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I wasn't sure where to put this, so the powers that be can move it if they see fit. I put it here for anyone who is just starting out and wondering what it really takes to become part of that elite club of profitable traders. I lurk on several trading forums. I join a few and make a few posts. One thing that I rarely see is the painful path one took to becoming successful. So for all you beginners here is what becoming successful took. For my fellow brethren that are already in the club have a good laugh. The markets had always lured me as a kid. I would read the paper and make predictions. Sometimes they were right; sometimes not. Then one day I got that famous commodity-trading flyer, sent my money off and took the plunge. My first stab at trading was commodities and I started with $5k in 1991. I was using the strategy as outlined by the guru. The account was gone within a few months. Well that didn’t work. I thought, people do this everyday and make money why not me. So off to the library. I read every book the Memphis library had on trading and investing. I paper traded the strategies I found while I built my bankroll back up. I learned exits, set-ups, position, expectancy, market psychology, and portfolio management. I soon realized that I was reading the same thing over and over no matter which book I checked out. Time to build my strategy. I am ready to do this. I bought a new computer, Metastock Pro 6.0, and opened an account with $30k. Its 1995, and this is my shot. By 1997 I was toast again. The family life went to hell in a hand basket, and I thought I could trade through the difficult times. The result was an account with a balance of $2500. Back to the drawing board. Took care of the personal stuff. Lived like a monk raising capital. Worked nights and watched the market during the day. Took a second job on the weekends to raise more money. Then one day out of the blue, the little red and green candles started to make sense. I saw patterns develop over and over in the same spots. I placed a trade and made a profit. But I had done this before. I removed the MACD from my charts. Placed another trade and made a profit. Maybe I am on to something. Removed the channel indicator that I stumbled across. I could still see the action and new what the MACD was doing and where the action was in the channel without them even being on the chart. I even stopped drawing trend lines. It was just me and the screen. I planned every trade. I knew exactly when, where, and why I entered and exited. I was patient. I became a predator. Lurking and waiting. I took every shot the market gave me. If it started to go wrong, I got out quick and waited. If the market did not give me an opening, oh well. There is always tomorrow. By the fall of 1999, I was consistently profitable and have been ever since. For those that are waiting for the sales pitch, there isn’t one. For those that are waiting for me to expose some great secret, well there isn’t one of those either. What I will give you are a few simple pointers that I learned the hard way. And the sad part is, most will stilll learn these the hardway. 1)Take everything you read with a grain of salt. That includes this post. 2)Never pay for a system. It is just not that easy. 3)If something comes up in your life that is distracting, stop trading. 4)Plan every aspect of your trade down to the smallest detail, and plan for every possible outcome. 5)Develop your own strategy. Don’t let someone tell you that you can’t trade a simple moving average if you truly believe you can. 6)Test the strategy in the market that you will be trading. If you like the results, trade it in another totally unrelated market and see if it still holds up. 7)Paper trading is ok, but there is nothing that truly tests the strategy like hard earned cash. 8)You will have to make sacrifices in order to make it. I still do. In the middle of my learning period I was working 18 hours a day during the week and 12 on the weekend. 9)You are responsible for everything when it comes to trading. That includes stop running, bad fills, limit moves, your PC crashing. I mean everything. See #4 10)And last but probably most important, don’t be afraid of failure. Just do like Edison and go, “Well that didn’t work”. Good trading to you all.

Donald, here is the pdf version of the book, if you are interested. While a bit "salesman-like" in its approach (all of what he claims cannot possibly be true or it would be the Holy Grail), it was packed full with pictures, commentary and helpful information. Enjoy. Profitable_Candlestick_Trading-HERE.pdf

I'm not one to make a habit of bumping old threads, but based on earlier discussion, this is clearly the best place to post a link to the original Wyckoff course: The Richard D Wyckoff Method of Trading and Investing in Stocks: A Course of Instruction in Stock Market Science and Technique. Wyckoff - Course.pdf

Hard to believe its been almost 11 years since we had a great year in this thread. I think of you guys still. I wish we could have a reunion week here for any of you who are still trading ... or even if you're not. Maybe the first or second week of June 2020. If interested, drop a note here and perhaps an email address if you don't plan on checking back. No more forex for me - just stocks, ES, and NQ. As always, Best Wishes, Thales

