gassah

Today provides an example with EURGBP. The daily shows the zone comprised of the time-price window (TPW), MIDAS and the retracements. The setup is the contraction setup as the range of the bars and volume shrinks (volume not shown). There is also a potential "repo" (continuation spring) on the 5d. The 60m (Forex uses 60m or 290m for intraday) shows the trigger bar overnight. I'll have to wait till EOD and decide whether or not to stay in this add-on position. Rob

Sounds good. There is something I'm not sure about for your TTF. When there's a setup on the daily for me I can enter on one of the 80m bars and if by the close the daily bar looks good I will stay with the position. If the bar ends poorly Ray suggests exiting. If you use the 15m then you can do the same thing with a 3m bar. What about when you are using the 3m for forecasting patterns? Can you anticipate with the 30s bars? I assume so. Rob

This statement applies to somebody trading the daily 18d. The 5d is the FLTF and the bar is the SLTF. For somebody trading intraday with a 5d swing I assume the bar is the FLTF.

I just clarified something else with Ray. The second lower timeframe is the actual bar on the TTF chart. In your situation the 15m bar has to be a conviction bar. You can enter earlier on a 3m bar but by the time the 15m bar closes it has to be a conviction bar. So you can eliminate the 30s chart altogether. Rob

Yes, stick to an LCC of 3. According to Ray the WPC usually happens last. FWIW, I really like the ME for breakouts. There are so many false breakouts that occur between the high and ME that it prevents a lot of bad trades. Once it gets moving beyond the ME odds are much higher that the breakout is for real. Rob

Ray also said to drop one TF down for the forecasting patterns. In your previous example then: SHTF: daily with 5p FHTF: 80m: 5p TTF: 15m: 5p for lagging patterns FLTF: 3m: 5p for forecasting patterns SLTF: 30s: trigger bars Rob

Hi bigbird, Ray has responded: "For intra-day TFs, the TTF is always the 5d. The reason is the 5-period swing on the first division by 5 is equivalent to the 1-day swing. Since there is a geometric relationship between the TFs, thereafter, the 5-p represents the 1-p of the preceding HTF." Sorry for the confusion earlier. Rob

You can also use the 5p on the TTF chart for WPCs. The count is 3 bars vs. the 9 for an 18p swing. Sometimes there will be a sideways market on the 5p, but not on the 18p, where this will be useful. See attachment. Seems reasonable, but I'm a little outside my area with the intraday stuff. No problem at all. Besides enjoying this it helps me learn the material. You haven't even gotten to the good stuff yet. Rob

Here's an example. Rob

You don't need all the swings on all the charts. If your TTF is the 80m, you'll have the 5p and 18p swings on it. The 18p identifies the trend and will be used for the lagging change in trend patterns. The 5p will be used for the forecasting patterns. When you have the zone and setup on the 80m then you'll go down to the 3m to find conviction bars. You don't need swings on the 3m chart, just candlesticks and volume. The next HTF is the 18d line on the daily chart. Stats are kept on this line to determine OB/OS and to estimate where corrections will end.

I'm sorry but I wasn't clear before. The time frames are based on time. So if you are using the 80m to define the trend then the 15m and the 3m are the next lower time frames and the daily is the next higher. If you are using the 15m as your TTF the next higher is the 80m and the lower ones are the 3m and something below 1m. You can have the 5p and 18p on each one and use what you are comfortable with. Rob

Yes, you are correct. The 3m is more accurate. The 5m was a rounding up that I've heard Ray do. That is true and the goal of the 80m chart is to create 5 equal bars. On the 80m chart, the 5d represents the 1 period swing of the daily chart and the 18d represents the 1 period swing on the weekly chart. So you can see what is happening in multiple time frames on one chart. I've never heard Ray do anything like the 25-P on a chart. I would stick to the 5d and 18d swings. He did say in a webinar that if you are using the 5d on the 80m for your trend then you can use the 15m and 3m (or 5m) to further refine your entries. Rob ]

I trade the 18d on a daily chart so I'm not certain about the intraday conversions. I've submitted your questions to Ray but will respond as best I can in the meantime. It's best to use the default settings; that is the 1, 5, and 18 periods. The 5d swing on a 5m chart is the equivalent of an 18d swing on a 1m chart. The 5d is one timeframe lower than the 18d. The 1m is one timeframe lower than the 5m. You should pick a time frame and utilize the 18d swings as your trader's time frame and the 5d as the first lower time frame. Your intraday choices are the 18d and 5d swings on an 80,15,5 or 1m chart. Ray doesn't have an edge below 15m so he recommends the 15m as the lowest denomination. Apply it to your trader's timeframe (TTF) with an 18d swing. No, it does matter that there isn't a WPC or LCC. There isn't acceptance without them. Rob

No, it just has to turn.

