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gassah
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Everything posted by gassah
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Ok, my turn. How come it's so small? Thanks.
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test
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I have an M6 and got it up to 170! Took it out to the track too. Nice. nic
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Stock Selection Part 3 Did W find the fundamentals of a company important? On the one hand he makes the following statements in How I Trade and Invest in Stocks and Bonds (thanks, Jason). "While in former years I usually began with a consideration of the trend of the market, and then passed to the choice of security, I now line the factors up in the following order: (1) Long trend of the market. (2) Nature and tendency of the industry. (3) Trend of the selected company's affairs (toward improvement or contrary). (4) Character and reputation of the management. (5) Financial Position and earning power. (6) Position in relation to the intermediate, i.e., the thirty to sixty-day swings. "When all of the above prove up to my satisfaction I feel safe in making an investment. Of course, there are other considerations, but these are the most important." On the other hand, from the course: "I, therefore, claim that: You need never read anything on the financial page of your newspaper except the table of stock prices and volumes. You need pay no attention to the news, earnings, dividend rates or statements of corporations. You need never study the financial or the business situation."
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Stock Selection Part 2 W described "two processes of reasoning" for the selection of the best stocks: the deductive, or top down, and the inductive, or bottom up. The deductive method first determines "the position and trend of the general market; then the position and trend of the various group averages; and finally the position and trend of individual issues." The inductive method moves "from the particular to the general." He created a position sheet and assigned each stock a technical position, that is, was it bullish, bearish or neutral for both the short and intermediate terms. There would be multiple stocks for each group and at a glance you could determine the position and trend of the various groups, and the general market. At the appropriate time the best stocks would be selected from this sheet. I've included a .pdf by Hutson that explains it in more detail. "Either approach is good by itself, though reasoning from the particular to the general requires the exercise of more skill and judgment and takes a little more time. It is best to employ both methods if possible, for then one will serve to check the other." Position Sheet- Hutson.pdf
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Another way of doing this is to set the value calculations to 95% instead of the standard 68 or 70%. This can be done in MarketDelta with price or volume. nic
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We can get a few more bars by selecting the largest chart size.
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Slave driver. Yes.
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Stock Selection Part 1 Buying Tests Objective Accomplished On Down Side - Point & Figure chart used to estimate targets from upper range(s) Activity Bullish - volume increasing normally on rallies and decreasing on reactions Preliminary Support- selling climax in background Stronger than Market - responsive on rallies and resistant to reactions Downward Stride Broken - supply (down trend) lines penetrated Higher Supports Higher Tops Base Forming Estimated Probable Profit Exceeds Indicated Risk
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My "thanks" was full of sarcasm. :crap:
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I was thinking along the same lines as I went through my list of stocks; nearly all of them are getting rejected at resistance.
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As I read through the Buying and Selling Waves section of W's course I remembered how I wanted to do a better job of comparing waves (swings). Ray Barros also does this and uses it to guide him on whether or not swings or trends will continue or reverse. Market Analyst makes it relatively easy. This chart shows the swings compared: the mean bar size and volume have dropped in the second swing. Barros likes to see a 30% change to call it significant. There's something called Swing Strength with a big decline. I don't know what it measures and I'm having trouble accessing their web site at the moment to find out. Anyway, just an idea. I haven't played around with it much.
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Is the Wave from the SMI components? nic
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Thank you. Is that from stockcharts.com? Do you find the number of horizontal volume bars adequate? Can it be broken down into finer levels?
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This is exciting! I'm trying to plot volume by price for the higher trading range of the SP500 but I can't go back that far with the MP module in MarketDelta. Any other suggestions in order to get back to June '07? I can do the price composite with Market Analyst and the TPOs probably match up with the volume areas but I'd like to see anyway. nic
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Erie, I look to enter at the upthrust (or any weakness in the "red zone") with a potential add-on at the test and an exit at the other extreme. If the higher timeframe is down then I'll hold a half for a break down unless it looks as though it's not going to do so or add again at some point below the range (trend trade). The thread is open to anything. nic
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Me too. I have to read Tom Alexander's book again. I think he stated that big moves often begin at the range center of a mature profile. nic
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Ah, story has changed somewhat. The hazards of posting before the bar is finished. Principles still apply. nic
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I find the upthrust and test sequence as taught by Wyckoff/SMI interesting viewed through the lens of MP. The upthrust (false break) into the 3rd standard deviation that responded down to the POC and then rallied testing High Value. Wyckoff talks a lot about swings to the half-way point but I find looking for S/R based on market structure far more logical. BTW, how do we embed attachments? Thx. Also, don't know why I can't edit the thread title to all caps? nic
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Thanks, guys. I'm finding TL filled with quality information and hope it's mutually beneficial. nic
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Hi Eiger, In Wyckoff's course he states "It (the trend) is the most important thing to know about the market or an individual stock." Since the intermediate trend is down I'm looking to short near the top of the range. The spring and the strong response to it the next day suggested a move to the top of the range. The rally hasn't been impressive so I don't see any reason to change the plan. If it does jump I'll make it prove itself more than I would a downside break because the counter-trend breaches are more likely to fail. nic
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Hi Eiger, When you reference absorption from the Wyckoff course are you referring to the following passage and chart? The probability that this lateral movement, or trading range, between 156-151 is an area of absorption rather than one of distribution may be determined: (1) from the fact that volume remains low on the reaction to January 29th and tapers off promptly on the reaction to February 2nd; (2) from the tendency of the price movement to narrow into a comparatively small range instead of reacting as much as halfway back to the January 19th low, which implies that stocks are not being pressed on the market; and (3) from the fact that after the recession to February 2nd, volume tends to build up consistently at the same time that there is a lifting of the supporting points from February 5th to 7th - behavior typical of the completion of a period of accumulation or absorption prior to a mark-up. What's happening in the SP500 doesn't seem comparable to the above because there aren't enough bars yet, not to say that it won't head higher. nic
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This is SPY with a composite from last week and the high volume area hit by Monday's low. nic
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If it follows through tomorrow I was thinking of something more long term. nic
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100-12.5= 87.5 nic