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ljyoung
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Everything posted by ljyoung
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As I attempted to clarify earlier and will do so again now, the use of the terminology 'in between' has less to do the with the speed of the fractal and more to do with the functional (read visual) position of the fractal. There was not then nor is there now any argument about the internal structure of the fractal. If others do not see the situation like this then they are most welcome to construct their own way of describing what is before them.
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An invalidated turning point (incompletion in the face of completion) is frequently due to a neglected IT or LT RTL which as best I can ascertain was the case here.
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The close of the bar in question is NOT in the overlap zone. Look at Jack's CP4. It's all laid out there. How can you have any pudding if you don't eat yer meat?
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I agree with romanus and ehorn that the first leg up is done. The termination was quick and clean as opposed to the schlock we have been wading through (as 5 min ES traders) for the past few days.
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No. Definitely sleep deficit which admittedly can be a pathway to previously unexplored realms of the mind. In fact I was thinking of your 8-26 chart. Which RTL are you speaking of, aside from which such an event [bounce - no bounce] sounds like a consequence of something?
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Hey rs5. Not that it's particularly of consequence but my thanks to you was occasioned by not enough sleep and pressing the wrong icon:doh:. In any case your original interpretation though not unreasonable was erroneous but you already know that. If I might be so bold as to suggest that if you can determine why the FTT at 13:20 on 8-26 was faux for a traverse completion while the FTT at 11:05 on 8-27 was not, then deciphering the myriad of x2x2y2x sequences may become more straightforward. IMO, rigorous attention to how one draws one's tapes and hence constructs one's channel lines can facilitate the correct deconvolution of the Gaussians. The two are inextricably linked.
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Our charts are quite different but I do see what you are saying. cnms2's 'slide' is a quick way to see that there was no completion but that is also evident without 'sliding'. FWIW, the uptape I am referring to began late in the afternoon of 8-19 and is still incomplete.
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Another approach would be to ask yourself whether there was evidence of completion of the uptape at EOD yesterday. If you thought yes then it would appear that you were wrong. Then the question becomes, why. If you saw no evidence for completion, then this AM was simply the making of yet another P2 and at EOD today you ask yourself the same question you did yesterday. Has there been completion?
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The reason I don't post charts on this thread is because I formulate the Gaussian distributions in my head. The reason why I formulate the Gaussian distributions in my head has been elaborated on elsewhere and will not be repeated here. I am not and never have advised anyone to do what I do with respect to anything having to do with the theory or the method. That said, when you look at a 'stick bar' chart taken in isolation there exists the possibility that when context is superimposed (like the bar OHLC, like the presence of other constructions, etc.), the answers to your questions will become apparent.
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You have said it yourself that the 13:10 bar can't be a P3 on your trading fractal which is exactly what I said, albeit in a slightly different fashion. You could fan out the RTL (because the break was made on increased volume) only after the 'new' P2 was made. So was the fact that you couldn't construct an FTT with the 13:10 bar in effect telling you that it couldn't be the 'real' P3 and that you should anticipate a 'new' P2 somewhere down the road, which is in fact what heppened?
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There are two processes taking place here (as there always are), an upthing and a downthing. The downthing broke (pierced and closed below) the RTL of the upthing but that's as far as it went because the downthing had completed. Multiple b2b's followed, occasioning, due to the magnitude of the price change, a fanout of the upthing RTL and the creation of a 'new' P2 for the upthing. The terminal bar of the completed downthing was in fact a 'new' P3 of the upthing but as we have already noted, a 'new' P2 for the upthing has been formed and so now we are looking for another 'new' P3 for the upthing. As to your question as to why this entire process was not associated with an FTT of the 'downthing', one answer would be another question. Why should it be?
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The b2b is intrabar.
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In this particular case you don't need Gaussians to understand what is being said. Use Spyder's Gaussian representations. While at first glance Jack's chart - without the Gaussians - may appear rather trivial, I assure you it isn't. In fact it readily explains one of your questions from earlier today. Figure it out.
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rs5, the 'chart' is immediately above the annotation post. It is a rather important one and following on from Jack's suggestion, I have a copy dutifully placed on the inside of my 'daily work' 3-ring binder, facilitating the 'slow osmosis' process by which I learn.
