gassah

I separated out Friday's action and split today's. With the selling conviction down through the POC and lows of the composite Friday I'd be looking for a place to short today. The high volume node from Friday seems like a logical location for resistance. There was a spike also and I'd be interested in seeing whether or not price accepts or rejects this region.

I don't get futures but here's SPY.

This morning found support at the upper border of the lower node.

I went back far enough on the Nasdaq to show the POC from July-Sept '07 offering resistance this May-June and support last November. The most recent profile covers May 2-June 5. I thought the gap-up through, and pullback to value in April was cool too.

The break of value for the SPX.

Wow, now this is a move through a POC.

Attached is the 20pt chart for the NDX. The earliest place to begin taking counts is at a spring and if it's tested then at the test. A spring is a minor penetration of a trading range. It doesn't need to take out the lows of the entire range though in this case it did. A spring can also breach minor support above the bottom of the entire range. Counting back from the test of the spring the base can be divided into two phases. The phases are demarcated by price reacting to the count line with relatively heavy volume. The idea behind creating phases is that not all of a trading range is accumulation or distribution. It might not be anything. If the range breaks out to the upside we initially use the right most phase for the projection, "B" in this situation, and assume only B was accumulation. If phase "A" is also accumulation then another minor base will usually form at the "B" target that will often equal the size of phase "A". In other words, if "A" is nine boxes then the re-accumulation base, or stepping-stone count at the "B" target will often get to nine boxes also before it moves higher to the combined target of "A" plus "B". If A was not accumulation then the phase B target might be the end of the move. We cannot conclude "A" is also accumulation until the stepping-stone count base actually breaks out and moves higher. At that point we can add phase A's projection. The price/volume chart is needed to make this determination of strength. The NDX reached the first target and is basing between 1960 and 2040 but it's too early to tell if phase A will be fulfilled. Counts from higher levels within the Jan-April base can also be taken. The reaction lows of 3/28 and 4/15 are good places and they can be extended back with their own phases. The counts can be used to confirm the lower spring test count if they match up, or to project much higher potential counts. It's best to take it phase by phase, level by level, conservatively, taking note of confirmations and waiting until each phase proves itself.

A count for the SP500 taken along the 1400 line = 140 points (14 boxes X 10 pts per box). The aggressive count projects from this line, the count line. The conservative count projects from the high of the range for a count range of 1260-1300.

Didn't have to wait long for that lesson.

Today fell to the middle POC.

With the reversals, specifically the SP500 breaking the low 1370s, added SDS again and will think about what to do with the stocks over the weekend.

It's MarketDelta.

As you gain experience you'll find that setups are rarely "very very clear" because you will come across similar examples where the market goes in the opposite direction. There are only probabilities, no certainties.

The attached is a QQQQ composite (merge) back to 5/9 that shows three distinct high volume nodes (POCs - red lines). The blue lines approximate value around each POC. Today QQQQ tested the upper POC and reversed, closing above the high of the composite.

With the Nasdaq and QQQQ bouncing off the lower quartile border of their channels, the DJIA off the center of the Jan-April range, the SP500 off of "value" or the upper border of its range, and the Russell 2000 and Midcaps moving strongly to recent highs, I exited SDS and went long MA, STEC and CSIQ today. Hopefully this will last a bit.

I made a mistake with the DJIA right border. It doesn't change the POC.

To the left border, 1/23.

The DJIA is bouncing off the POC and the SP500 off of Value.

I only trade FX EOD and it doesn't use volume so I don't think it fits the "tape reading" definition. I'm comfortable with EOD and the tic counts but my track record is only a few months old.

the chart...

Hopefully the count from the top won't be fulfilled and the lower base isn't re-distribution. Along the 55 line is a count of 31 projecting down to 24-29.

Coming off resistance today. I thought it was worth a short (SDS long) today to see if selling comes in.

W simply used price levels in a range with a fair number of boxes to project counts. Attached are 50 and 100pt charts of the DJIA with 1 box reversals. Simply count the number of boxes in a line, multiply by the number of points in a box and subtract (or add) that to the price at the level the count was taken from. Using the 100pt chart there are 11 boxes along the 12900 line: 100pt X 11 = 1100. 12900 - 1100 = 11800. On the 50 pt chart: 21 boxes X 50 = 1050. 12900 - 1050 = 11850. Don't get hung up on the precise projection numbers. In this particular situation I'm more interested in knowing if there is enough of a count to make it to the other side of the larger DJIA range IF it decides to head down. The count can also be used to project upwards from 12900.

http://www.balancetrader.com has to be added to the list. I'm halfway through the course and it's very good so far. He leaves out much of the MP jargon looking to past balance areas for support/resistance much like Db does, and offers sound looking strategies for a fair $97, IMO.

Pretty much. I'll take a look at intraday charts but over the last couple of years I've been shifting toward just using daily bars. I'm looking for stocks to go up at least 50% so I don't waste much time anymore trying to eke out a percent or two here and there. I watch the market all day and can usually place orders any time. In general, I prefer waiting till the last hour to take a position, especially if the market looks like it's weakening. If the market appears to be at the beginning of an advance I'm more inclined to enter in the morning, after the first 30 or 60m high. Sometimes I'm too impatient to wait till the close (one of my weaknesses) so I'll take a partial position in the morning to satisfy the urge and fill the rest at the end of the day if it still looks good. If I can't be at the computer in the morning and the setup criteria were met the day before then I'll enter a market order or a buy stop. Yes, almost all entries require strength by breaking at least a daily high and usually a swing or range high. If it gaps up I'll control risk by decreasing the position size so that I'm not going to lose more than 1% of the portfolio if the stop is hit. If I had planned on taking an initial 1/3 position but it has moved out of reach then I might cut it back to 1/2 of the 1/3 or 1/6. If I didn't have the luxury of position sizing then I would let it go.