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swansjr
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Everything posted by swansjr
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I've learned there is a bug in the code in regards to the trailing stop. I guess that will be fixed with next next release. As for the different labels they seem to be working on my charts. "C eod" is "Cover end-of-day" and "S eod" is "Sell end-of-day." Likewise for "S Day Loss" and "C Day Loss".
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Futures I Trade Show & Brooks Book
swansjr replied to brownsfan019's topic in The Candlestick Corner
Yes, I was registered and did record it. I have yet to watch it. The video (.mov file) is uploaded and you can find it here under the video folder. -
Futures I Trade Show & Brooks Book
swansjr replied to brownsfan019's topic in The Candlestick Corner
Take a peek under the video directory for an Al Brooks presentation (.mov format) from a few months back. This was from another Futures I Trade Show. I'll post a link when I have the latest video available. -
Futures I Trade Show & Brooks Book
swansjr replied to brownsfan019's topic in The Candlestick Corner
I've not read his book. But I did see another presentation by him a few weeks back. It was really interesting. He describes himself as a minimalist: Trading from a 15 inch laptop, 5-minute candles and no indicators other than trendlines (if I remember correctly). If I dig it up I'll upload the video. I'm also looking forward to watching his latest presentation later this week. -
Day 7 There was no trading yesterday (Tuesday) due to conflicting signals on my multichart setup and I had non trading obligations that were taking me away from my screen. This morning my charts were looking very promising for a runner as the EC was pushing higher and higher. But it never panned out. I opened three positions for 2 winners and 1 loss. My only runner never got much traction and was taken out with a minor profit of $45. My loss was on the first trade of the day (that sounds familiar). It seems on these losses I'm often too early to the party. Pullbacks seem deeper than there were several months back and I get stopped out often just before the move takes off. Indeed, even today I took some heat on my winning trades. I think one winner came within 1 tick of being stopped out. I still get a little worked up when that happens but I don't think it bothers me like it did months ago. Anyway, being a little more patient may help me. Why press the buy key too soon? It's an old friend. The fear of missing a move. So much to work on. P&L: $127
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I can't say I use the simulated mode for testing my automated systems. If I want to test my systems I simply load them on a chart and let them "trade" as the live data unfolds throughout the trading day. I'm doing this right now to test an ES system on a 5-minute chart. This seems to work well in testing the overall concept. There is no slippage when trading this way so keep that in mind.
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I'm not trading it with real money. I'm only testing it by letting it trade with live market data.
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Week #1 Summary The first week proved to be positive as it captured a decent chuck of the major trend. The best day was Tuesday, pictured below. One week down. Many more to test. DATE TRADES GROSS P&L 5/11/2009 2 -$600 5/12/2009 4 $1,588 5/13/2009 2 $50 5/14/2009 2 $650 5/15/2009 2 $25 P&L: $1,713
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I would like the test a 5-minute setup on the ES market. The settings are listed below. If I remember correctly these chart settings were optimized by Clayburg last fall (fall 2008) and have not been modified since. The first test was started on May 11, 2008. The test simply consists of create a chart with the proper settings (see below) and allowing it to "trade" on live market data. I hope to track the performance over a series of weeks and/or months. Start Time 845 End Time 1500 Close Time 1505 Cntracts 2 Target 1 9 Target 1 Cntracts 1 Target 2 0 Target 2 Cntracts 0 Target 3 0 Target 3 Cntracts 0 Pos Trail Toggle 0 Pos Trail 0 Target 1 Stop Toggle 0 Target 1 Stop 0 Initial Stop Loss 150 B1 20 S1 11 B2 7 S2 13 Toggle Equity Out 0 Equity Floor 0 Equity Trail 0 Max Trades 1000 Day Loss 600
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Day 6 Today's market action was smother than the last few days. The first trade of the day resulted in me going long with two contracts. Oops! That setting on my order window should have been one contract. My first target was hit and I exited both contracts. I decided my next trade would be two contracts again. Why? I have no idea other than my first target was hit and I should have been trading one contract so why not make this one two contracts? Yes, that's early morning logic. This trade was promptly stopped out. Ok, no big deal. The stop was tight on that one. I then further deviated from my plan when I once again entered with two contracts. Yeah, go figure?! :crap: The setup was looking sweet and hopes of a runner banking coin filled my mind. Target 1 hit. Runner stopped out for small loss. Damn! I was also get sloppy with following my trading plan. Time to stop for today before I really hurt myself. Watch those setting on your trading platform. Check'em before committing money. It seems traders who are often better than average make fewer mistakes. Oh, and follow your plan! P&L: $24
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So the first week is complete. Actually, I've been simulation trading off and on for the past month or so. But my book keeping has been somewhere between horrible and nonexistent. Although I do believe I was in the black, lets just call this the first week. Below is the weekly summary. Overall I rate my performance a C. I screwed up a couple of times where I violated my entry rules and there was that day where I froze and could not pull the trigger. These are all classic amateurish behaviors that will need to be addressed. At least I'm recognizing them and at times over coming them. I also have been keeping several spreadsheets which represent slight variations on my trading methodology. All have the same entry but vary on the exits. It's too early to draw any conclusions but so far my current method is a nice hybrid of various exits which I adapt based upon the current market conditions. Namely, the use of a runner or simply scalping fixed targets. Each method performs better than the other depending upon the market. Anyway, I'll continue to track my various exit methods and report anything significant.
