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tawe trader

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Everything posted by tawe trader

  1. tawe trader
    I'm no expert also, but what I have noticed is that when we have 'normal' mkts the Taylor method is worth following or keeping an eye on and VJ I do like the sound of your ideas above. But the method tends to fail in a runaway bear or bull mkt (or strong mkt phase), ie 5, 6, 7 down closes etc.
  2. tawe trader
    Not too shabby, at all !!!! I'll have to do some swotting up as well, but it looks like it could tie-in nicely with VSA. Best regards Tawe
  3. tawe trader
    Thanks BearBull, I picked up my info from reading material by Linda B. Raschke (who is a big Wyckoff fan) and George Angell. Both of them, based it on the Taylor Trading Techique. I have quickly slimmed thro' Taylors book, but not studied it in depth. Cheers Tawe
  4. tawe trader
    I know it's a pretty basic rule and observation but I've read about it and seen it happening time and time again. When the mkt is in what I call a bullish phase (up-leg), the mkt opens down (to buy). When the mkt is in a bearish phase (down-leg), the mkt opens up (to sell into). Take todays FTSE, it opened down approx. 60pts on fairly low volume and it is currently up 2.4%. Tawe
  5. tawe trader
    Hello Eiger, Is this something to do with the bond mkt closing ? I like it, I guess the first loss is the best loss. Nice to have you back from your hols. It sounds like you had a great trip. Regards Tawe
  6. tawe trader
    Does recent P+V action on the ES give us some clues for a possible pre-xmas rally ? Chart #1 - Daily The Daily ES has a down day (down close) on Thursday (green arrow) on less volume than the previous two days. After the mkt closed, it could be looked at as less selling pressure. Last Friday, after some dreadful jobs news and going lower, the mkt reversed and closed up. This can be seen to confirm Thursday as a no supply day. Chart #2 - 60 min What if we drop down a timeframe and look at the intra-day action of last Friday. We can see that after the initial lower opening, during the next hour, the mkt found some support from Tuesday's low and selling pressure seemed to subside. The 60 min bar closed down and the volume was less than the previous two bars. The next bar closed up, which confirmed the low bar as a no supply. On this timescale, a high risk long entry could be on the break of high of the low bar, around the 830 level. A more conservative entry would be to wait for the next bar to close up (confirming the NS) before going long. Also, the overhead supply line was broken late Friday on both the daily and 60 min charts. Tawe
  7. tawe trader
    D-x, Your English is hell of a lot better than my French Regards Tawe
  8. tawe trader
    Yes they extended the Futures mkt up to 9pm since June. Volume drops off dramatically once the cash mkt closes around 4.30pm, so I base my S&R and pivots on prices from the 8am opening to 4.35pm due to the fact this is time that the UK's shares are traded. Post 4.35pm the FTSE future really does mirror the US mkts but it's worth taking note of.
  9. tawe trader
    JJ, I'm not quite sure what you mean, but seeing as the FTSE is at about 1/2 the value of the Dow, then 1 FTSE pt would be about 2 Dow or 2 YM pts. Also, a direct access FTSE full contract of 1 pt, costs £10, so a 19 pt risk would result in £190 risk. Tawe
  10. tawe trader
    Hakuna, Considering current mkt conditions I think a fairly wide stop is required and everyone has their own risk tolerances. In this case:- Short entry (green line) at 3930 - that is 1pt below ND low of 3931. Stop at 3949 - that is 10pts above ND high of 3939 Risk 19 pts. The upthrust bar after the ND had a high of 3943. Tawe
  11. tawe trader
    FTSE 100 Future (Friday 21st Nov) - multiple timeframe trading Chart #1 is a 30 min chart and there is some potential strength in the background from yesterday afternoon. BUT after an early morning FTSE rally, at 10am there was a high volume upbar nearly into overhead resistance with the close down in the lower portion of the bar. Was supply coming in, giving us possible weakness ? If we drop down a lower timeframe, maybe we can look for a lower risk entry for a short trade. Chart #2 - 7 min At 10.27am we have a no demand (white arrow). Also the next bar is another no demand (green arrow), a narrow spread upbar on tiny volume. It is followed by an upthrust, maybe to bring in some new longs and the top of this bar gives a point from which to draw a new supply line. The 7 min trend is now down. The break of a no demand low (green line) to the downside could be used for a place to go short. Tawe
