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I wasn't sure where to put this, so the powers that be can move it if they see fit. I put it here for anyone who is just starting out and wondering what it really takes to become part of that elite club of profitable traders. I lurk on several trading forums. I join a few and make a few posts. One thing that I rarely see is the painful path one took to becoming successful. So for all you beginners here is what becoming successful took. For my fellow brethren that are already in the club have a good laugh. The markets had always lured me as a kid. I would read the paper and make predictions. Sometimes they were right; sometimes not. Then one day I got that famous commodity-trading flyer, sent my money off and took the plunge. My first stab at trading was commodities and I started with $5k in 1991. I was using the strategy as outlined by the guru. The account was gone within a few months. Well that didn’t work. I thought, people do this everyday and make money why not me. So off to the library. I read every book the Memphis library had on trading and investing. I paper traded the strategies I found while I built my bankroll back up. I learned exits, set-ups, position, expectancy, market psychology, and portfolio management. I soon realized that I was reading the same thing over and over no matter which book I checked out. Time to build my strategy. I am ready to do this. I bought a new computer, Metastock Pro 6.0, and opened an account with $30k. Its 1995, and this is my shot. By 1997 I was toast again. The family life went to hell in a hand basket, and I thought I could trade through the difficult times. The result was an account with a balance of $2500. Back to the drawing board. Took care of the personal stuff. Lived like a monk raising capital. Worked nights and watched the market during the day. Took a second job on the weekends to raise more money. Then one day out of the blue, the little red and green candles started to make sense. I saw patterns develop over and over in the same spots. I placed a trade and made a profit. But I had done this before. I removed the MACD from my charts. Placed another trade and made a profit. Maybe I am on to something. Removed the channel indicator that I stumbled across. I could still see the action and new what the MACD was doing and where the action was in the channel without them even being on the chart. I even stopped drawing trend lines. It was just me and the screen. I planned every trade. I knew exactly when, where, and why I entered and exited. I was patient. I became a predator. Lurking and waiting. I took every shot the market gave me. If it started to go wrong, I got out quick and waited. If the market did not give me an opening, oh well. There is always tomorrow. By the fall of 1999, I was consistently profitable and have been ever since. For those that are waiting for the sales pitch, there isn’t one. For those that are waiting for me to expose some great secret, well there isn’t one of those either. What I will give you are a few simple pointers that I learned the hard way. And the sad part is, most will stilll learn these the hardway. 1)Take everything you read with a grain of salt. That includes this post. 2)Never pay for a system. It is just not that easy. 3)If something comes up in your life that is distracting, stop trading. 4)Plan every aspect of your trade down to the smallest detail, and plan for every possible outcome. 5)Develop your own strategy. Don’t let someone tell you that you can’t trade a simple moving average if you truly believe you can. 6)Test the strategy in the market that you will be trading. If you like the results, trade it in another totally unrelated market and see if it still holds up. 7)Paper trading is ok, but there is nothing that truly tests the strategy like hard earned cash. 8)You will have to make sacrifices in order to make it. I still do. In the middle of my learning period I was working 18 hours a day during the week and 12 on the weekend. 9)You are responsible for everything when it comes to trading. That includes stop running, bad fills, limit moves, your PC crashing. I mean everything. See #4 10)And last but probably most important, don’t be afraid of failure. Just do like Edison and go, “Well that didn’t work”. Good trading to you all.

Donald, here is the pdf version of the book, if you are interested. While a bit "salesman-like" in its approach (all of what he claims cannot possibly be true or it would be the Holy Grail), it was packed full with pictures, commentary and helpful information. Enjoy. Profitable_Candlestick_Trading-HERE.pdf

I'm not one to make a habit of bumping old threads, but based on earlier discussion, this is clearly the best place to post a link to the original Wyckoff course: The Richard D Wyckoff Method of Trading and Investing in Stocks: A Course of Instruction in Stock Market Science and Technique. Wyckoff - Course.pdf

Hard to believe its been almost 11 years since we had a great year in this thread. I think of you guys still. I wish we could have a reunion week here for any of you who are still trading ... or even if you're not. Maybe the first or second week of June 2020. If interested, drop a note here and perhaps an email address if you don't plan on checking back. No more forex for me - just stocks, ES, and NQ. As always, Best Wishes, Thales

