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tawe trader

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Everything posted by tawe trader

  1. tawe trader
    Hello Mark, welcome. If you have the VSA or price + vol experience and knowledge to see Seb calling a lot of the bars wrong then it's sounds like you have a head start on most beginners and should do just fine - jump right into the trading arena. I personally find VSA very accurate but sometimes I still struggle to believe what I see on the hard right edge. That's the hardest part for me and (pls excuse the cliche) if you can trade what you see and not what you think then VSA is will keep you on the right side of the major moves, the majority of the time. VSA is not a mechanical system like where you would see, for example two moving averages cross-over to give you a clear buy / sell signal as once you know the VSA principles (which you sound like you do) there is a bit of thinking involved but it's mostly common sense concerning the mkt background and higher timeframes etc. Patience also plays a large part in successful VSA trading. Just my 2p worth.......... Regards Tawe
  2. tawe trader
    Sleepy, Without trying to be funny if your an EOD trader how can you have a shorter / intraday timeframe for entry ? The big thing with timeframes is each trader has he own favourite that he is comfortable with. Eventually you tend to end up with a timeframe that suits your personality after a lot of trial-and-error. Going back to the above question, you wouldn't go far wrong in using a 30 min timeframe for an entry. Use the daily for your overall strength / weakness then look to enter for shorts on a 30 min no demand (or upthrust) or longs on the confirmation of a 30 min 'test bar'. Tawe
  3. tawe trader
    Winnie, What I have noticed, is that even during a downtrend the mkt will more than likely hesitate or put in a small bounce off a support level or pivot point. If there is a no demand on a support level I would maybe hold back from going short, at that moment. If the mkt bounces and puts in a small rally and another lower high forms, the downtrend is still intact. Then you could be on the lookout for any no demands for lower-risk short entries. You would usually find a no demand bar at the top of this mini-rally. The ideal scenario is a no demand bar touching / coming up to overhead resistance or a downsloping trendline (supply line). Tawe
  4. tawe trader
    If we switch it around for short entries................. If we see background weakness say on a daily or 60 / 30 min timeframes by way of high volume upbars there is hidden potential selling (supply) by the pro's. If the mkt is tested and the background weakness is confirmed, the path of least resistance is now down and the mkt should start forming lower highs and lower lows, ie a downtrend. What if we drop down to an intraday timeframe for an entry. With background weakness and the mkt in a downtrend it is now 'safer' to take short trades in-line with the pro's. Short entries:- 1. No demand which is confirmed. 2. Upthrust. 3. Bounce's off resistance levels and pivot points. 4. Bounce's off downsloping trendline (supply line). 4. Trendline (demand line) break to the downside. 5. Breakout - down.
  5. tawe trader
    I'm not sure if the following will be of any help but maybe it will be to some of the newer traders, ie building some trading plan around VSA and Wyckoff principles. As a quick VSA re-cap, what to we know ? If we see background strength say on a daily or 60 / 30 min timeframes by way of high volume downbars there is hidden potential buying (demand) by the pro's. If the mkt is tested and the background strength is confirmed, the path of least resistance is now up and the mkt should start forming higher highs and higher lows, ie an uptrend. What if we drop down to an intraday timeframe for an entry. With background strength and the mkt in an uptrend it is now 'safer' to take long trades in-line with the pro's. Long entries:- 1. Low volume test's which are confirmed. 2. Bounce's off support levels and pivot points. 3. Bounce's off upsloping trendline (demand line) 4. Trendline (supply line) break to the the upside 5. Breakout - up
  6. tawe trader
    CW, Thanks for the clarification. The 'end of a rising mkt' bar was something I had made note of from a free video by TG (Gavin) a couple of months back. I guess I should just stick to following the master, Tom W. Tawe
  7. tawe trader
    The 12.26pm bar that I marked yesterday as a high volume wide spread bar could also be called an 'END OF A RISING MKT' which was formed during an economic news announcement in the US. Crafty ol' buggers these pro's !!!! Why an 'end of a rising mkt' bar ? 1. It came in after a good sized rally. 2. It was a very high volume upbar. 3. The mkt closes off it's highs, which indicates supply was present. Also, if volume is ultra high, there is additional weakness in the mkt. Once we have seen weakness in the background, which in this case was signalled by an 'end of a rising mkt' bar, it pays to look for a no demand or upthrust as an entry point for a short trade. As I write this the FTSE hasn't been above that bar, so maybe we have seen a short-term mkt top. If anyone has seen anything I've missed or overlooked, please let me know. Tawe
  8. tawe trader
    TG have made a fine move bringing you onto their seminar team. I'm sure the audience will really appreciate your Wyckoff / VSA technical skills and chart reading, just as we do. Enjoy yourself but don't forget about returning to your old mates on this VSA thread, once in a while All the best Tawe