Here is something that should get pretty lively.. Since everyone keeps telling you that screen time is important, there has to be something to it. But nobody is telling you what you should be looking for. What is it going to teach you? There has to be something that those who do this for a living see that you don’t. Well there is. And just like the magician that exposed the secrets to magic tricks on national TV, I am going to tell you what we see. But before I do remember one thing. Take everything you read in a forum or book, or hear from a guru or in a seminar with a grain of salt. Question everything. Only when you prove it to yourself, does it become the rule. What I am about to share can be found on thousands of sites and in countless books. If you have done any research at all, you have come across Dr. Elder’s triple screen, or some permutation of it. You understand the principles behind using multiple frames of reference. What has most likely not been explained to you is why it works or how to apply it correctly. In most cases you are only given a single example. Single example you say? Yes, when most first stumble across using multiple time frames, they follow the rules of: Use the upper time frame to identify the trend, the middle time frame for the set-up, and the lowest time frame to enter. If by chance you are not familiar with the triple screen just goggle “triple screen +elder”. Trading instruments exhibt three different types of market action in any given frame of reference. You use multiple frames of reference (i.e. Time or ticks) to identify the current market environment. These markets are: Trending, Trading, and Volatile. Why screen time is so important is that all instruments do not exhibit the characteristics of Trending in the upper time frame, Trading in the middle, and Volatile in the lower at all times. They can be in any one of the following combinations at any given time: Trending/Trading/Volatile Trending/Volatile/Trading Trading/Volatile/Trending Trading/Trending/Volatile Volatile/Trending/Trading Volatile/Trading/Trending Or any one of 84 possible market combinations if you consider Volatile/Volatile/Volatile. Like the major pairs in Forex, the combinations I listed are what I consider the major market combinations. The elusive secret that you are looking for, and what screen time teaches you, is to identify which market combination you are in and then how to trade what you see. Or better yet, when to stay on the sidelines. Each combination requires a different strategy, and some may not be tradeable at all. If you are trading across a broad range of instruments, you only need to master one. The fewer instruments you trade, the more market combinations you may have to learn. But you have to learn them one at a time and only add the next one once the first is mastered. But you ask what about Trending/Trending/Trading? Or how about Volatile/Volatile/Volatile? Or if I use Weekly/Daily/Hourly I get Trending/Trading/Volatile but if I use Daily/Hourly/Min I get Trading/Volatile/Trending. One step at a time grasshopper. One step at a time. As I mentioned there are 84 possible combinations. Multiply this across thousands of instruments and countless frames of reference, and I hope you get the picture. You do not have to learn them all. You only have to learn the few that fit you, your chosen instrument and frames of reference. Find the market combinations that are most prevalent and learn to trade only those. This is why it takes screen time to learn to do this, and why each trader is different. It is also why three traders in the same instrument will be doing something different. Trader A will scalp, trader B will be a buyer, and trader C will be seller, and they all make money. They are using different frames of reference and therefore see a different market

To become a full time traders, it will take years. Full time trader is smiliar to becoming a lawyer, Doctors, etc. The problem is many people believe day trading es is "get rich quick." If it takes 5 yrs to become a doctor, it will take 5 yrs to become a full time trader. I have no clue why people believe they can become a full time trader less than 1 yr. If that is true, why does it take a long time to become a doctor, lawyer, etc. According to the Gov report, 97% of the people lose trading in the futures market. One of the reason they lose is, they failed to understand trading futures involves substantial risk and only risk capital should be used. All brokerages and few trading school websites have those risk disclaimer. But for some reason, most people FAILED or ignore the risk disclaimer. For those who are a successful full time traders took them yrs to get there. Plus, they fully understood that trading es is NOT A GET RICH QUICK and trading futures involves SUBSTANTIAL RISK!!!!!! hope this help

Put simply, support is the price at which those who have enough money to make a difference are willing to show their support by retarding, halting, and reversing the decline by buying. Resistance is the price at which those who have enough money to make a difference attempt to retard, halt, and reverse a rise by selling. Whether one calls this money professional or big or smart or institutional or crooked or manipulative or (fill in the blank) is irrelevant. If repeated attempts to sell below this support level are met by buying which is sufficient to turn price back, these little reversals will eventually form a line, or zone. Ditto with resistance. A swing high or low represents a point at which traders are no longer able to find trades. Whether that point represents important support or resistance will be seen the next time traders push price in that direction. But everyone knows this point, even if they aren't following a chart. It exists independently of the trader and his lines and charts and indicators and displays. It is the point beyond which price could not go. Hence its importance, both to those who want to see price move higher and those who don't. The first two posts to this thread address these matters, as do others here and there. However, finding S&R in real charts in real time takes more than just a couple of posts. But one must understand the nature of support -- and resistance -- itself before he begins to look for it. Otherwise, he will find what he thinks are S&R in some very peculiar places. Before coming to any conclusions about what “works” or “doesn’t work”, and thus does or does not provide an edge, one ought to keep in mind that a given event -- such as price seemingly finding support or resistance at a trendline (or moving average, candlestick, Pivot Point, Fib level or whatever) -- may be only incidental to what is truly providing that support or resistance. A fundamental misunderstanding of how "indicators" are calculated and what they're supposed to do can lead to all sorts of off-task behavior. We think we see the indicators indicating something, or not, and believe we have made an important discovery. We then devote our efforts to improving the hit rate and the probability of whatever it is we think the indicator is indicating when our efforts ought to be focused on determining whether or not the indicator is actually indicating what we think it's indicating. In most if not all cases, it isn't. Consider the virgin being tossed into the volcano: sometimes it results in a great crop, sometimes it doesn't. Maybe tossing her in earlier or later will change the probability of a healthy crop. Maybe two virgins are better than one. Maybe six. Maybe tall virgins are more effective than short ones. And surely age is important. But does the robustness of the crop really have anything to do with tossing the virgin into the volcano in the first place? The money under the pillow is not evidence of the existence of the tooth fairy, and spring will arrive regardless of whether the virgin is tossed into the volcano or not. (Db)

