoint but it required a mature range as defined by MP and a bell shaped curve after the four stages of development. I don't know how you would define mature by only looking at a bar chart but you probably can.
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It also hit the value area of the upper range.
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I want to recant what I said about RIMM. In retrospect, and I had doubts about it when I bought it on 5/14, I wouldn't give it a high rating. I gave some weight to the decent volume for the breakout but I would prefer to see it rally up to the high with better volume. After 4/3 there aren't any above average volume bars except for the b/o day and I wouldn't be surprised to see it re-enter the range.
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I would say it's the market as a whole that is responsible for them not moving. The stocks don't look bad and I'd be willing to re-enter them if I don't see something else. I think this might be a little confusing for newcomers since I stated I trade for the intermediate term but I'm out after 4-5 days. It has to move within a short period of time otherwise my timing was poor, IMO.
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No. This is the first time I'm trying this rule. As for news, I don't get any except the occasional major headline email. I'm usually blind to what is happening throughout the day except for the major events like the FOMC meetings.
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I exited the RIMM and SOHU trades for a small loss and breakeven. I have a 3-5 day rule for lack of performance.
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The attachments will get us started. The first one is from Wyckoff, Section 4. [Note: see also W's book on daytrading, attached to the Introduction to the forum] Figure Charts.pdf Schroeder PnF.pdf
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I'm working on it.
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I'll start this off with a trade in progress. The real-time posting and the add-on position was made on my Yahoo! board the minute of the trades. I'm only going to own three stocks and will hold for the intermediate term if all goes well. I also bought partial positions in RIMM and SOHU which I can get to another time. I'm borrowing the following from a post I made today describing the DGLY situation: The rise from A to B is clearly strong with wide spreads and heavy volume. More specifically, the breakout bar is more than double the size of the previous bar (A), it opened and closed in the lower and upper quartiles with most of the bar above the top of the high of the trading range. Volume was very high and price continued higher, it followed through. The reaction, the backup to C looked fine. It stopped at the close of the breakout bar, only retraced 50%, and took out the lows of the previous eight bars probably providing enough of a wash-out to eliminate weak holders. I also look for reactions to hold above previous rally highs but that isn't really applicable here. The bar at C closed off the low and the next two bars didn't seem interested in the downside so I felt comfortable going long at the arrow. It goes real dull on very light volume forming an apex from which it rallies up from. The bar at D was a little concerning, a potential upthrust, but I rarely react to the action of one bar preferring to wait for follow through that this didn't provide. I've also seen many bars like this at the beginning of rallies and it could be viewed positively by noting the higher open, high and close. It's also no surprise that supply came out because it was back at the high of B that had heavy selling. The D bar did mess up my plans to add-on earlier than I ended up doing because I was looking for a close above the previous few highs and D raised that high well above the initial purchase price. So much for finessing. On the other hand, if price could negotiate the highs of B and D successfully than it would probably indicate significant strength and be a good place to add-on anyway. At this point, with a gain of 18% on the initial entry, I have a stop set at break-even and will look to add the final 1/4 after the last 1/4 becomes profitable, which will probably come with a move above Thursday's high. I have a point and figure (0.25pt) target of 17-18 or around 100% higher so I will give it plenty of room. I'll look for climactic activity in the target vicinity and will also have a trailing stop which I can describe another time.
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Wondering if the US $ will resume the downtrend? There appear to be simultaneous potential FX setups to possibly take advantage of this on the dailies: Longs: AUDUSD breaking out? EURUSD springing? GBPUSD off support? Short: USDJPY top of channel
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Bull's-Eye Broker from http://www.archeranalysis.com will create these charts for those who don't want to do them by hand or use http://www.stockcharts.com. I placed the counts where Eiger did on his chart.
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I find it strange. People with more experience are offering advice after having been through the exact same material and it's looked upon as hostile. If somebody in my field (medical) acted that way after coming out of residency with another person who had years of experience they'd be laughed at and ignored. That rarely happens though because you'd have to be a fool not to pay attention to somebody who's been around the block. You guys made a valiant effort and have probably helped winnie at least.