Hi bigbird, For the upthrust, acceptance is a conviction bar below the PSZ. The bar has to have a normal range with an open and close within the top/bottom 1/3 of the bar and volume has to be at least normal. 1/2 the candle body has to be below the PSZ. Price also cannot accept above the maximum extension prior to coming back into the range. Acceptance in this regard is two consecutive closes above the ME, one bar has to be a conviction bar and it doesn't matter what order they come in. In addition, the potential upthrust must follow a prolonged trend. The longer a trend is in force the more likely the reversal pattern will actually lead to a reversal. D must come down to at least 78.6% of AB. Yes. When 78.6% of AB is reached or after the line has turned back up after reaching 78.6%. The above should have answered your question, D1-E1. Feel free to keep on asking and to visit Ray's forum. Rob

Market Analyst at market-analyst.com offers the simulation. nic

I believe so. He uses Market Delta when he comments on auction tops and bottoms.

The 1st spreadsheet displays all the 18d corrections since 1979. The 2nd one adds the bins. The bins are evenly spaced numbers that range from near the low of the data and stop with a value above the highest data. In this example a "3" is entered in B7 and 2 is added down the column till 29 is reached, just above the 28.57. In B8 type "=", left click the "3" in B7, type "+ 2", enter, and 5 should appear in B8. Then click the B8 cell and go to the bottom right corner of the cell and drag it down till the 29 is entered in B20. The bin column will take some experimentation. You could start off with "2" in B7 and stop at "30". Starting with 2 or 3 and adding 1 is another option. When you become familiar with a number of examples it'll become easier to decide. Left click to the right of the first bins value in the empty C7 cell and drag down to the final value, C20. Type "=frequency". As frequency is typed you can hit tab to complete the word without typing the whole thing. Click the A7 cell and drag down to the last input A57. Type "," and drag from B7-B20. Hit and hold Ctrl/Shift together and press Enter. This will enter the number of data values that fall within each array. C7 equals 3 because there are 3 data values that are less than or equal to 3 (2.05, 2.75, 2.97). C8 equals 10 because there are 10 data values greater than 3 but less than or equal to 5, etc. See chart 3. If C7-C20 is highlighted there will be the summed value (51) at the bottom right corner of Excel. If it isn't highlighted then you can do it at any time. This number will be used to calculate the percent each binned value represents of the total. In D7 type "=" and click on C7, "/51", enter. Click D7 and drag down from the right lower corner to the end of the values, D20. Highlight D7-D20 and right click in any shaded cell, choose Format Cells, Percentage, Decimal Places 0 and OK. Chart 4. Now beginning with the highest percentage (22) move up and down choosing the highest value. Start at 22 and move to 20, all the time keeping track of the total. You want to stop when approximately 68% is reached as this represents the 1st standard deviation. After 20, 16 is larger than the 6 in D7 so include the 16. 10 is larger than the 6 in D7 so include the 10. The D8-D11 cells total 67% so stop there because more values will exceed 68. These correspond to the B8-B11 cells or an 18d correction of 5-11%. If there are more bins you can count two cells at a time and drop to one cell when 68 is approached. If there are equal initial high values start with the one nearest the center. If there are equal values as you move north and south from the center then include both. Do the same for time which I've included in chart 6. Once you get the hang of it it's a breeze. nic $COMPX 1.xls $COMPX 2.xls $COMPX 3.xls $COMPX 4.xls $COMPX 5.xls $COMPX 6.xls

Hi Michele, We'll be using the Frequency function in Excel. Frequency function.pdf

Okay, I'll try to get to it this week. I'll do the Nasdaq Comp 18d that's attached. Don't mind the annotations as it was taken from another board. Nasdaq.pdf

When there are at least 30 data points I use the Steidlmayer distribution Ray teaches in his webinar. If you are serious about creating TPWs I can explain it.

It's an interesting program. I'm not sure if manipulating volume in whatever manner he does is appropriate or more or less accurate. It costs $200. In Vista I have to use a command prompt so it isn't windows friendly but it isn't difficult to use. You also need at least 10 years worth of volume for it to analyze.

I purchased the normalised volume program from Kym Haines and he states it does the following: "The program normalises volume based on: - how a day's volume relates to the volume of the days before it - what is the history of this volume relationship for similar days in the past (calendar day, day of the week, and many more) - which type of similar day is the best predictor for the current day - correcting the actual volume based on predicted behaviour (e.g. boosting volume on expected slow days)" An example that Ray mentioned is July 2nd where volume was much higher after normalization.

This post explains it: Measure of Contraction Blog for Trading Success