smoothdrive

Hello Ravin, Good input. That VSA material is very interesting. I haven't even had a chance to come by since my last post as I'm a dirty rotten government staffer and it's budget time -- long days for another week or two - and then I can do some homework : ) Had a little time tonight, and put down the last 60 or so days of GE OHLC data in excel; batched them into groups of 10; picked the lowest low in each 10; created the B S SS etc. Bottom line: You have the 3 day cycles coming and going. So, if one person started at 10 x days and another started at 10 y days they have different B S SS days. (What started this was: I set up an excel ss to follow along with chapter II) I very much appreciate WHY?'s Taylor knowledge and perhaps his real edge is a definative way to establish the B S SS cycle. And, perhaps that was Taylor's and he just never gave up that golden goose. Or, perhaps I'm missing something in greenhorn land. Take care, Gary

Okay then, since no one has volunteered to start assembling the “The Taylor Trading Technique Summary Notes†I guess I’ll volunteer. : ) Now wait a minute – I’m really serious. I started reading the book in earnest today and as I went along I just typed my own interpretations, rules etc in Word because Mr. Taylor’s writing method is --- well, you know! And, just now I got to thinking that perhaps some of you good guys who have been reading/using Taylor for some time might have also jotted down your interpretations. Here’s my suggestion. You send me what you have via private message; I’ll assemble the summary notes under applicable headings, and then I’ll post them on the open forum. No name will be identified with any particular passage, but I will list all those that contributed if they so desire. Don’t worry about typos, editing etc because my dear wife is an English teacher and she can help where I need it. Additionally, as someone creates a new note, I’ll revise the final document. It’s my hope that there are multiple interpretations of some items, as that will enhance the thought process for all concerned. Lastly, I’m obviously suggesting this for my own newbie benefit, but perhaps it will be useful to everyone from beginner to advanced trader. TIA Gary Fox

Hello WHY? As you know, I use TC2000 for my eod data - and there is no "ES" symbol. I tried Google and it appears to be a future of some sort relative to the S&P 500 (is that right). I noted where you said the ES had a high of 1529.5 today. I also see the the SP-500 (spx) had a OHLC today of 1516.15 1523.24 1500.46 and 1514.40. Regarding market overall market direction - and/or overall market risk; now that is an area I don't take a backseat to anyone on. I've been keeping point and figure charts by had since 1994, and I am not aware of any system that helps judge overall market risk better than bullish percent charts. Summary: A P&F chart is either on a buy or sell signal. We add up all the buy signals and plot the results on a bullish percent chart. We do this for all the major indexes. These indexes give us a tool to be properly bearish at the tops and bullish at the bottoms. Again, I know of no system that is better at measuring overall risk than bullish percent charts. For those with an interest, I can direct you to various web threads, articles and books. While I do have a burning desire to learn to short term trade via Taylor - and perhaps VSA, nothing will replace guarding my REAL MONEY with point and figure charts. Nothing! Bottom line: The NYSE, Naz, SP-500 etc index bullish percent charts have all recently reversed back into a column of O's. It takes 3 boxes, or 6% of the index stocks signaling new P&F chart sell signals, to reverse from a column of x's to a column of o's. There is a great deal of overall weakness in the market right now. I had previously moved much of my equity mutual funds to the money markets because of earlier weakness. I will be moving even more now. The bullish percent charts - and a few others - are just flat signaling weakness. I know I'm dead right on this. As Tom Dorsey says - "What is -- is". You can't hide price, and price on p&f charts is falling and sell signals are dominating the market. Gary Fox

Just sent it.

Hello WHY? Thank you very much! A suggestion or two from me for the larger picks would be the QQQQ, CAT or GE. I like your idea for a small priced pick. First, I ran a scan for all stocks in the universe having a price between $.20 and $1.50 with a 30 days simple moving average of volume over 100,000. That scan provided about 120 stocks. So, I increased the volume to 500,000 and that provided the following: ASTM CMGI CNXT CPST CRGN DVW ENCY GNTA IMH INPC INSM MCZ MGRM MOVI NGEN NWD ONT OPTV POTP PTN QTWW REV SNUS TOA TXCC VG ZHNE If you don’t mind, perhaps you could take a peek at a few of these and pick the one you think would be a good candidate. You would have a much better eye for this than me. Most kind of you sir. Thanks and take care, Gary

Hello WHY?, Recognizing that my trading ignorance would fill silos: When you reference the dates and numbers below, is that the SPX? If so, I get my EOD data from TC2000 - so when I get home tonight, would I be able to look at the SPX and follow along? Any chance you would consider picking an EOD stock or something like the QQQQ or SPY to occasionally discuss? TIA Gary

Hello WHY? Thank you very much for the post. Man - you are the Man! I play music in an old fart weekend cover band so I haven't had much time to read the book since getting it on Friday, between playing and the wifes "Weekend honey do's". But, I've got some time now. I'm excited about the prospect of reading your posts with a little more understanding. Right now it's sorta like reading a different language. I get a word or two but ... Regarding "Predicting the market" (my quotes) - perhaps I'm missing something here in my newness, but that is exactly what I am attempting to do! I want to pay my dues learning some method of shorter term trading that outperforms short term buy and hold. I want a method that I believe has a much better than 50/50 shot at winning. For me - that is taking what the price is telling me at some point in time, and "Predicting" where I think it's going. Why else would I trade? (I am a self-admitted greenhorn trader and I've never actually entered a short term trade. I have purchased many stocks via my point and figure charts, but they have always been with the intent of a hold that could take some considerable time before they hit my price objectives.) Anyway WHY?, without getting all mushy here - I'm danged indebted to you and thread starter "dogpile" for making me aware of Taylor. You are "Going the extra mile" to help people, and I for one really, really appreciate what you do. Thanks man. Gary