  9. tawe trader
    Here's todays chart of the UK's FTSE100 Future contract. Chart #1 - 60 min To give some idea of the mkt background have a ook at the rally the FTSE has put in over the last 4 days. A rise of approx 700 pts, well over the equivalent 1400 Dow pts. Chart #2 - 7 min On the 12.26pm bar there is US news and the FTSE prints a very wide spread bar on very high volume. Even though it's not a candlestick chart, I mark the bar's high and low similar to how CW marks up his candlestick WRB's. I then watch what the mkt does inside the bar's high & low (yellow) lines. We have a failed break to the downside but then the mkt prints a no demand followed by an upthrust. We have another failed breakout to the downside prior to the US mkts opening at 1.30pm UK time. When the US mkt opens the FTSE rises slightly but never breaks the high of the 12.26pm wide spread bar. The big players can't be interest in higher prices for now. Chart #3 - 7 min As you can see the mkt eventually falls thro' the lower yellow line and declines quite a few points in the afternoon session. There were other opportunities to go short (or add to shorts) on the way down. Tawe
  10. tawe trader
    Hello all, Regarding the Welsh Wizard I would just like to make a quick post to clear a few things up. I am not the WW and I am not promoting anything of his. Yes I am Welsh and do live near him but I've never met him or bought anything off him. I have been in contact with him via email, on-and-off for a couple years and found him to be extremely knowledgeable, experienced and informative. I have recently been in contact with Blowfish and he has clarified a few points regarding the WW. I have been following the WW (free) daily FTSE commentary since 2003 and found it very educational. It is an after-the-event, intraday commentary due to FSA rules not allowing trading/investment advice on a public website but he sometimes gives 'clues' in his commentary and writing. From what I know and read, his trading is based on Wyckoff, supply and demand, support and resistance, trendlines etc. Regards Tawe
  11. tawe trader
    Eiger, I'm not sure, it's not something I've thought about. My grammar isn't as good as it should be but my background is Mechanical Engineering and Design and not English literature. The Welsh Wizard (http://www.thewelshwizard.com) as well as being a top-class trader is quite artistic and a fine writer. Regards Tawe
  12. tawe trader
    Yes Steve, it is something you need to look out for and be aware of. Whilst low volumes are essential for test bars in the underlying cash index (showing a lack of supply), futures markets can create similar test bars on higher volume (because traders pile into the future on sight of the cash index test bar), so this is not necessarily a negative indicator. - THE WELSH WIZARD (Aug 2007). Tawe
  13. tawe trader
    WOULD YOU SHORT THIS NO DEMAND ? Here is a 5 min pre-mkt ES chart from this morning around the time the UK mkt opened. Ignore the low number of traded contracts, VSA volume is relative and from what I've seen, VSA setups work just as well, if not better pre-mkt than during actual mkt hours. Chart #1 At 8am we have a very high low upbar followed by a no demand (higher high and higher close) two bars later. We have potential weakness in the background, followed by a no demand - anyone for a short trade ? The next bar breaks the low of the no demand. Chart #2 If we add a basic resistance line we can now see the reason for the 8am very high volume upbar, it is as Tom W says 'pushing up thro' resistance'. It is a sign of strength, a high volume upbar through a resistance level. We still have the no demand, sitting there but it can be ignored and it is followed by a bullish 'test' - a downbar on volume less than previous two bars which also doesn't go lower than the resistance level. Resistance has now become support ...... the mkt is in an uptrend and the big players are still long and bullish. The mkt went on another up-leg before weakness did appear at 8.55am. As you can see by adding the resistance line it made me stop and think and question the reason for the high volume upbar. Thankfully it prevented me from entering into a losing short this morning. Tawe
  14. tawe trader
    Tasuki, I am not going to answer for Eiger but as mentioned previously, constructive criticism / questioning is welcome, it helps us all, especially the die-hard VSA'ers. Call me a VSA cheerleader but from a personal point of view VSA (combined with S&R) works for me and has done so for over the last year. How come for the first seven years of my trading when I used indicators and tried tons of other holy grail methods and techniques, I was a losing trader but now if I read the charts correctly and adhere to VSA principles, I have more profitable days than losing days ? It is very rare I can attribute any of my losses to VSA, 99% of the time they are due to my impatience or greed. All the best Tawe
  15. tawe trader
    For a bullish move we need to see steady rising volume on upbars, high volume but not excessive. The following is from 'Charting the Stockmarket The Wyckoff Method' - P.175 During an advance, good quality or increasing demand will tend to keep the rally going. The price range for the day (bar) will be large and the close will be the high for the day (bar). The volume is greater on up days (bars) than the days (bars) where the market traded down. Tawe
  16. tawe trader