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Day 5 Two trades. One loser and one winner. Today was a choppy day. More so than yesterday. Options expiration may have something to do with it, I don't know. My first trade was executed well but was stopped out. I kept my cool and took the next setup which worked out. Again, I had no hope for a runner so I was mentally prepared to scalp all morning. But today ended with only these two trades. Technically I should have taken another trade - I'm supposed to stop trading after two consecutive winners or two consecutive losers. However, opportunity was slim as I was getting conflicting signals on my multiple timeframes. Best to step aside and call it a day. Knowing when not to trade is just as important as knowing when to trade - perhaps more so. P&L: ($15)
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Day 4 Two trades. Two winners. Today I awoke to a market in a slight downtrend but containing a lot of chop. So I stayed in scalp mode fearing a runner would hit a brick wall. I was right. My position-sizing scheme alternates between 1 and 2 contracts per trade as long as the previous trade was a winner. During times I put on two contracts I scalp the first target and let the final contract run exiting when it hits the opposite keltner channel. However, at my discretion if the market is not in a clear trend I will simply scalp both contracts. Today supported my idea that I should use discretion when determining to initiate a runner. It’s obvious the market is different every day and some days your system will benefit from letting a runner do its thing. But other days, like today, remaining in scalp mode will be beneficial. If during my second trade I allowed my second contract to run, it would have been stopped out for a small loss. In fact, looking at most of the entry signals for today the vast majority were not favorable to allowing a running to…err…well, run. Thus, the importance of adopting a different exit strategy based on the market behavior. P&L: $231
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The video's he demonstrated across several markets showed noticeable improvement. Of course he will be showing the best system impovements, but it is possible. Nothing is stopping someone from also extending the time earlier and/or later in the morning to capture more trades. But apparently even a few trades are good enough to determine the overall daily "mood." Furthermore, nothing is stopping anyone from updating the settings several times during the day. I like your idea as well. Currently, it's not set up to function in that manner but it's certainly another idea. Kind of a majority rule. On the downside of such an idea, what if most of your systems are not performing well on a given day. Say 45 of the 50 are in the red. But only 5 systems are in the black. If you simply take the majority rule - well the majority can be wrong and you will get a poorly performing system. I guess an alternative would be to take the top 3-5 performing signals and use their signals as a vote for when to buy/sell.
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During my previous post for Day 3 I talked about how I was unable to pull the trigger on a trending day. Attached is an image of my entry signals. I entered three of them. There were about 10 signals. Most would have hit profit targets. Some had decent runs. Lesson: Take all of your entry signals.
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Ah, yes! $4500!!! Well, naturally Clayburg has been showing videos of running the add-on on EC, ES and a few other markets with noticeable improvements. But who knows how well it really works. A poor mans way of duplicating the add-on is simply run 20 copies of the Universal with slightly different parameters. Start them all 60-90 minutes before market open then pick the best-looking system at market open. A parallel function is "simply" a copy of the Universal system. So, you can get the same result by running many copies with different B1, B2, S1, S2 inputs.
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I've been watching his nightly videos where he has been demonstrating this new forward testing method. It's a great idea and I can easily see how this could dramatically improve the reliability/stability of the Universal. It address the core issue of Universal, the sensitivity of the four critical inputs. For those not familiar, Clayburg has developed an indicator that essentially runs multiple virtual trading systems in real time. Each system is identical except for the four critical input parameters (B1,B2, S1, S2). He turns-on this indicator during the premarket session for about 60-90 minutes. He then can pick the best performing system's input parameters and uses them to trade live. All of this is contained within one indicator. The premise is the market's overall tone will be set early and by testing 20, 40 or even 50 Universal system settings on the live pre market data, you can determine which system settings will be more likely to perform well. You can find the guys at TTM giving a brief demo here: Forward Testing for Tomorrow It looks interesting and may have potential. My current opinion is the Universal is extremely difficult to trade right now. It may be done, but I have yet to see it. I can't believe they charge $7,500 for it! Today Clayburg is giving a wibinar on the new "self adaptive" indicator. I'm recording it right now. Looks like the indicator will be released today. Will there be a clone? Who knows?