Hello WHY? Thank you for the very informative post. Per your suggestion, I just read the first two chapters and the Pertinent Points chapter. I can say that perhaps -yes perhaps, I understood about 5% of the material. : ) Whow! I guess if it was easy, everyone would be doing it. It's encouraging to know that the Taylor book/method is your top pick. That says a lot to this noobe. A question or two if you don't mind. a) The first chapter references that fact that it is a BOOK method, and "It is not a charting system". I hope it can be a charting method becuase I'm a visual person. Do you use charts? b) There were references to action in the morning. My problem is my job will not allow me to do much trading during the day. I'll have to do all my analysis in the evenings and place my orders accordingly. So - do you think one can use the Taylor methods with end of day data only? Or, is it necessary to be observing the markets in the morning to determine entries? TIA Gary

Hello WHY? Hold on please!! I'm hear to tell you there are many lurkers here enjoying your posts. I ordered the book on Monday, and my daughter just called me at work to say fed x delivered a package from amazon. So I'll start the book tonight. I very much appreciate what you have posted here and I look forward to starting the book and kicking around some Q&A if you are so inclined. It sounds like the book is a little difficult to read. So, if you were just starting out with Taylor - how would you go about it? Follow the chapters in order/non-order - read a summary form an outside source etc? Also, I saw that you have posted at the VSA thread -- Do you think the two methods can work in harmony? TIA Gary

Hello TinGul, Thanks for the input. I just started to read the e-book, but I don't much like reading books on a computer screen. Went to print it out and that's not allowed. Guess I'll have to order the book. I see they have a bootcamp. Anyone have a bootcamp they want to sell? TIA Gary

Hello, The DOW had a pretty good down day - but it appears that volume was a bit light. As I have not yet read any of the VSA book - how do you VSA'ers interpret today's action? TIA

Hello TinGull and Rajiv, Thank you very much for your input. As you may know, P&F charts do not consider volume at all in their construction and interpretation, so volume analysis is very new to me -- and very exciting. Additionally, last January when I first decided to study end of day OHLC charts for the purpose of creating shorter term swing trading methodologies, one of the first swing traders I read about was Dave Landry, and he also does not use volume. So, all my studies and back tests to date have been pattern based with no volume analysis. I must admit that I’m excited about the prospect of learning more about the relationship between price and volume. I’m also thankful to KPCURRENCY for referencing VSA at elitetrader. I intend to send him a private message at ET and thank him. Btw, Hill provides a good Wyckoff overview of the overall market. I currently maintain 3 bar pivot based swing charts on all the major indexes, and the swing charts have greatly helped me to see congestion (accumulation or distribution) and run ups and run-downs (trends). These swing charts are constructed using Mr. Hill’s rules of construction. Rajiv, it’s nice to see someone who admits to end of day swing trading. I hope to do that some day and perhaps I can steal a little from you. At the elitetrader site, very few members admit to trading in this manner. Do you trade pullbacks, breakouts, everything? (I must admit that I’m partial to pullbacks at this time, but open to learning anything that works.) I know this is not the proper forum to discuss swing trading, but perhaps you would consider allowing me to converse with you via pm’s or e-mail in the future about EOD swing trading. Lastly men, I just downloaded the e-book (it’s free – why not?). Have any of you (or anyone else) memorialized some of the more important rules. Yes, of course I will read the book – multiple times – but early rules help to see the big picture. Any study suggestions? Additional books or training tapes/dvd’s to get etc? Thanks again, Gary Fox

Hello, I recently found some postings from a KPCURRENCY at elitetrader relative to the VSA methods as created from a Mr. Tom Williams, who expanded on the Wyckoff methods. Well, it caught my attention because I’m currently following some of the teachings of a Mr. John F. Hill, of Futures Truth, in his book “The Ultimate Trading Guideâ€Â. Mr. Hill is a big follower of Wyckoff and has created a number of mecanical rules of the Wyckoff methods. So, if I may I’ll hurry along with a little background and ask a question or two in the hope that someone or perhaps numerous folks will respond. I’m a long time user of point and figure charts for my retirement accounts. P&F has served me well and I will continue to use it for my longer term investing. However, P&F is not too good for trading in the shorter time frame from say 1 to 30 plus days. I am now studying end of day charts via TC2000 and doing my backtesting with TC Companion. The process is very enjoyable and I have not yet made a single trade (haven’t found anything that great yet). For backtesting, I’m following the methods of Chuck Le Beau via his book and DVD titled Trading Systems. Questions: 1. Does VSA provide you with an edge, you wound not otherwise have? 2. Have you found some of the VSA rules to be true more than 55% of time? 3. Are any of you system traders, and do you include the VSA methods in your methods with success? 4. Or, anything else you might want to add. I work full time and must do my analysis in the evenings and weekends. Honestly, I don’t want to pay the dues to learn something that really is no better than a coin flip. Also, there is very little discussion about VSA in the trading world, and that gives my pause to ask questions before doing the necessary homework. Thanks in advance for any input. Gary Fox