Hi Folks, I thought it would be interesting if we had a thread where we could all post charts of potential price moves in real time. These do not have to be actual trades you are taking. The purpose would be for us to learn from one another how to recognize these opportunities in real time. Therefore, when you post a chart, be sure to clearly state the direction in which you anticipate price to move, and the reason you are interpreting price action in that manner. This is not a thread for secrets, show-offs, or salespeople selling systems. I'll start off with the GBPUSD here soon after the markets have reopened for trading this Sunday evening. Looks like a potential short trade if there is a break of 1.6421 (For the record, I am not trading this). The first red arrow would have been a nice short entry as the Cable put in a 1-2-3 top per Trader Vic (easy to see after the fact). The second red arrow swas a second chance short entry on the retest of the break of the "2" point on that 1-2-3 top (also easy to see in hindsight). The third red arrow is the current market as price is trying to find support. If that support does not hold, a test of 1.6389 - 1.6406 would be next. I have some family time now, so I'll check in later and update the chart. Best Wishes, Thales

Here are some trading courses that I know they have experienced trader as a teacher: - Stock Trading & Investing for Beginners by Udemy - Consistent Profits from Stocks With AI Assistance In Just 10 Minutes a Day! by Snap Academy - Trend Following For Stocks by Decodingmarkets Give me advice which one is the best to join?

Many who trade the breakthrough strategy would better understand is break real or false. If you see in advance false break, you can’t open a position, or play in the opposite direction. The volume can show how the breakthrough may be present. The point is very simple. Extra volumes at the level of the break significantly increase the likelihood of truthful breakthrough. Consider these examples:

One of the number one reasons that traders lose money is because they cannot follow the most important rules. In fact, some novice traders do not even have any rules in place when trading. They are simply relying on luck or tips to make money in stocks. Here are three rules that every stock trader should adopt if they want to have a chance in this market. 1. The 10 Percent Rule. The ten percent rule was made famous by the legendary trader Jesse Livermore. He said that he would never take more than a 10 percent loss on any stock. Whenever he broke this rule and let his emotions get the best of him he really suffered a bigger than expected loss both financially and mentally. A ten percent loss keeps you in the game and allows you to fight another day. I cannot begin to tell you how many times I have seen one trade turn into a huge loss. This giant loss often hurts the trader involved and has even been the cause of many blown up accounts. 2. Do Not Trade With Capital You Cannot Afford To Lose. There is an old saying, scared money never makes any money. Whenever traders and investors trade with capital they cannot afford to lose it hinders their thinking. Trading comes with enough pressure already, but betting the rent or the mortgage on a stock simply affects the traders ability to read or follow that stock's price movement correctly. A good rule is to also apply the 10 percent rule to position size. Never put more than 10 percent of your account into any one stock position. This will allow you to find other trading opportunities should they arrive. All of your capital will not be tied up in one stock. By keeping the position size to just 10 percent of your account you will not have too much of an emotional connection to any one trade. Keeping the stress of trading down is extremely important for your health. 3. Learn To Use And Read Charts. While most of the people in the world will use fundamental analysis to trade (PE ratios, EPS, book value, ect) it is the charts and technical analysis that will show you the actual money flow of a stock. The bottom line, the trend is your friend except at the end. Reading charts of stocks will show you patterns and signal where the money is going and flowing. Remember, it is money flow that moves stock prices not opinion from some talking head on the financial news channel. How many times have you seen a company report great earnings only to see the stock plummet and vice versa? Often, the chart will tell us this will happen before it does. Chart reading will also help traders to place stop losses and know where pattern breaks down or fails. Traders must understand that it is just as important to know where you are wrong on a trade as it is to know when you are correct. Charts do all of these things and more when a trader can read them. Every trader and investor should get educated in reading and understanding charts. Nicholas Santiago InTheMoneyStocks

I read somewhere on this site that technical analysis doesn't work for day traders. It sounds like most traders are having a hard time discerning what's important and what's fruitless with regards to intraday signals. I am starting this thread to cut through the clutter and tell you how the markets can be traded in ANY time frame. In this lesson I will explain the two most elementary technical signals on the chart: price rejection and price acceptance. I'll bet that most traders have a hard time determining the general intraday trend and I believe this is due to your dependence on ultra short term charts, such as 1,2,3 or 5 minute charts. Moving out to 15 minute and 30 minute charts one can see things that are basically invisible on 1-5 minute charts. What I like to see on a 15 or 30 minute chart is a hammer or doji candlestick following a consolidation or range breakout. What is the psychology behind the hammer? Price moved from the breakout zone to some new level. Then price then retraced towards the consolidation zone and was rejected (hammered) back into the direction of the new trend. The breakout of that hammer bar IS THE ABSOLUTE SAFEST BET YOU CAN MAKE!!! Why? Because if the market just got hammered away from a price level, what do you think the odds are that price will immediately return to that level? Not very good odds at all. The doji is similar in nature because it still shows price rejection on a lesser scale, but also vividly displays the mini-consolidation which leads to a continuation move. And both breakouts CLEARLY DISPLAY WHERE TO PLACE YOUR PROTECTIVE STOP, at the other end of the hammer or doji bar following the breakout of that bar! Since the number one rule of trading is to always know your risk BEFORE you enter a trade, this is the best indicator in trading. (It doesn't hurt to have MACD confirming your trade direction, but it is not imperative). Just use the 20 period moving average as your trend filter and NEVER trade against the trend on the 15 minute chart. Price acceptance is when the market moves to a price level that previously turned the market around but this time doesn't, thus indicating that the market may still go further in its present direction. This is most useful when the market is searching for support or resistance after a prolonged move and you are trying to decide whether to exit or add to your position. I'll leave trade management for another discussion. Hope this helps! Luv, Phantom

I would think about it, but without a doubt ... I think ETFs are the best option.