    Winnie, Most of the time I personally use mental stops. Sometimes I will use a stop, but a very wide one, to give the mkt room. As you can see from my recent post #1590, that the mkt had a bit of shake-out two bars after the no selling pressure bar. If I had a resting stop-loss of say 5 pts below the low of the selling pressure bar, it would have been hit. Many thanks to CW for confirming the low volume bar in the FTSE chart as a no selling bar. CW, there's plenty of love to go around Also we regard to the recent bickering (again) on this thread between the VSA and Wyckoff followers/traders, I can't see how we can't all be one big happy price + volume family .......... let's have a big group hug and love-in :o At the end of the day, we are here to further our trading education, try and master the art of trading, make a few pts and pips and not wind each other up. :helloooo: Tawe
  17. tawe trader
    Many thanks to CW's (post #1564) for the above. When I first started out with VSA, I tended to solely wait for an ultra high volume bar ie strength / weakness and successfully confirmed before entering. This is great and works well but I have also noticed that a very low volume bar can also give powerful 'clues'. Take todays action (about an hour ago) on the 7 min chart of the FTSE. The mkt is well up and acting bullish. At 12.47pm (green arrow) we have a down bar after a pullback from the highs on the days lowest volume, so far. Following what CW has recently highlighted, we can see we have no selling pressure / no supply. ie pro's not interested in lower prices. The next bar closed up and it was followed by a test / shake-out bar before a quick 50 pt rally to an even higher level. By waiting and watching through the trading day for both very high volume and very low volume (followed by a successful test), it doubles the potential for low risk trades. Tawe .
  18. tawe trader
    Ha ha Winnie .......... now you are asking the million dollar question. I believe rock-solid focus and discipline is one of the main reasons why so few traders consistently win at trading and make regular profits ? Lack of focus (especially when tired) leads to sloppy decisions, mistakes and losses. I know, lack of focus is the biggest cause of losses to my trading account. Lack of focus can also occur after a good couple of wins, when I become over-confident and sloppy. There could be hundreds of VSA/Wykcoff experts and followers just from this thread but only the ones who can really focus day in day out and have the discipline to adhere to VSA/Wykcoff rules, will eventually succeed. VSA/Wykcoff will give you a technical 'edge' but without the focus and discipline to go along with it, trading will still be a non-event. How do we learn to become focused ?? I don't really know (perhaps others who follow this thread may know) but each evening and following morning I make a mental note to try and concentrate and focus on the mkts and not get distracted and sidetracked. I am learning everyday to try and to focus more and become more patient while waiting for the right setup. The thing that's the killer in trading (which doesn't seem to affect other occupations), is that you can be 100% focused and disciplined Monday, Tuesday, Wednesday and Thursday and in good profit after the four days but it will only take a moment of ill-discipline and lack of focus on a Friday morning to end up with a big loss and the possiblility of giving back nearly a weeks gains. :crap: Perhaps just being aware that you need to be completely focused at all times is a big positive step and if you not focused or can't focus, then stand aside and don't attempt to trade that hour/day. I see a lot of top traders are ex-armed forces, which I guess gives us a clue to what's required to be a successful trader. ie the training they received in the area of discipline and focusing when under pressure, during quiet times and when overtired etc. We see hundreds of adverts for trading courses, seminars etc but how many focus/discipline seminars for traders do we see ? not many - eh ? Just my thoughts Tawe .
  19. tawe trader
    There is another mkt I check everyday (as well as SPX and ES) and it is the daily SPY. It is the ETF of S&P 500 I believe and I find it a bit more reliable than ES around the contract switchover period. Yesterdays action looks fairly bullish to me, a big up day on healthy volume. It has also formed an outside day which maybe worth taking note of. Regards Tawe
  20. tawe trader
    I regret saying this, I shouldn't be negative and stoop to Tradeguider bashing, they haven't done me any harm. ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Going back to my earlier post, my losing trade, I hope I expressed the fact that it was not VSA that failed in this instance but ME by not sticking to the VSA entry rules. Tawe
  21. tawe trader
    Thanks CW for dissecting things a bit more and yes in hindsight there was a fine upthrust to short. I thought I'd post a recent losing trade of mine to highlight the fact that even though VSA as a technical method in IMHO is very good but without discipline / patience we are just gambling and not trading. It's that old human weakness element thing again. In this case I thought I'd 'jump-the-gun' and get in at a reasonable price level instead of waiting another 15 mins for the 'test' to be confirmed and the mkt possibly higher - greedy ol' impatient Tawe :doh: There will be VSA trades that are entered according to the rules (after successful tests) that still fail but that's why we need to use stops. If VSA worked 100% of the time then TG wouldn't need to travel around the world trying to sell any of their software. They would trade their own accounts from a sunny island whilst sipping cocktails ................