Here is something that should get pretty lively.. Since everyone keeps telling you that screen time is important, there has to be something to it. But nobody is telling you what you should be looking for. What is it going to teach you? There has to be something that those who do this for a living see that you don’t. Well there is. And just like the magician that exposed the secrets to magic tricks on national TV, I am going to tell you what we see. But before I do remember one thing. Take everything you read in a forum or book, or hear from a guru or in a seminar with a grain of salt. Question everything. Only when you prove it to yourself, does it become the rule. What I am about to share can be found on thousands of sites and in countless books. If you have done any research at all, you have come across Dr. Elder’s triple screen, or some permutation of it. You understand the principles behind using multiple frames of reference. What has most likely not been explained to you is why it works or how to apply it correctly. In most cases you are only given a single example. Single example you say? Yes, when most first stumble across using multiple time frames, they follow the rules of: Use the upper time frame to identify the trend, the middle time frame for the set-up, and the lowest time frame to enter. If by chance you are not familiar with the triple screen just goggle “triple screen +elder”. Trading instruments exhibt three different types of market action in any given frame of reference. You use multiple frames of reference (i.e. Time or ticks) to identify the current market environment. These markets are: Trending, Trading, and Volatile. Why screen time is so important is that all instruments do not exhibit the characteristics of Trending in the upper time frame, Trading in the middle, and Volatile in the lower at all times. They can be in any one of the following combinations at any given time: Trending/Trading/Volatile Trending/Volatile/Trading Trading/Volatile/Trending Trading/Trending/Volatile Volatile/Trending/Trading Volatile/Trading/Trending Or any one of 84 possible market combinations if you consider Volatile/Volatile/Volatile. Like the major pairs in Forex, the combinations I listed are what I consider the major market combinations. The elusive secret that you are looking for, and what screen time teaches you, is to identify which market combination you are in and then how to trade what you see. Or better yet, when to stay on the sidelines. Each combination requires a different strategy, and some may not be tradeable at all. If you are trading across a broad range of instruments, you only need to master one. The fewer instruments you trade, the more market combinations you may have to learn. But you have to learn them one at a time and only add the next one once the first is mastered. But you ask what about Trending/Trending/Trading? Or how about Volatile/Volatile/Volatile? Or if I use Weekly/Daily/Hourly I get Trending/Trading/Volatile but if I use Daily/Hourly/Min I get Trading/Volatile/Trending. One step at a time grasshopper. One step at a time. As I mentioned there are 84 possible combinations. Multiply this across thousands of instruments and countless frames of reference, and I hope you get the picture. You do not have to learn them all. You only have to learn the few that fit you, your chosen instrument and frames of reference. Find the market combinations that are most prevalent and learn to trade only those. This is why it takes screen time to learn to do this, and why each trader is different. It is also why three traders in the same instrument will be doing something different. Trader A will scalp, trader B will be a buyer, and trader C will be seller, and they all make money. They are using different frames of reference and therefore see a different market

To become a full time traders, it will take years. Full time trader is smiliar to becoming a lawyer, Doctors, etc. The problem is many people believe day trading es is "get rich quick." If it takes 5 yrs to become a doctor, it will take 5 yrs to become a full time trader. I have no clue why people believe they can become a full time trader less than 1 yr. If that is true, why does it take a long time to become a doctor, lawyer, etc. According to the Gov report, 97% of the people lose trading in the futures market. One of the reason they lose is, they failed to understand trading futures involves substantial risk and only risk capital should be used. All brokerages and few trading school websites have those risk disclaimer. But for some reason, most people FAILED or ignore the risk disclaimer. For those who are a successful full time traders took them yrs to get there. Plus, they fully understood that trading es is NOT A GET RICH QUICK and trading futures involves SUBSTANTIAL RISK!!!!!! hope this help

Put simply, support is the price at which those who have enough money to make a difference are willing to show their support by retarding, halting, and reversing the decline by buying. Resistance is the price at which those who have enough money to make a difference attempt to retard, halt, and reverse a rise by selling. Whether one calls this money professional or big or smart or institutional or crooked or manipulative or (fill in the blank) is irrelevant. If repeated attempts to sell below this support level are met by buying which is sufficient to turn price back, these little reversals will eventually form a line, or zone. Ditto with resistance. A swing high or low represents a point at which traders are no longer able to find trades. Whether that point represents important support or resistance will be seen the next time traders push price in that direction. But everyone knows this point, even if they aren't following a chart. It exists independently of the trader and his lines and charts and indicators and displays. It is the point beyond which price could not go. Hence its importance, both to those who want to see price move higher and those who don't. The first two posts to this thread address these matters, as do others here and there. However, finding S&R in real charts in real time takes more than just a couple of posts. But one must understand the nature of support -- and resistance -- itself before he begins to look for it. Otherwise, he will find what he thinks are S&R in some very peculiar places. Before coming to any conclusions about what “works” or “doesn’t work”, and thus does or does not provide an edge, one ought to keep in mind that a given event -- such as price seemingly finding support or resistance at a trendline (or moving average, candlestick, Pivot Point, Fib level or whatever) -- may be only incidental to what is truly providing that support or resistance. A fundamental misunderstanding of how "indicators" are calculated and what they're supposed to do can lead to all sorts of off-task behavior. We think we see the indicators indicating something, or not, and believe we have made an important discovery. We then devote our efforts to improving the hit rate and the probability of whatever it is we think the indicator is indicating when our efforts ought to be focused on determining whether or not the indicator is actually indicating what we think it's indicating. In most if not all cases, it isn't. Consider the virgin being tossed into the volcano: sometimes it results in a great crop, sometimes it doesn't. Maybe tossing her in earlier or later will change the probability of a healthy crop. Maybe two virgins are better than one. Maybe six. Maybe tall virgins are more effective than short ones. And surely age is important. But does the robustness of the crop really have anything to do with tossing the virgin into the volcano in the first place? The money under the pillow is not evidence of the existence of the tooth fairy, and spring will arrive regardless of whether the virgin is tossed into the volcano or not. (Db)