Investing in Forex is not a game, it is something serious and study, experience, patience and a lot of discipline. It can be a very profitable business if you are careful and never get greedy.

Years ago I did a course dictated by Fernando Martínez Gómez Tejedor who helped me professionally, quantitative strategies, the information is of great relevance and although I do not have it complete I promise to get it to share it. For now I will upload a part and then I will provide you with the information of the complete course, it is in Spanish, you can translate it: Mega Dropbox

Hello traders, I am interested in order flow trading and I will post some trades and predictions, some articles and ideology of a bit different understanding how price moves and why. May be this forum will be the right place. So, for the start I have couple of charts of recent trade on oil. Also I did some comparison of two different software. Would be great to meet some traders who use order flow too. Lets see. I have a lots ideas and strategies to share. I don't use any traditional indicators, because just numbers are important for me.

So I've been messing with the indicators and learning about them. Made me curious what does the majority use here and why? Currently I'm using Bollinger Bands, Awesome Oscillator, Moving Average, Belkhayate Timing and Parabolic SAR. From all these Belkhayate is my favourite so far, it almost only made me win trades. While Parabolic is almost like MA, I still can read it more clearly on how the market moves.

Actions for the 30th.

Hi folks...Another shot at this GBPUSD long (if triggered). God Bless.. WP

Took this Long on the bullish candle after chasing the entry somewhat @ 1.3253, ..RR still attractive. Will be looking for areas to raise the stop to a more favourable level. God Bless.. WP

Another potential Stab at the GBPUSD Long (if triggered). God Bless.. WP

Guess I would add to have a trading journal. Which helps you have a better understanding of the other rules and help closing out emotions.

Hi, welcome to the forum! I can recommend you the Introduction Topic Have fun and hope we can be at your help!

First, there's no short-cut. Either commit to spending hundreds of hours developing professional skills or don't begin at all. If it was easy, we'd all be millionaires.

In an effort to educate and stimulate some discussion, I'm going to try to put together a few steps for candlestick trading success! Step 1: Identify the candlestick 'patterns' or 'formations' There are a variety of websites and books out there talking about candlestick patterns or formations. Some sites out there with some free stuff that can at least get you started in pattern recognition. Stockcharts.com in particular has a nice section on candlesticks (click hyperlinks): Main Page Intro To Candlesticks List of Common Patterns That's a few free links from stockcharts.com. Those are pretty good for being free. Keep in mind that is not meant to be a substitute for books, videos and live seminars. As mentioned previously, I like the work of Steve Nison. So the very, very first step is to be able to look at a candle(s) and identify if there's a potential candle pattern or formation there. That's step 1. I know that seems easy, but it can take some practice, esp in real-time and esp in day-trading. I would suggest looking at some DAILY charts and just start flipping through charts of stocks to see what you can recognize. Don't worry about stock charts if you just trade futures, you just want to train your eyes to see patterns and formations. And speaking of day-trading, there is one important consideration when using candlestick analysis in a day-trading environment - YOU MUST REMAIN FLEXIBLE IN YOUR DEFINITIONS OF CANDLESTICKS IN REAL-TIME, DAY-TRADING. The lower the chart timeframe, the more flexible you must be. And what I mean is that if you are only looking for picture perfect hammers, you might be waiting a while for a signal. As we get more charts posted, this will make more sense. And from candlestick recognition, there are a couple schools of thought of how trade them: 1) Trade any of the patterns if your parameters are met. 2) Trade certain patterns based on your preference and testing. This is going to be an integral part of your trading plan and there's no right answer here. It really is dependent on how you build your trading plan and what your testing has shown. I'm not going to do the work for you, so don't bother asking.

No matter how you say it, he's a top bloke. Those were good days on this forum back then. Who says all good things must come to an end???? With kind regards, MK

My biggest loss was time. Time spent looking at the wrong things, time spent trading without a plan or without real understanding of what was important, time wasted on indicators, etc. then time unlearning all the nonsense I had picked up. The money comes back with interest, but you can't ever get that time back.

I think this might be off topic but for some strange reason, all I can think of is "Must catch moose and squirrel."

I'd strongly suggest to anyone who is serious about trading to think very carefully about whether using a mobile phone app for trading is a good idea. The interface, speed, reliabilty and security issues make it something I personally wouldn't do. If you have a position and you absolutely must leave, either make sure you have a way of getting through to your broker's execution desk quickly or close the position out before you leave.