  12. tawe trader
    Eiger, It's a good job you didn't mis-type the above as:- "I've got lots of ticks" Best regards Tawe
  13. tawe trader
    JJ, You will have to get up earlier in the morning, if you want to get a reply in before me I bet it's a struggle getting out out of your nice warm cosy bed on any cold Canadian mornings - lol All the best Tawe
  14. tawe trader
    Hello Mark, I wouldn't be too hard on yourself. Overall the mkts are still in a vicious bear mkt and downtrend, so going long is going against the major trend. Yes the FTSE was / is looking fairly bullish on a daily chart and the no supply (less selling pressure bar) on Monday was confirmed by yesterday closing up but technically speaking, yesterdays 'test' still hasn't been confirmed, as yet. As for entries, considering the overall downtrend, it may have been more prudent to wait for a low volume pullback on say a 30 or 60 min chart today, instead of just placing a long trade last night after the cash mkt closed, because we have got to keep an eye on the US pre-mkt futures and seeing as they are down this morning, it's dragging the FTSE down as well. Also we have been seeing recently some massive intraday ranges, so the daily FTSE could still be bullish but also be down over 100 pts intraday which could be considered 'noise' in todays environment. Maybe small stakes and really wide stops are required, especially for EOD trading. I was long the FTSE yesterday and closed out 33% of my position at yesterdays cash mkt close due to a very high volume upbar finish. I held the remainder overnight but I also hedged it with a SPX short spreadbet as I see the SPX currently as the weaker mkt. I hope the above is of some help and watch the SPX or Dow if you are trading the FTSE. Regards Tawe
  15. tawe trader
    There may be a bullish situation developing on the FTSE and this mkt has been relatively stronger than the SPX recently, due to the fact it has stayed well above it's late Oct lows. Attached is the current chart of the daily FTSE future with the snapshot taken just after the important FTSE 100 cash mkt close at 4.30pm. Yesterday we had narrow range bar, closing down with less volume than the previous two days - no supply (NS) ? Today the mkt went lower and dropped below the channel but rallied this afternoon to close up and back up, inside the channel (which may need re-drawing). Today looks like a possible low volume test which confirmed yesterday's no supply bar by closing up. Where the FTSE goes from here will mostly probably depend how the US session pan's out tonight. Tawe
  16. tawe trader
    Now he's one big player (Steve Cohen) who you don't want to be trading against, you could call him smart money. I guess his firm SAC, trades such large size and volume, he's got to resort to using mulitple brokers just like good ol' Jesse Livermore did over a hundred years ago, to try and hide his actions and cover his tracks. Here's another interesting Bloomberg report regarding hedge fund closing / selling:- London Hedge Fund Alley Rents Fall as Firms Close Office rents in Mayfair and St. James's, the London districts with Europe's biggest concentration of hedge funds, are falling for the first time since 2005. Demand for space is falling as at least 350 funds in the $1.7 trillion hedge fund industry have closed this year amid the global financial crisis. Client redemptions and forced asset sales have given investors losses for five straight months through October, the longest streak since 1990. Tawe
  17. tawe trader
    I know this is a technical thread but seeing as we study volume endlessly, I believe the following data is kind of relevant. As we know the mkts has been hit on a continual daily basis with unprecedented selling (supply) and liquidation from very large hedge funds due to client redemption requests, take the following as a recent examples:- At Tudor Investment Corp., the Greenwich, Connecticut, hedge-fund group founded by Paul Tudor Jones, fund holdings fell to $453 million from $5.7 billion. Jones said markets face more selling from managers. Jeffrey Vinik, disclosed that his Boston-based Vinik Asset Management LP now held $1.8 billion at Sept. 30, down from $11.8 billion at June 30. I guess it's is going to be very difficult for the mkts to put in any multi-day / week bear mkt rally until the major hedge fund selling subsides.
