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gassah
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Everything posted by gassah
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I now have intraday stock data for Market Analyst if there is something you'd like to see.
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Right. I just can't find the setting in Tradestation.
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Combining the ranges this one shows that the 1400 area has the least number of price touches, where the market has been least comfortable.
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Ray covered scenario planning yesterday and it couldn't be more applicable than today's markets. http://tradingsuccess.com/blog/the-mental-state-for-scenario-planning-313.html The SP500 is back in the extreme zones of the upper and lower ranges. The graphic makes for a simple looking plan. If there's acceptance above 1406 than I'd be looking for the upper range to be back in control. If it gets rejected back down below 1384 then the lower range is in control. Sounds simple but it won't work out this way. :\
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I'm still shy by an hour and can't figure out how to change it. I think the earliest I could get in is the 10:12 bar following the spring and after the supply line is crossed.
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I don't DT but how about coming out of the pullback around 9:59 and exiting around 12:38 after the high volume of 12:12 and churning about 12:30 and then a support break at 12:38?
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Those bars were trying to break out of a range. How about the possibility of absorption volume from "pushing up thru supply" (MTM)?
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The Terminal Shakeout (TSO) - Wyckoff "A Terminal Shakeout is a rapid or precipitous downward movement, occurring at or near the end of a period of preparation for an advance. In the case of deliberate manipulation, the purpose of the terminal shakeout is to scare holders of stock into selling out; to catch stops which may have been placed on long positions below the previous line of supports in the accumulation zone, in other words, mop up as much cheap stock as possible; and to encourage short selling around the bottom on the part of the public. After the bag has thus been held for the weak holders and amateur shorts, the strings are pulled to lock in these shorts and to shut out the sold out bulls. This may be done either by a gradual or by a rapid recovery in the price. It makes no practical difference whether a shakeout is due to manipulation or panicky selling on the part of distressed longs. In either case, the selling that forces the sharp downward acceleration of the price movement is due to supply of poor quality. And the ensuing recovery is caused by the superior quality of the demand which is taking advantage of frightened sellers." They come in a variety of shapes and sizes. I see GBPUSD on the 60m as one.
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Of more importance is the terminal shakeout (GBPUSD) and apparent follow through today that offered an intraday entry. I'll find the relevant material from the course.
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GBPUSD is challenging the supply line today of a falling wedge? I'm not a pattern guy.
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I'll have to go through Tuesday's posts to find out which one you are referring to. Is it the 1m NQ I already responded to? I'm curious about the double bottom because McLaren, with 40 years of experience, states that double bottoms rarely end down trends. They are terrific in up trends but usually fail in down trends. The reverse is true of double tops.
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Hi Zeon, I'm a ST/IT trader and prefer this big picture. Looking at only the daily chart isn't providing the full picture from a W point of view. The weekly has to be taken into account and that trend is down. If the trend were up then making long commitments on the selling climax and subsequent tests would fit the strategy. W does provide examples of making short term long trades in bear market rallies but he didn't take on intermediate longs and didn't advocate trading short term against the longer primary trend, though it's probably fine for an advanced trader, IMO, with a proven track record of trading with the trend first.
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The first chart is the NQ 1m from yesterday which I think is the chart under discussion. Along with a trailing stop I believe W would have drawn the channels and considered exiting at the preliminary supply and/or buying climax (BC) areas. The BC is especially attractive because: Price hit a prior day's congestion It was overbought outside an accelerating channel (position) It reached a point and figure target I've never tried point and figure on the 1m NQ so I don't know how well it works. Not all stocks/securities work with point and figure and each one would have to be checked historically to confirm.
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Potential terminal shakeout on the 30m GBPUSD?
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You demonstrated discipline and taking a small loss. Probably more important than showing a big winner, IMO.
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This type of range is certainly consistent with historical bull/bear secular cycles. I bet the folks in 1969-70 who experienced a 31% DJIA decline didn't expect a 40% decline only 4 years later, as part of the 1966-1982 range.
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Oops, now he tells me. McLaren came out with this today that I didn't know: "Currencies can show a different pattern of trending than other markets. That difference is they can struggle down towards a low and appear to be forming a low and then break to the downside. Stocks very seldom behave in that manner and indexes and commodities also seldom show struggles and higher low support and (then) break."
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It's from section 7, p4. "In taking a position in the market, which, of course, would be a long position, we have had, up to now, three opportunities: (1)....having completed a selling climax...if we can get in near enough to the lows. (2)...secondary reaction (test) (3)...overcoming the previous top (automatic rally high)...however this is the least favorable of our three buying opportunities so far, since we would now be purchasing on an up wave, thereby materially increasing our risk, whereas previous commitments were established on down waves, close to the danger point. Also, regarding (3), it's the "final confirmation of an important reversal."
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My responses are slowed by my real job. I can watch but can't touch. nic
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It's in the course and I'll dig it out this week.
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There are examples of him buying breakouts in the course but it wasn't his first choice. nic
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I think he suggests waiting for a ST higher low in this kind of situation.
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Glad to entertain. I wasn't including the entire line when centering, I think.
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I guess this board is okay for this since Wyckoff encouraged swing analysis. I'm wondering if this is a bullish chart as it comes down to support. It seems to be struggling down; it went up more easily (label "1"). It's taken more bars to come down yet it's much higher than the 2/20 low. Concepts borrowed from McLaren. His ebook is a good read, IMO. http://www.mclarenreport.net.au/articles/ nic
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never mind.