I do not know if this is the right thread to post this in. If it is not, kindly move it to the right one. Attached are .txt files of the data from many of the chapters of the original course and the course available on this forum. All of this had to be manually done, looking at the charts(usually with magnifying glass), reading the text, internet searching holiday dates and trying to determine the accurate D,H,L,C,V. The dates(D), on all bar & volume charts should be accurate. The P&F chart data is based on intraday data which, to the best of my knowledge, is not available, but the charts in the course show the months along the bottom and the end of each daily session with circles around the "x". Some of the P&F files have dates included, but those dates are obviously not from the 1930's, I just used those dates to import the data into my charting software, so that I could plot it. Also, on some of the data I entered false data at the beginning of the files so that some data would plot in the beginning of the chart, so one doesn't have to work right on the left egde of the chart. Chap9_PnF.txt Chap11_BS.txt Chap12_US Steel P&F data.txt Chap13_NYT1929PNF.txt Chap16_Anaconda.txt Chap16_AnaconPnF.txt Chap17_DJU1936.txt Chap17_DJU1936PF.txt Chap17_ElecP&L.txt Chap17_ElecPnF.txt Chap17_NYT1936.txt Chap21_ATT1932PnF.txt NYT 1930-1931.txt Chap16_NYT1934.txt

Using this chart of yet another euro breakout, allow me to instruct you on another form of price rejection, the false breakout-reversal. Pay strict attention to the price action around the red arrow. Following a break below the 20 period moving average at around the 3:40 mark, the market moved into a sideways channel consolidation. The market moved up to a close near the high end of the channel range after peeking above the prior range high (the green bar just prior to the red down bar signified by the red arrow). The red bar moved all the way across the range and closed below the entire channel range. Following a short test, ie the "rattail" portion of the subsequent bar, the market plummeted. I sold the break of the arrowed bar with my risk stop one tick above that same bar. Let's take a closer look at the market dynamics behind this form of price rejection. Prior to the breakdown the market tested the range high and even broke above the high. But the key element here is that the market did not FOLLOW THROUGH (false breakout). Instead, it moved all the way in a single bar through the trading range with a close outside the range on the other side (reversal). In other words, the market rejected the attempt to breakout on the high side of the range and opted to breakout strongly through the low side of the range. If the market doesn't meander back into the range and stay there any longer than it had to to complete the test (rattail portion of next bar) I am short this market! I call the red-arrowed bar a volatility breakout bar due to its relative length with respect to the other bars in this consolidation. Also note that the MACD turned down with this vol breakout bar, confirming market direction and momentum. This is a case whereby a hammer wasn't used to enter the market, but was replaced by a volatility breakout bar. In either case, price rejection was the "signal" used to enter the market relatively safely. Once again, the driving force behind the huge follow-through was the breakout of the much larger range that preceded the small consolidation breakout, providing enough "potential energy" to convert to the kinetic move you see at the right of the breakout bar. That's the lesson for the day. Now go locate these opportunities for yourself and make some money! Luv, Phantom

Let's take a look at another breakout. This one occurred last week in the euro. What is striking here is how distinctive the post-breakout hammer was leading to a marked downswing. These are the "picture perfect," ultra low risk type trades I love, for sure.

I like that idea of pulling out the profits. I think where some traders go wrong is thinking in terms of a salary and expecting a fixed dollar amount every xx week/weeks like when they are on payroll. In all my years of trading my returns are never smooth -- some weeks/months the market is just so generous, other times it's incredibly stingy. I'd drive myself crazy if I had a "salary" expectation that was consistent/smooth. Even when I look at my long-term non-traded assets like funds and stocks if I look at the monthly returns it is literally all over the map. So, skimming out the profits makes sense but just don't expect that to ever be a consistent number. Assuming it's positive to begin with! MMS

The problem is Tradewinds, when people start out they really are not in the position to make a sensible judgement on whether or not their strategy is effective and viable. You'll get a younger guy maybe being a bit rash or perhaps an older person who's been successful in other pursuits come in thinking they will figure it out. Well that just isn't the way it is generally. Good point about the commitments and responsibilities btw.

Here is an excellent Indicator for MACD fans. At first I was under the impression that it is a proprietary indicator, but it is listed in this MT4 Indicators site, which is publicly available: http://www.search4metatrader.com/index.php You will have to register, but they are not asking for anything except your email address. This indicator, which I have attached is available under "M" of course, and you will locate it on page 4 of the "M" directory. By the way - I have found that the best setting for it are: 4 - 21 - 1 - 5 The default settings are 10 - 20 - 1 - 7, but these can be up to 5 candles/bars late in getting you into a move. A bonus of using the MT4 site, is that the top downloads for the month/week/ever are listed on the front page, and I am sure you will find something there - even hard-to-find indies. There are truly thousands of MT4 Indicators listed on this site, which does look like an official MT4 site. Bookmark it for the future. Cheers Macd with EMA BDv8_12_31.mq4

Hey, So I am not being discouraging by saying this. But, if you are dealing with such small intervals and tp and sl 3 pips, it is going to be very wise to break down price further. I am getting ready to set up a tick depository and plot the results vs a milisecond time graph and monitor the rates of change between ticks, I think the most important thing before you start your research is to determine what market conditions are conducive to this type of trading style, because we know that there is no one system that can trade all markets. So it is important to make sure you find a time and place where your system will succeed. In my own opinion and from my scalping system I am building, I think range-bound markets are the most conducive for scalping type trading. A range is characterized by a failure of higher highs and lower lows, and looking for price swings almost like a sin wave. of course it doesn't always look like that but with what your looking to do, i think it would be wise to take a range bound indicator and then try and predict short term price moves by using a combination of time series analysis and using rates of changes of different intervals to look for price movement in different directions. because with your current setup the only recommendation i can make is to make sure you use oanda as a broker to keep your spreads as small as possible.