  22. tawe trader
    Here's a long trade that I took yesterday afternoon on the 15 min FTSE Future. My main timeframe is 15 min but I also have open 7 min (1/2 of the 15) 10 min and a 60 min timeframe for overall trend. I also check the daily each night. Chart #1 At 14.15 (white arrow) we have a wide spread downbar, down into the lowest point of the day and the highest volume since the opening bar at 8am. The close is off the low. The next bar closes up. 14.45 - Test bar (green arrow), there is less volume than the previous two bars, the FTSE makes a new low (by 1 pt) but closes in the upper portion of the bars range. I went long at 5478 a couple of seconds before this 15 min bar finished. Chart #2 The mkt moved up to resistance and I quickly had a 12 pt gain but I held on, looking for a decent rally but the mkt turned down and things didn't look to good. I got out for a 13 pt loss just before the mkt tanked !!! The lesson here is one of impatience, I didn't wait for the test bar to be confirmed before entering. VSA didn't fail in this case, I did by being too quick to enter. If I had waited another 15 mins to see if the next bar closed up I would have seen that it didn't and wouldn't have gone long. :crap: In hindsight this was a good place to go short, a failed test is a sign that the mkt is still weak. Tawe
  23. tawe trader
    I did place a question mark by my note. There was obviously still more supply than demand in the mkt as it went down a bit lower but hidden buying did appear on the 1.50pm bar, as the next bar closed up and the 1.50pm bar lows wasn't penetrated. VSA does not encourage you to fade monster bars - as you put it. VSA teaches you to only enter after seeing a ultra high volume wide spread up / down bar AFTER it has been confirmed by a successful test bar. I agree, picking tops and bottoms is very, very dangerous. The current thread discussion was regarding, no supply and test's. The 'cherry picked' example I have shown is something I've had in my head for the last couple of weeks due to the very subtle nature of the (sly) test and also it bugged me for a while because I missed seeing it, in realtime. I personally don't have anything to gain by going back and only cherry picking VSA setups that have been successful. I am not an employee of Tradeguider, I not even a customer of TG and I don't (and never have) owned their software. I haven't a blog, website, book / course / subscription service or anything else to sell, so I have nothing to gain by promoting VSA. After many frustrating years of stumbling around, trying so many different indicators and methods I was very lucky to come across VSA last year which opened my eyes to supply & demand and helped to turn me from a losing to profitable trader. VSA is not the holy grail but if I have a losing day, 99% of time it will be down to my impatience, lack of focus or discipline. So now I would just like to give something back and if I can be of some small help to any new traders out there, if by posting a few 'cherry picked' charts and somebody learns from it then great. Yes it's a free world (well to most of us anyway) and nobody is forcing you to trade via VSA or visit this thread. Lars, this really got my goat up the other day. You can criticise me or VSA all day long for all I care but to make the above statement after recently coming into this VSA thread I thought was a bit out of order. Have you read all the free posts and charts by Eiger ?? These posts would have taken him many, many hours of his spare time to compile and yes I know his background but I have never seen him 'plug' anything service of his here on TLab. Tawe
  24. tawe trader
    NO SUPPLY FOLLOWED BY A (VERY SUBTLE) TEST - 10 min FTSE Future from Thurs 14th Aug Chart #1 At 1.30pm on bad news there is a very wide spread ultra high volume downbar, followed by high volume sideways to slightly down action. At 2.20pm there is a no supply bar. A narrow spread, down close on very low volume and less than the previous two bars. The next bar makes an ever-so slight lower low (1 pt) but closes in the upper portion of the range. The volume is higher but not excessive. Was this a crafty move by the marketmakers to draw in new shorts ? Would you be thinking about going long after seeing the recent mkt action ? Chart #2 As you can seen the mkt did rally to it's 4.30pm cash mkt close. There was a good 45+ pts available to the longside and any shorts entered near the lows would have been well underwater. Regards Tawe .
  25. tawe trader
    Hello Danxg, Yes you are correct, in that a true definition of a VSA 'test' has to have a lower low and like you said, it's the 'probing' lower that is the critical action. Prices have been marked down to new lows and no large scale selling has been found. A test bar also requires it's close to be in the middle to upper portion of the bar. It can also have slightly higher volume (but not too high) than the previous bar. Again, like you mentioned this VSA test bar can also be known as a Wykcoff spring. I apologise for not being more clear but in my little head I tend to lump no supply bars and Wykcoff spring bars together, as 'long' tests even though there are slight variations. They both are a signal to me (combined or on their own) to get ready for going long. I have an excellent example of a ultra high volume downbar followed by a no supply followed by a 'subtle' test bar and a good sized rally. It occured the other day on the FTSE on a 10 min timeframe. I will post the chart later as I am not currently at my main pc. Tawe
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