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I've been asked about the program that generates the POC which is Market Analyst. Any program that provides volume by price will generate similar information. Dbphoenix in the Wyckoff forum does a lot of work with this. Attached is the free http://www.bigcharts.com of SPY. Rob

For the first time I dropped down a couple of time frames to the 15m 18d chart and attempted to make use of the Opening Gap Rule, anticipating an intraday upthrust and the start of a reaction on the daily for the SP500. The first chart shows the rally entering the value area of the Jan-Feb range and hitting the POC. I thought this was a likely area of resistance. The second chart shows how the swing highs moved farther and farther away from the overbought line of the linear regression channel suggesting a slowing of momentum. The last chart shows the upthrust, the gap and penetration of the PSZ and the maximum extension where the stop is placed. Rob

Yes, thanks. We can see the swings now.

I find him interesting to watch on TV because he keeps it so simple for the public, yet I've seen him present some of the most sophisticated brilliant work for his students that the public has no idea about.

Ray on TV: http://www.cnbc.com/id/15840232?video=1071814115&play=1 http://www.cnbc.com/id/15840232?video=1071826363&play=1

The SP500 didn't accept beyond the maximum extension so it didn't negate the possibility of a spring. It then rallied with conviction above the PBZ (primary buy zone - bottom 1/8th range - 12.5% division) signaling a buy and suggesting a move to the PSZ (primary sell zone - top 1/8th range - 87.5%). It stopped (so far) at the bottom of value of the congestion in Jan-Feb. Common early places for the downtrend to resume are the 50-67% divisions or the RC (running correction zone), which is in the same vicinity. We aren't there yet so I'm not going to worry about it. The current setup is the buy signal and I will look to buy stocks on a pullback in the indexes. A common area for the pullback to complete is back in the PBZ, though a deeper test of the March lows would still be bullish, IMO. And BTW, I'm not expressing Ray's opinions so don't assign my errors to him. Rob

Ray introduced us to Constance Brown's technique of finding support and resistance using fibonacci ratios. http://www.amazon.com/Fibonacci-Analysis-Bloomberg-Market-Essentials/dp/1576602613/ref=sr_1_1?ie=UTF8&s=books&qid=1237668917&sr=1-1 I don't have the book with me but I'll try to explain how she makes the calculations. She always uses 38.2/50/61.8. To find resistance levels begin at a low and always project higher from the same low. This helps take into account expanding and contracting markets. Don't begin from a high for resistance. If the low has a tail don't use the exact low because tails represent emotional buying and selling and don't count unless that level is tested. Otherwise use another nearby low, close or open. In this example all three levels were taken from the March 5th low. The first projection up should have the 50% level hit a wide range bar or a gap. It should end at a point where the move down really gets going. This is usually not the swing high point. It is usually a wide range bar high, like 2/10's bar. Look to the left of the calculated levels and if they are done correctly they should have found support in the past. The second set goes up to another level and repeats the process, starting from the same low. The second one stops at the high of January 7th. We are looking for levels of confluence to mark resistance levels. The 50% line from the first extension and the 38.2 from the second overlap marking a level at 775. The third set is dropped from the Nov 5th high and provides confluence at three levels (red rectangle) or 797-803. That's my understanding. Rob

The correct second chart.

Something else to consider using one of Ray's Rules of Congestion is that a close above value suggests a move to the other side of value (80% probability). For those without Market Profile these levels can be approximated using 33 and 67%. It isn't a large move on the daily but on weekly or monthly charts they can be substantial. Rob

Comparing SPY's downswings there's a 17% increase in average volume and a 14% decline in average bar ranges and, although not dramatic, this is a check mark in the accumulation column, IMO. Rob

lote, I try to remain flexible, entertaining both sides, and am not shutting out the bearish scenarios. I'm taking it day to day and would prefer more information before re-taking a position at the moment. Rob

Hi lote, I'm giving more weight to the possible spring change in trend pattern after the conviction bar through the PBZ on Thursday, and will look to buy stocks on a light volume pullback. Rob