Hi winchie, You don't mention what type of trader you are, or plan to become. There are many good books out there. For technical analysis, I keep a copy of "Technical Analysis of Stock Trends" by Edwards and Magee on my desk. It's not a read thru kind of book, but a great reference book. Although the word "Stock" is in the tittle, TA is TA, and can be applied to anything you can put on a chart. From there you can look for something more subject specific, VSA, Candlesticks, etc. For Motivation and Psychology, I like, "Market Wizards", "Trading in The Zone", and Millionaire Traders". Surely others will chime in with their thoughts.

Daveyjones, this is a great topic. If you've been trading for a while you know that there's a lot of hype about the fortunes you can make by trading for a living. The reality is that like every job or business it is a process of gradual growth. And if you know people who've started their own business, you'll know that they lived like paupers for years, building their business to the point where they could reap the rewards by paying themselves a decent salary. It's the same with trading for living. If you have a profitable system, you first need to build your trading account so that you can increase the number of shares, contracts or lots that you trade. You also need to have an idea of how much you need or want to withdraw from your account on a monthly or quarterly basis, that becomes essentially the salary you want to receive. Once you trade enough shares, contracts or lots so that your account grows on average more per month or quarter than what you want to pay yourself as a salary, then you can start pulling money out of it. But not before. You want to be in the position that even after your periodic withdrawals the trading account continues to grow, albeit more slowly. Depending on the initial size of your trading account, and on the profitability of your system, you may have to build your account for one or two years before you can start pulling money out of it. It can be done, but not as fast as some would have you believe. Of course the larger your starting account and the smaller your salary requirements, the faster the process.

I agree. I've been trading TTT for fair amount of time. I have always found that most folks who fail to understand Taylor fail largely because they are fixated on the cycle, rather than on how Taylor uses where price is in relation to Support and Resistance. For example, I have rarely, if ever, read anyone here mention the "objective Point," a concept Taylor uses without which you will not succeed with Taylor's method, at least not as Taylor himself understood his own teachings. It is precisely this failure to appreciate Taylor's understanding of trading price action that leads folks to assume that the cycle needs repeatedly to be "re-set" or "adjusted" as George Angell famously (or infamously) suggested is necessary. If one were instead to view the cycle not as a set of strict trading rules, but rather as Taylor intended it, i.e. as a critical apparatus through which to view and interpret price action around significant support and resistance levels, i.e. Taylor's objective points, then one would also no doubt understand that for Taylor it is not nearly so simple as buying on Buy Day, selling on Selling Day, and shorting on Short Sale Day. Indeed, a close reading of Taylor will reveal that Taylor clearly (insofar as he can be accused of clarity at all) taught that the trader will at times buy on a Short Sale day and Sell Short on a Buy Day, but unlike George Angell and more than a few forum posters, both here at TL and elsewhere, those circumstances do not override the trading cycle. For example, let me quote Taylor concerning just such circumstances: 1) "In the case of a Higher Buying Day Low, the stock or future shows support causing a rally and a strong close on the Short Sale Day - the decline from this rally, next day, on the Buying Day, fails to sell down to the previous low - the Short Sale Day Low - this rally on the Short Sale day is an indication of a Higher Buy Day Bottom" and 2) "A Short Sale put out at the High of a Buying Day made FIRSTon the penetration of the Short Sale Day High, should be covered on the reaction ... for short selling on the Buying Day High made FIRST is generally a weak short sale." To really benefit from Taylor's method, one needs to see that the cycle, in and of itself, is useless without an accute awareness of price - especially where price is in relation to the open, and more importantly, where price is in relation to immediately prior highs and prior lows and previous closes. After all, what does Taylor keep in his book but a record of PRICE high, PRICE low, and the closing PRICE, and whether PRICE made its high or low first. The primary data from which all else in his Book (meaning the hand written Book he kept for trading and not the book he published about his method) consists of (Surprise! Surpise!) volume, opening price, high price, low price, and closing price. As is the case with all indicators, methods, systems, etc. anything that may be useful to making trading decisions will be derived from price. The true value and genius of Taylor's method, properly applied, is that it focuses the trader on specific price levels and price action, i.e. how price behaves around those levels, and how to anticipate in which direction the path of least resistance lay. As an aside, when Ed Dobson chose to publish Taylor's method, he did no one anywhere any favors by not only publishing Angell's and Raschke's interpretations of the method in the same volume, but then he went farther by suggesting in the publisher's forward that readers skip reading Taylor first, if not altogether, and simply read Angell's and Raschke's essays! What a mistake! This is, no doubt, one reason why most traders who approach Taylor become enamored of the trading cycle, and ignore price action, support and resistance, completly ignoring Taylor's objective points, as Angell in particular focuses squarely on the trading cycle in his essay on Taylor's method. Of course, another reason so many focus on the cycle and not the whole of Taylor's discussion on trading price action is that traders always want the easy money. How nice would it be if it really were so simple as buying on a buy day, holding overnight and selling soon after the open on the selling day for a nice profit, and then go short on the short sale day, cover at the close, again for a nice profit, and then start it all over again the next day by again going long on the subsequent buy day! If only trading were that easy! Angell was the one who first suggested that cycles need to be shifted from time to time. Let us all remember that Angell was selling a primitive computer software program using the Taylor method (dubbed LSS by Angell) and as Taylor's method is a discretionary method, Angell's project to automate trading signals from Taylor necessarily broke down. Angell could only make his program marginally salable by allowing the program to periodically re-set its cycle. The Book Method, you see, is meant for human intelligence, not artificial intelligence. As a further aside, anyone interested can quickly verify that Angell was fined by the CFTC/NFA (http://www.cftc.gov/opa/enf02/opa4628-02.htm) for his sale of and claims made on behalf of his LSS method and his computerized trading system. Why anyone would depend upon an essay that was originally intended as a piece of sales literature for what amounted to a faulty and fraudulent computer trading system scheme for his or her understanding of Taylor's (a real trader, by the way) method is beyond me. But those who insist that the cycle is anything other than a three day affair, or that it otherwise is in constant need of periodic adjustment is doing preciely that - interpreting Taylor's Trading Method through the lens of a fraud and a propagandist. In the end, it is always all about price. If its not about price, then it is about fear, greed, and EGO. Best Wishes, Thales