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Day 3 Three trades today. Two winners and one loser. My first trade was taken right away when I turned on my monitor. Price was in a clear downtrend on my large timeframe and I thought the money would be easy today! However, once again I entered a trade when the price action on my small timeframe was not in an ideal location. The result: Stopped out! It seems the last few days my first trade of the day is always on the wrong side. I took a deep breath and reviewed my setups. I also thought about my poor performance yesterday. This mental exercise then resulted in me becoming gun-shy as I watched several opportunities appear before my eyes, yet I did not take them. "Oh there is a setup but it looks like price may reverse against my primary trend. I better stay out." Those types of words filled my head and I sat on my hands. Down the market went. After two hours of this it dawned on me I was gun-shy and the trend was still intact. Yes, it only took me two hours to notice this. I then said to myself, I don't know when the trend will end and I must take the next opportunity. So I did just that and my two consecutive winners then followed. Today was a day of breaking free from paralysis caused by over analysis! In retrospect this was one of those mornings where the primary trend persisted for hours. My setups, if I took them, would have allowed me to bank some decent coin today. But due to fear of not wanting to continue my string of loses from yesterday (also know as the fear of not wanting to be wrong) I became incapable of action for a good amount of time. On the positive side I did recognize the mental cage I had locked myself into. More importantly, I then realized I had the key to my escape within back pocket all along. P&L: $188
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No doubt Tams! I've been unable to make this thing reliable as it currently exists. I do think there is some merit to focusing my energies on EC as apposed to the stock indexes simply because EC seems to trend more.
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Yeah, the other half is the number of "big" traders participating in a given move, right? Anyway, EOT does have some great indicators from what I’ve seen. You're right about coding this up as being part of the fun. So, now I have to ask, are we having fun yet?
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Thanks for the input. I understand that name-calling can be destructive. I think I take losses fairly well, particular once I’m “beyond” the event. During the heat of the moment I’ll act emotionally about my loss. But now I’ve accepted the loss and I’m not dwelling on it at all. Months ago a poor trade would linger with me all day. I know I’ve gotten better about that. I appreciate the concept that this should be treated as a learning experience. I agree and I hope I’m taking advantage of that. You’re right about the lower highs and lower lows being made. My 89 sma was rolling over too. I know better than to enter when I see this. Below is an explanation of why I was going long. I was looking at my highest timeframe and you can see price was in a clear up-trend and coming down to test the midline. The price action did bounce off the midline, as it often does during a strong push up like this. I was just too early. I should have waited from my usual confirmation on my shorter timeframe, which would have been to wait for price to climb back to my 89sma. I know better. I was “sure” but the market was telling me – not yet! I was too eager and should have waited a bit. As you see the EC did rally and I missed out. But so be it. There is always tomorrow. Again this goes back to my Thanks again for taking the time to write.
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Since I have some time this morning due to my abysmal performance this morning I will look into those threads. I had a feeling that if the money is coming easy I should simply continue trading. It is those types of days that make-up for crappy trading days like today. Oh, I will be watching my %win ratio. Thanks again for the information.
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Day 2 This morning right off the bat I traded like a fool. My initial entry was stopped out. OK, this should be a signal to me that my assumptions are wrong and I should reexamine my higher timeframes and/or sit on the sidelines and allow the market to give me more information. Well, I immediately entered again because I was sure of my analysis. Dumb! And I got whacked with two stops right in a row. Done for the day. The urge is strong to continue trading until I get a winner. But reluctantly I stop. In retrospect, the higher timeframes were giving plenty of warning that I would be better waiting for things to develop more. For example on my highest timeframe, it appears price was moving down to test the midline on my Keltner Bands – which of course it did. Doing nothing would have been better. As I write this price is bouncing strong of the midline and now would have been the time to go long. :doh: At times I’m too cautious while other times I’m too aggressive. Reading the market and making the proper judgment with a clear head is what would have helped me here. I know what to look for, but being objective 100% all of the time is difficult. Two long trades with single contracts. Both stopped out. P&L: (229.80)
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Day 1 Trading this morning was not too bad. I played by the rules and made a little money. I’m feeling good about starting this thread and l’m looking forward to improving my trading. Trade #1 My first trade was entered too early in retrospect. I got stopped out as the pullback went deeper than I thought. Trade #2 Right after my first loss I immedenly shorted again and hit my profit target1. Trade #3 The next setup I risked two contracts as it appeard the a short term bottom was in and bulls were becoming more aggressive. The first target was hit and the runner was taken out on a trailing stop. P&L: $102
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Ah, good. The position sizing rule is simply a numeric sequence that repeats forever. My money management rules (as they stand now) simply have me halt trading after two wins and it is these rules that I follow in regards to halting trading for the day. But this brings up another point that I often find confusing. When to stop trading? When I'm losing I walk way from the table after hitting my day loss - this makes sense. But, what do people do if they are doing well? For example, there have been times when I'm in sync with the market and trades execute flawlessly. I often hit my goal within 10 or 15 minutes of trading. I'm tempted to continue to trade but often simply stop. I would imagine that knowing when to press on when things are going smooth is a discretionary decision that good traders do. Any thoughts?