There's information here: http://www.telemetrics.com.au/barrometrics/ You might be able to find an unlicensed version if you do a search. Rob

EURUSD came out of the 18d PBZ following a little 5d spring. In Market Analyst the 5d structure looks more like a spring following 3 Drives to a Low (not shown). It came close to a diagonal terminal in MA but the AB/CD swings were off by 30% time-wise on the 290m chart (not shown). Rob

I thought EURGBP was an example of an 18d pullback with a 5d Repo (reverse potential- continuation spring) with an entry by the arrow as it came above the PBZ (primary buy zone) and/or recent bar highs. Rob

Ray is providing a free webinar Sunday (9am EST) to introduce the Barrometrics webinar: http://www.barrometrics.com/index.php Rob

Looks as though Heating Oil is coming up through the Primary Buy Zone (PBZ) for a potential spring change in trend (CIT) on the 18d. The ETF UHN is available. Rob

Hi, Thanks for joining and assisting. In addition to MA I also have the BarrosSwings in Tradestation. They don't always match-up and I suspect the Tradestation swings are inaccurate because I think Ray keeps an eye on the MA program. ESignal is apparently having trouble with the swings presently. Rob

Ray and James were recently discussing time and price windows, http://tradingsuccess.com/blog/cycle-high-for-sp-ii-873.html Ray calculates the price and time changes of impulsive and corrective swings and uses these stats to: estimate where a correction might end determine how overbought or oversold a move is I have a couple of questions on how to distinguish between impulsive and corrective swings. In the first attachment are Barros swings of the SP500. The blue lines are the 5d and and green ones are the next higher time frame, the 18d. If we are calculating the stats for the 5d then the impulsive waves are in the direction of the 18d line and the corrective waves are counter to it. There are a couple of exceptions. If the 5d line is totally covered by the 18d line (7-8) then that line is excluded because it is a higher time frame swing. The second chart has the second exception. If a swing in the direction of the higher time frame line is followed by acceptance back beyond the top or bottom 1/8th of the prior swing extreme, then the swing is counted as corrective, even though it's in the direction of the trend. Swing CD is corrective. I'm not sure about about GH because it's a small swing that fits the above corrective criteria. Are the last swings always impulsive? And in the 3rd attachment is AA-BB impulsive? There's a large retracement and it is part of a 5d range. Thanks.

He's aware of us. I hope so. Rob

The forum's goal is to gather Ray and his students, and anybody else who has an interest in learning his techniques. Links: http://tradingsuccess.com/blog'>http://tradingsuccess.com/blog http://tradingsuccess.com/ http://www.barrometrics.com/index.php/ The best way for a newcomer to learn the material is to purchase "The Nature of Trends" (NOT) and the video "The Introduction of Barros Swing", both located at the second link. He also has an upcoming five month webinar that is phenomenal, for a much deeper understanding of the methodology. It's only been a year since I've studied Ray's work, out of the ten I've been trading, so I'm not an expert and hope the trader's with more experience will offer their guidance. The forum is in its infancy and I hope to open threads covering the Barros Swing, Market Profile, Market Delta, Time/Price Windows, Market Analysis, Ray Wave, etc. Rob

He's a hedge fund manager with an excellent long-term track record. His major influences are Wyckoff and Pete Steidlmayer (Market Profile). http://www.tradingsuccess.com/about.html He has a strong background in swing and trading range behavior and has done a lot of research in market movements, including Elliot Wave and Fibonacci. nic

Barros places the cutoff at 78.6%. At 78.6% the likelihood of a sideways movement supposedly increases by a large amount. nic

<<a great Wyckoff trader>> I don't know about that. I'm aware of a number of complaints against Gary from clients that have lost a lot of money. Let him teach you but you'd better do your research before any money is given to him. He was prohibited from speaking at the "Best of Wyckoff" conference because his integrity is questionable. nic

The Ray Wave is more of a technique, not a plug-in. There is Barros Swing code for ESignal, Tradestation and Market Analyst. nic