correct. so if we have established a balance area, a push outside that balance is initiative and we get range extension. the responsive tail means that the initiative effort was shut down. there wasn't enough power behind the move to sustain it, a more powerful responsive movement came in, and created the tail. back into the balance we go. we had a nice example of this today in the ES. at point #1, higher prices would be expected to shut down selling, but it didn't so someone was trying to initiate an upward move. after we got range extension up, sellers responded at point #2 and the upward movement failed. the area that sparked responsive selling lined up with yesterday's VAH (point #3). though i realize there is more complexity to the market and its behaviors, i use a very basic lens for this scenario: did the expected happen? if we reach the upper portion of a visibly recognizable balance area, did higher prices shut off the buying? if not, that is unexpected and therefore not responsive. it is initiative. that's only for the direction. keep in mind how many different agendas are at play in the market at any given time. if, like we described above, the initiative move is weak and overtaken by responsive sellers then that initiative attempt failed. not only has this upward move failed sending us back down into balance, this can easily generate downward momentum and spark an initiative downward move at the bottom of our balance area. i think understanding the market through Market Profile simply takes a lot of time and practice. remember that MP is not a strategy, nor is it a trading system. of course, that's not to say people can't create trading systems based off of MP. i sincerely hope that helps. thanks and take care - omni

Hello Since you don't mention a specific platform (Tradestation for instance) I assume what you really want is a mathematical formula for intraday vol? I am not familiar with Haggerty's method but can offer my own as follows; 1. Go to IVolatility.com and get the most recent IV (Implied Vol) for the instrument you trade. If for example it is the ES contract, then it is approximately 37%....convert to .37 2. To compute a one (1) standard deviation trading range (annualized) 1 x .37 x previous day's closing price (900 for the ES contract) = 333 pts above and below that close To obtain the intraday figure simply multiply by the square root of the number of days per year (365) shown below square root of 1 day/365 = .0523421 333 pts x .0523421 = 17.43 pts Indicates that the intraday 1 sd range for the ES contract should be 900 plus or minus 17.43 pts. or 882.50 - 917.50 Rinse & repeat to obtain 1.28, 1.5 and 2.0 standard deviations and you have "approximate" intraday ranges for the ES today (Jan 02, 2009) Here they are out to 1.5 +1.5 sd = 926.25 +1.28 sd = 922.50 +1 sd = 917.50 900 (previous day's close) -1.5 sd = 882.42 -1.28 sd = 877.60 -1.5 sd = 873.75 Remember that its an approximation and that it "suggests" that the price series is normally distributed (it isn't)..so there are quite a few limitations to it. I wouldn't use it but there it is.... Hope it helps Steve