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Open and Free Discussion on Volume
ljyoung replied to brownsfan019's topic in The Candlestick Corner
Thanks for your input Hal. Anyone can say whatever they want in response to my questions. If you are an edge trader you use stops and targets and that's just the way it is and I agree it is non-trivial. -
Open and Free Discussion on Volume
ljyoung replied to brownsfan019's topic in The Candlestick Corner
So depending on your trading style you'd say, "Well, I'm going to stay in this trade until I make so many ticks or points, then exit, unless I get stopped out first." Correct? -
Some days the show appears to be run by a guy named Klaus, while on others it's a drug-crazed hippee or Mr. Magoo. Same show. Different pacing. Thank you. Thank you very much. Thank you.
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I'll go with randomly picked.:spam:
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Yes. That was a sneaky one, but once again, PV comes to the rescue. It is historically interesting that the 15 min synch wait espoused by Jack is of a length equal to the old 15 min 'retail quote delay'. Coincidental perhaps, but it is surprising (or not) how often the bar 4 break gets one going in the correct direction.
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Open and Free Discussion on Volume
ljyoung replied to brownsfan019's topic in The Candlestick Corner
By swing sizes, do you mean volume? -
Open and Free Discussion on Volume
ljyoung replied to brownsfan019's topic in The Candlestick Corner
So do you disregard what has happened between 4:15 PM and 9:30 AM (all times discussed here are ES(D)T) with respect to it having an impact on how you trade? Obviously I don't know what sort of trader you are and if you were a scalper it may be that if a new contract high was made at 4 AM, the time itself wouldn't concern you as much as the fact that a new high was put in. Another question if you will. From 4:00 PM till 4:15 PM, is it true that futures traders are relatively free of the 'influence' of the cash market, not unlike the equity players getting rid of the bondsmen at 15:00? If so, of what consequence, if any, is the price (P) or price + volume (PV) action during this 15 minutes for the next day's open? Is it a 'special' time, because the reality is that futures palyers are going to be without the 'influence' of the cash market until 9:30 AM the next day? -
Hey ehorn. Tell me that you nailed the PFC for yesterdy's open and I'll put you on my Christmas card list with possibly a tiny gift tacked on. All kidding aside, nice grab from the pool.
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Open and Free Discussion on Volume
ljyoung replied to brownsfan019's topic in The Candlestick Corner
Just for fun, what is the 'day' or the time frame if you will, for people who trade the equity index futures markets (say ES for example) using price or price + volume? Is it 9:30 AM - 4:15 PM EST or is it a 'CME' day, which for practical purposes begins and ends at 4:15 PM EST (the 'fix or settlement' and the 'nap time' are considered to be part of the next day)? CME Globex (ETH)MON-THURS: 5:00 p.m.-3:15 p.m. & 3:30 p.m.-4:30 p.m. (Daily maintenance shutdown 4:30 p.m.-5:00 p.m.) SUN: 5:00 p.m.-3:15 p.m. What I'm getting at is where (what time frame) do traders 'get' the information that they use to trade? -
Thanks for posting romanus. Our errors were of a different type. Annotative (yours) vs oversight (mine). Again I continue to be amazed at the girth and staying power of these tapes. If memory serves me correctly, it was Jack who mentioned something along the lines of a "... a VE is (like) a 4 and (depending upon the level of expertise of the trader) a HOLD." My failing memory forces the paraphrase and the bracketed additions, but I think what I've said is correct. See you at the starting gate tomorrow, or perhaps a bit before.
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I long ago gave up the 'think like I think and you'll know' way of doing things. As for knowing where I sit mentally, what you know is how I think compared to how you think as it relates to the market. If I don't match up, it's something I can live with quite comfortably. As for posting what I think, it would seem to me that that is what a thread is about. When I err, I admit the error and move on. People who are never wrong, deceive not only themselves but those about them. It leads to confusion. As for who cares less, who cares. I understand that you are speaking about something quite different than tapes vs traverses. Again, I don't really care what it is that you are talking about. So I will work on the delineation and perhaps the other 'separate' thing will appear in a dream some night. So anyhows, EOD found me looking at an incomplete down tape. How about yourself?