  18. tawe trader
    Eiger, many thanks for the follow up analysis to your 'spring' idea. There is some similar analysis on Bloomberg this morning:- S&P 500 May Fall More as `Retest' of Low Fails to Spark Rally ---- Nov. 18 (Bloomberg) The Standard & Poor's 500 Index is poised to extend this year's 42 percent drop after a rally from last week's 5 year low lasted just one day, say analysts. After rebounding 11% Nov. 13, the benchmark index for US equities slipped 6.6% during the last 2 days and will probably keep falling past 818, its lowest level since 2003, according to three top-ranked technical analysts. The S&P 500 declined below its Oct. 10 low of 839.8 before rallying last week, making it a `retest'' to chart readers. `Historically you would've had a better charge from the bulls at this point, and it hasn't developed,'' said Jeffrey de Graaf, of ISI Group Inc.`The buyers haven't presented themselves in a meaningful way to show that there's a sustained move to the upside, so the concern is that you just drift here.'' The 11% trough-to-peak gain in the S&P 500 on Nov. 13 was one of 6 `key reversals'' in the past 40 years, according to de Graaf, who defines the term using intraday levels and moving averages. Its 4.2% retreat a day later was the worst showing after such a turnaround by a factor of 7, he said. De Graaf, the highest-rated technical analyst in Institutional Investor magazine's survey the past 4 years, said other indicators suggest stocks will keep falling. They include declining stocks outnumbering rising ones; higher trading volume when the market is falling than when it's rising. As I write this, the ES has been down to 832, at 9.10am this morning in the UK. Tawe
  19. tawe trader
    Lars, I tend to agree with you but there can be multi-week rallies, even in a strong bear mkt, plus there's the seasonal factor to take into consideration. Nobody on this thread is calling the ultimate bottom at the moment, only expressing what they currently see, based on the tried-and-tested Wyckoff method and in my case (via a Wolfe Wave) the possible height / target of any bear mkt rally. Tawe
  20. tawe trader
    Over the last week or so, I have been looking at combining VSA with Wolfe Waves. Was is a Wolfe Wave ? for those don't know, according to the chap who discovered it, Bill Wolfe, the Wolfe Wave is a natural rhythm that is made up of waves of supply and demand that form their own equilibrium. So, if Wolfe Waves are based on supply and demand waves and VSA is based on supply and demand, maybe it is wise to try and mix them both together. I have modified Eiger's (I hope you don't mind) 60 min ES chart to what I see, as a bullish Wolfe Wave. If we have seen a bullish 'spring' at point 5 and we are going to see a bear mkt rally, we now have a potential target to aim for. That is a line from point 1 to 4 projected forward, which Bill Wolfe calls a 'target line'. All comments welcome, good or bad. Tawe
  21. tawe trader
    Well it's been over 1 1/2 hrs since the ES realtime post and that was a bit of a disappointment. I would have expected the mkt to at least rally up to the upper down-sloping supply line. I have seen larger up moves on less pre-mkt volume in the past but then the higher timeframes are all in a downtrend. The no supply bar was confirmed, so there was a potential long entry around the 904 area and a possible +3 pts for the quick and nimble. Tawe
  22. tawe trader
    Realtime trade:- Tues 12.45pm (UK time) The ES has recently broken yesterdays low and we have pretty high pre-mkt volume (+6000 contracts) coming in on a wide spread downbar two hrs before the US mkts open. Two bars later we have a down close with volume less than the previous two bars, indicating possible less selling pressure / no supply. The next bar needs to close up to confirm the no supply bar. I post an update shortly. Tawe
  23. tawe trader
    Lars, Thank-you for posting, I really like your idea of a S&R grid and combining it with VSA for tighter entries. I'm sure it will give some new readers and traders something to think about. Looks like you have still been hanging around this thread after our little disagreement back in Sept. I'm glad you have been able to see how useful VSA can be, if only like you said, as a way of tracking sentiment and what (usually) moves the mkts ....... overall it's SENTIMENT, not fundamentals, governments or bailouts. Tawe
  24. tawe trader
    You're right BF, we are currently seeing nearly everday, big name, 'star' traders and hedge managers declaring massive losses. These are the ones who have been very successful and profitable for the last 10, 15, 20 yrs. Have they failed to alter their trading method to suit current mkt conditions due to the fact that they believed they were invincible, infalliable and their ego was becoming a little bit too large ?
  25. tawe trader
    Why does it seem that so many profitable traders end up down the seminar/course/book selling route ? My guess is that after a few years it becomes mentally easier to obtain a steady (nearly guaranteed) income stream (or part income) from sales etc rather than the day-in-day-out grind of trading for a living. This is such a mentally tough way of trying to make a living and some have said that you should only really be trading for the love of it, the challenge of it, the chance of being your own boss and not just for the money, as no amount of money can compensate for the emotional rollercoaster and daily highs and lows we experience while we try and trade for a living. Even with an advanced knowledge of VSA, it needs to be combined with a bottomless pit of mental strength and fortitude to allow us to succeed and any days that we are not 'balanced' or in the right place, mentally speaking, we will 99% of the time, suffer losses to our trading account. Tawe
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