In this post, I explained to the OP that following your system when things are not looking good is easier said than done sometimes and thought I'd explain further. Today (Dec 12) was one of those days where if I told you the end result of my P&L you might say, nice day. Ending P&L: $779.89/ct after commissions Not the greatest, but acceptable. Now, allow me to take you through how this day progressed and you can see why it's easier said than done to follow your system 100% and not lose faith. I am currently focusing on 3 markets to trade - ES, EC/6E and ZN. The main reason being that I am trying to be more particular in my setups and instead of forcing on the ES only, I find it easier to be patient using 3 markets. ES trades for Dec 12: +1.25, -2.25, -2, -2, -1.5, -1.75, -1.5, +5.75 = -4.00 on Day EC trades for Dec 12: -13, -12, +26, -9, -9, +6, +36 = +25 on Day ZN trades for Dec 12: +21, -4, +19, +10 = +46 on Day As you can see, not the easiest path to get from point A to point B. We know that the shortest distance between 2 points is a straight line and while it's much easier having a day where you start at 0.00 to +1,000 with no losses, that's not entirely realistic IMO. But if you were to look at starting at 0.00 and ending at $779.89, it'd be hard to argue that was a bad day. I posted this b/c in the other thread the OP is showing some solid faith in his system and following it. Once you know that your system makes money, then it's a little easier to do this. Of course you need to get there, but once there, you can do it. In the end this business is first about knowing that your system makes money over time and then doing it while minimizing emotional impact. I still get frustrated at times but days like today remind me of how important it is to keep doing it. I had no idea going into the day that the ES would be so rough today. I had no idea that the EC would make money, but only after a few losses. And I had no idea that the ZN would be like taking candy from a baby. And I have no idea what tomorrow will hold. I just have the faith that I can do the job and follow the plan. As soon as I stray from that, then I am subject to P&L fluctuations not planned for.

Lets get real. The CCI does provide the basis for working trading if its used properly. First: what is required? People trade with the trend or countertrend. Lets say that trading with the trend is easier (longer moves, and more forgiving because if you get your exit timing wrong the retracement frequently won't reach your stop before the move continues, although obviously a trend will finish or do a larger timescale retracement at some time). When you trade with the trend you either hang on trailing stops or you exit at targets that (for most people and strategies) should be at least twice as big as your planned losses. So, can Woodies' use of the CCI help with this? Yes. Its a trend following indicator (its just the current price minus a CCI length simple moving average divided by a normalizing factor (so that reaching 200 is similar to reaching the 2sd bollinger band ... similar)). If you wait until its above zero for a while then the chance is you have an up trend. If you wait for a pullback to zero or a little below you have a pullback of sufficient magnitude to feed liquidity into continuation. So you buy. Then you have to exit. How? When it hits the 2sd bollinger (200cci) or when it pulls back from that perhaps? etc etc So basically Woodie has taken standard reasons for entering and exiting a trade and framed them around a 14sma and 6sma based indicator. They can work. Do most people succeed with them? No. Do most people succeed with any trading method? No. Is it the best method? No. Most would do far better understanding trend, support and resistance, and price action (and where it and volume action are relevant) than messing with the cci. But is it that wcci doesn't work? No. So what has to change? Study price based methods and yourself. In simplicity and understanding lies the holy grail.

To all traders who are reading this thread and who are having difficulties: If you do not have evidence of a consistently profitable trading strategy, then your problem is not "psychology". It is not "discipline". It is not ego or greed or fear. Your problem is that you don't have a consistently profitable trading strategy. Until you do, you can be mental health poster child with the strictest discipline on the planet and you won't be profitable. You have to have a consistently profitable trading strategy. Cranking up your software and logging in to your data feed, then waiting for the open to "see if something is going to happen" is not a trading strategy (or at least not one which is likely to be consistently profitable). Going short because "buying seems exhausted", then going long because "selling seems exhausted" or because the "big boys" seem to be "stepping up to the plate" is not a trading strategy. If you're trading and you don't know exactly what it is that you're looking for, then stop trading until you do. If you know exactly what it is that you're looking for but you don't what exactly what it is that you're going to do if and when you see it, then stop trading until you do. If you elect to view trading as a game, then don't be surprised at how much money you can lose and at how fast you can lose it. If instead you view trading as a business, then don't be surprised at the amount of time and effort required to make it a profitable one.

Interesting discussion this. I have seen and spent time with a very diverse group of traders. From very successful independent & prop traders, traders at firms, traders at banks, average traders, losing traders, losing traders who think they are good traders, etc. The three things that really stand out separating the traders comes down to: 1) Discipline 2) Conviction 3) Guts. In my experience, having an edge to pull an income from the markets is actually not that hard at all. I would go so far as to say it is easy. Some of the most consistent traders I know have particular setups, and they just don't really question it. They don't make a killing, they just grind it out, working their small edge. Mentality is too general a word. The more specific problem: The majority of people have no discipline. It takes a huge amount of discipline to know what your specific edge is, sit infront of a screen and only take those setups. To only trade your edge, entires & exits. I do NOT think the problem is exactly about having a profitable strategy. It's about having a profitable strategy, and trading that and only that. The average person simply can't sit infront of a screen all day, every day, to only take one very specific setup. Even if it were to make them more than their current income. If you can't follow an exercise plan, can't follow a diet, can't follow a study plan, etc - It is unlikely you will succeed at trading until you can address those issues. This is one of the key reasons why there is a correlation between successful athletes following on to become successful traders - it is the discipline aspect. Subsequently, it is also a key factor in why there is very little correlation between being successful in a white-collar job, to becoming a successful trader. Most 'real jobs' (as I call them :-) ) do not require and test your discipline on a daily basis.