aiki14

You can add the puts and calls yourself and get a price for any combination. You're always going to pay the premiums anyway. Some brokers will give you a discount if you buy a straddle but I don't think any are going to give you a break on a condor or other exotic combination.

The "Complete Options Player" by Ken Trester is good although it might be too much of a textbook for the casual reader.

Betting on horses here is done by Pari Mutuel wagering http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Parimutuel_betting Bookies, or the legal Off Track betting add a surcharge on top, on payouts.

Is that supposed to make sense?

Might as well be as all the actual trading is electronic. As an aside, James, I'll be in your neck of the woods for kinro kansha no hi, which as it happens is my birthday. Also going to the Fukuoka Basho at Kokusai the week before.

The NYSE floor shot is kind of sad, back in '99 I took a picture from the window, where I think that shot is taken, and you could not see a square inch of floor . In the pre 9/11 days you could get down on the floor as a visitor, now you have to have an MRI to get in the building.

I'd like to make a correction on the word Vigorish, it's actually from Yiddish slang. The American Heritage® Dictionary of the English Language: Fourth Edition. Vigorish SYLLABICATION: vig·o·rish PRONUNCIATION: vgr-sh NOUN: Slang 1a. A charge taken on bets, as by a bookie or gambling establishment. b. The rate or amount of such a charge. 2. Interest, especially excessive interest, paid to a moneylender. ETYMOLOGY: Yiddish slang, from Russian vyigrysh, winnings : vy-, out; see ud- in Appendix I + igrat', to play.

I have been on the forum 2 weeks, I am an entrepreneur as well, people who make billions impress me. Especially in the arena where I choose currently to endeavor. I am done.

The NY Times doesn't rank colleges, they use the US News and World Report rankings. Best engineering program MIT, been that way for years. http://colleges.usnews.rankingsandreviews.com/usnews/edu/college/rankings/brief/topprogs_withphd_brief.php The guys sitting at the trading desk at Goldman, Merrill, Cerberus and the like are stat/arb math guys from MIT and Harvard statistically overrepresented. You have to trust me on that one.

I have to agree with you, I also believe if you are disciplined and intelligent in your methodology you CAN prosper as a trader. But I also believe if you are not you WILL fail. Can one get lucky? Sure, but consistant prosperity requires consistant discipline. I believe that to be an axiom.

Sorry but I don't agree, and I believe your analogy doesn't hold up. In the first case we are all trading system developers in one form or another even if the system is throwing darts at a bunch of symbols, and I watch the guys who develop the system work the trade desk all the time. You may be thinking of the guys who design the black boxes. Maybe they are the "mechanics" and some other individual pulls the trigger, and at some hedge funds that might be the case, but the top traders develop their own systems and pull their own triggers. Trader Monthly puts out a list of the top 100 traders every year, take a look at their resumes, driver/mechanics all. here's a link: http://www.traderdaily.com/magazine/article/5584.html The "give me a break" comment was unnecessary.

I guess the reason for a book like "When Genius Failed" is because it is much rarer than "When Average Failed", given the choice I'll bet on genius, the LTC debacle not withstanding. That's an argument for diversification not a shot at intellect. I have no doubt that sports bettors,poker players, or garbage men can be good traders, but it would be because they followed a good trading strategy and had discipline in their methodology, not because they were good gamblers or garbage men. I trade full time and will take a gambler on the other side of the trade over the Goldman guy anytime. As a total off topic is it better or bettor? I wrote both a bunch of times and couldn't decide.

I am thinking some of the oilsands companies are good long term plays in the current and future environments regarding oil price and supply. I have a bit of BQI just in the event this thinking pans out

Reaver, I believe the Absolute poker is the one that I was referring to (run by some indian tribe in canada?). The bots are playing in the limit games I would guess, and if they are 5 of the opponents in your game working in concert it can be unbeatable. I am not a player so I don't pay close attention, but thought it relevent to point out to anyone thinking about it.

My experience is that the best traders are math and computer science folks. Certainly it is they who are getting the jobs at GS and the hedge funds. Those are the guys managing my investment portfolio. The fantasy of sports betters or poker players making good traders is a pipe dream based on the fact that anybody can be a sports better or poker player, but few can be a stat/arb guy or first in your class at MIT or Harvard, and pass the interview with Goldman or Cerberus.

Some recent press about insiders hacking the site and the stories of Bots playing or teams makes me less sanguine about playing for real money. The offshore locations and lack of oversight also makes me a tad uneasy.

I play options all the time, but mostly to protect profits, minimize downside risk when holding long stock positions, and to fund those protective puts by being short well out of the money calls. I occassionally will play straddles into earnings if the price is right, GS straddles have been nice gains 5 of the last 6 quarters. I think of them as another arrow in my quiver. I do not believe the risk reward sets up well for most swing trades. If the trade goes against you it can result in a bigger loss than holding the stock, and the time constraints can work against you as well.

Great post, I too would like to see how the 90% statistic bears out in reality. I trade full time and do not see it as gambling, but it is clear from the posts on this and other forums that there is a significant group of "traders" who fall into this category. I think one thing that differentiates one from the other is the Trader educates himself in order to minimize risk and is usually looking for a consistant, moderate return, while the gambler is looking for a quick large return.

As it stands now I think Clinton is most likely, the republicans are certainly running against her, and after the Cheney administration's disastrous handling of Iraq, and the religious right threatening a third party, I don't see them winning. JMHO

Sounds reasonable, nasdaq stocks tend to have more avg volatility. Smaller market caps, lower prices, they would certainly respond to hype with larger moves. Also the smaller less sophisticated players will be in these stocks to a greater degree adding to that. Why not make use of those facts?

Sounds good Jim, hope it works out for you.

There's been fourth market trading for years as well. Level 2 at least will give you a hint at where the dumb money is going, and total view gives total anonymous interest. I have found it quite useful.

I realize I am a newbie around here, But I'd like to encourage the smoking of weed by other traders. I'll be on the other side of those trades potentially, and if my opposite is of diminished capacity so much the better. The market is a zero sum game for all intents and purposes, the big companies employ the guys who graduated first in their class at MIT, you bring your "A" game or you might as well just send your money to the folks who will.

I get it through Thompson Financial but there are a lot of available platforms, It gives you a ton more data than standard level 2 Here's the link to the Nasdaq site https://www.nasdaqtrader.com/ And the fact sheet for non professional traders https://www.nasdaqtrader.com/trader/mds/TotalView/TotalViewFactSheet.pdf

Same reason people fall in love with any strategy, it reflects their personality. Those who "pathologically" take the downside have always interested me. I am an uberbull by nature and it takes discipline reinforced by much pain to be unbiased to the upside. I find the real bears to be a group who are pretty negative in general about everything. The best traders never fall in love with anything but the side that wins in the moment and then they reevaluate and reassess and take the next play that makes sense. Maybe the answer to your question is that they haven't figured out that emotion is to be eliminated to the maximum extent possible.