Patuca

Happy birthday capt Bob!

Gold will most likely head back up now over the next few daily bars. There exist a small chance of one more little push dwn before it heads back up but the odds favor it heading back up with or without another push down.

Here this chart will help us visualize PA. So, what did price do from the bar that indicated weakness and where i said the probabilities favored shorting? Fibs sometimes..many times...lie.

if there is no attempt at predicting...anticipation..forecasting..educated guessing..then it is all a game of chance..a dart board..a flip of a coin..a what is to be is to be and that is to be cannot be known or calculated or guessed or probabilitized. So, trading is a wild chance with yours being as good as mine requiring no skills..foresight..and nothing to get figured out..worked up..or devised. Furthermore, PA...indicators...volume..setups...patterns all mean NOTHING...a waste of time...MEANINGLESS trivia that cannot help atol...might as well draw straws and trade..no need for charts...price action..setups..just need to know the present price..flip a coin..heads for UP tails for DOWN and place your bets gentleman.. Lets keep it simple. A quarter will suffice..A dime will work too. :rofl: :helloooo: :haha: :missy:

still too late? How did that long position go?

LOL LOL :rofl:

wed ...thur.... friday session = higher lows higher highs. I define that as a short term uptrend and would be bullish until i saw it break south of the previous bars low..in this case...fridays (last session) low. Odds favor it breaking south of Fridays low on monday because of selling on fridays price rejection. So, how would I trade this? If it breaks fridays low i would take a chance on shorting and short once it breaks the low. If it continues on down during mondays session and tues i would just stay with the short until i saw a reason to jump ship. However, if it breaks Fridays low then reverse strong back up thru it i would ditch my position reverse and go long. Nevertheless, i say odd favor shorting this session (monday). Time will tell. So what are you saying? Shorting opportunity is over and you would be long? Why would you go long when price action showed all that selling on fridays bar? I am not saying you are right or wrong as you may well be right (if you are saying price setting up to go up). It may well do so. I am just saying odds favor DOWN next session or two. But if it does the opposite of what I think will probally happen then i would be quick to reverse and go long as that would indicate bulls overcoming bears from friday and uptrend will probally continue. So....if you would take position right now for mondays session what would it be? Long or short?

what has price recently donelast few sessions?

odds favor a lower low being made next session thus a possible shorting opportunity. However, if not made rather early in the session and prices start back up then a long opportunity could present itself.

maybe you should explain that technicality to MM LOL:rofl:

Once in a while even mice manage to steal a piece of cheese!

Well now..well now...which way do i turn my charts? I think it went up....

why? Odds favored a move up off wedge bottom.

For next week, at least first part of next week, odds highly favor UP. Wedge bottom.

I would say about 70% of trading volume is algo ..hft ...many, if not most of these being institutions. That is, this 70 percent are daily fighting it out in the market trying to grab their slice of the pie in tiny profits but lots of volume. Millions of shares...contracts..turning over daily. The other 25% of the volume is institutions...fundamental and technical..etc. The last 5% of the volume is generated by pipsqueaks like you and me all most other traders on these forums...the gamut of retail traders..etc. The 70% don't actually give much direction to markets. They are going for tiny 1..2..3... ticks profit on piles of contracts...pennies on shares over and over all day long via algo...numerous hft programs back and forth..back and forth.... The other 25% do move the markets and give it direction. The 5% basically give little to no direction to the market. I may be off on the percentages but i think pretty close. It could be 75..20..5.. That is why i don't worry about hft. Many institutions are not going to mess around with hft. Alot of others will. My only concern for hft is a program going rogue ...i.e. Like what happened to knight here a while back and the flash crash a few years back. Otherwise, hft may actualy be helping pipsqueak traders by providing liquidity....like we really need it...whatever... Yes, I am sure some fundamental firms use algos too..they would be in the 25% and yes they would be market movers.

I travel alot..mexico..guatemala..belize..honduras..el salvador...etc. I take an Ipad buy a local chip i.e. a cell tel chip which i put in the Ipad and add some time. Log onto internet with Ipad ..make Ipad a hotspot..crank up my laptop(since my trading platforms are on laptop) select the Ipad as my internet connection and presto i have internet for trading. Works good enough for me especially if near the larger cities or towns.

retest done..now wait an see....

maybe nice time to buy eh??

It broke south out of the triangle. However most breakouts fail. Odds favor a retest of the triangle apex. Then from that point it could go either way....

mitzy has left the building. Sometime back. Guess he got tired of it all and flew the coop. Are you sitting on the beach in cancun trading?

Why 1260? It is forming a nearly symmetrical triangle on a daily chart. Triangles can be reversals from an existing trend or a continuation of an existing trend. The odds favor, ever so slightly, the latter. The daily trend since first part of June has been up except for the larger pullback a few days ago. Why do you think it will break south? Is it because in the larger context of things it has been going sideways since april with the trend up from june being a leg in this sideways PA?

Meditate..meditate...meditate...

Tyler meditate upon the following visuals. Understanding will come...

Aprox 70% to 80% of volume is now by algos...hft... institutions....Bottom line is that institutions are what moves the markets. Individual retail traders have little ability to move the markets. Except in extreme cases of panic...etc. All day long its a fight between the bears and the bulls..one institution pitted against the other. Both make money. Momentarily one side wins out and a trend starts. Public jumps on the trend for the ride. Patterns form because of human nature and the nature of the markets. A chart from the 1950's i.e. before computers and hft..algos...etc looks much the same as charts from today You see trends..pullbacks...ranges..channels..flags.. triangles...breakouts...etc simply because it has always been that way and will always be that way regardless of the actual technical tools used to trade the markets. Whether that tool is a ticker tape machine or a complex computer or newly devised trading systems based on technical analysis. Institutions drive the markets but institutions have people behind them designing the myriad of trading systems they use. Then the retail traders devise system..indicators. As long as people devise stuff human nature will enter in. Can having a strategy that gets it edge off of trading off a pattern be profitable? Sure. For instance, once a breakout has become a channel which in turn morphs into a range we know that most range trading will become the battleground of the bulls and bears for a while..usually. Many breakouts out of the range will be attempted but most will fail. Aprox 70% of the time breakouts will fail. So, if price has been in a range and goes to the top of the range one can short it knowing that the probabilities favor a breakout of the range failing and price reversing at the point of resistance. If one then actually shorts at the resistance tof the range then ones trades is, yes, contributing somewhat to the selling pressure. However, it is institutions that will drive the price back inside the range. That is, the bearish institutions. The bullish ones will let price drop to the support level in the range then they will buy driving price up. Price is always trying to break out of the range top or bottom hence it s a battle between the bulls and the bears. One can look at the price action within the range and sometimes get a fair idea which direction the breakout will take when a successful breakout does eventually occur. So..a range is a pattern. Devising a trading system off of such a pattern can be profitible and in itself will contribute to the pattern being formed. It can be automated or discretionary. It can be software driven or simply visual. It can be accomplished trading off a computer screen or handmade charts. It doesn't matter. Trends in the form of breakouts and channels....with pullbacks...pennants..triangles...will always be there. Ranges will always be there....with wedges..micro channels.. pullbacks nested in the ranges. These patterns form because of human nature and the nature of the markets and the insuing battles between the bearish and bullish institutions.

it is easier to turn the chart upside down. Plus it is more optimistic and in tune with the american w.v.