Hi Folks, I thought it would be interesting if we had a thread where we could all post charts of potential price moves in real time. These do not have to be actual trades you are taking. The purpose would be for us to learn from one another how to recognize these opportunities in real time. Therefore, when you post a chart, be sure to clearly state the direction in which you anticipate price to move, and the reason you are interpreting price action in that manner. This is not a thread for secrets, show-offs, or salespeople selling systems. I'll start off with the GBPUSD here soon after the markets have reopened for trading this Sunday evening. Looks like a potential short trade if there is a break of 1.6421 (For the record, I am not trading this). The first red arrow would have been a nice short entry as the Cable put in a 1-2-3 top per Trader Vic (easy to see after the fact). The second red arrow swas a second chance short entry on the retest of the break of the "2" point on that 1-2-3 top (also easy to see in hindsight). The third red arrow is the current market as price is trying to find support. If that support does not hold, a test of 1.6389 - 1.6406 would be next. I have some family time now, so I'll check in later and update the chart. Best Wishes, Thales

Many who trade the breakthrough strategy would better understand is break real or false. If you see in advance false break, you can’t open a position, or play in the opposite direction. The volume can show how the breakthrough may be present. The point is very simple. Extra volumes at the level of the break significantly increase the likelihood of truthful breakthrough. Consider these examples:

I traded signals but unfortunately they didn't work for me. I think it is very difficult to find professional and winning signal provider because truly winning traders can attract much more serious investors than random low-capitalised investors from internet.

Investing in Forex is not a game, it is something serious and study, experience, patience and a lot of discipline. It can be a very profitable business if you are careful and never get greedy.

The forex market is like boxing, if you train well and are good you can earn a lot of money and have free time. But if you go there without training you will be very bad, places to invest there are many, and while they are regulated you will not have fraud problems, however even if you have the best broker in the world if you do not know how to analyze markets, you will hardly avoid losing your money.

This is the most important one of them all.

The most important aspect by far is the regulation backing that broker. I prefer a more expensive but decently regulated broker than a cheaper one in Belize/Cyprus/other places like that.

Years ago I did a course dictated by Fernando Martínez Gómez Tejedor who helped me professionally, quantitative strategies, the information is of great relevance and although I do not have it complete I promise to get it to share it. For now I will upload a part and then I will provide you with the information of the complete course, it is in Spanish, you can translate it: Mega Dropbox

Hello traders, I am interested in order flow trading and I will post some trades and predictions, some articles and ideology of a bit different understanding how price moves and why. May be this forum will be the right place. So, for the start I have couple of charts of recent trade on oil. Also I did some comparison of two different software. Would be great to meet some traders who use order flow too. Lets see. I have a lots ideas and strategies to share. I don't use any traditional indicators, because just numbers are important for me.

Yeah! That's my pleasure

So I've been messing with the indicators and learning about them. Made me curious what does the majority use here and why? Currently I'm using Bollinger Bands, Awesome Oscillator, Moving Average, Belkhayate Timing and Parabolic SAR. From all these Belkhayate is my favourite so far, it almost only made me win trades. While Parabolic is almost like MA, I still can read it more clearly on how the market moves.

Hello forum members I am Rikita Bhave, want to share my trading experience

Another potential Stab at the GBPUSD Long (if triggered). God Bless.. WP

What I've learned so far that you really should have a record of what you've done on the market. Not necessary every position and detail, but the outcome, mindset and the triggers of your actions. This way you can examine your motivation behind following a plan or a gut feeling etc. This way you won't only have numbers, but the documentation of what was going on in your mind while you made a given trade.

I guess Arun ran. lol

The answer to this question is relative. I mean, it depends upon you. It depends how quickly you understand the market and the company in which you invest. If you study the life of successful traders, it is analyzed that it took them years.

Thanks Donals, I'm grateful for any aspects on what to trade.

Actions for the 31st.

Profitable Candlestick Trading (2002) by Stephen W. Bigalow

I love trading... just sayin’... After all these years I’m out of practice, but I’m more adept at taking money on the short side ... and I enjoy it more... just sayin’ ... ... https://www.oftwominds.com/photos2018/ikigai-chart2.jpg ... just sayin’

First, there's no short-cut. Either commit to spending hundreds of hours developing professional skills or don't begin at all. If it was easy, we'd all be millionaires.

Here you go Derek !, the function and A,B,C Function - mbC.txt TTM Wave A.txt TTM Wave B.txt TTM Wave C.txt

For me, just for monitoring purposes. That's it.

Develop a plan. As one goes on their trading development journey and they are exploring a variety of markets, timeframes, and methodolgies - you'll need to develop a plan. The plan doesn't have to be some objective extremely specific set of rules. It can be a loose set of guidelines that makes sense to you that gets refined over time with your experience. The goal is to start acting consistently so you can get consistent results. There will probably be times that you violate the plan for whatever reason and I think that is normal, especially for more discretionary plans. But the key is to consciously violate it rather than getting lost in the throws of the market or in ones emotions. If you are consciously violating the plan you will note it in your daily review and over time you will collect enough data that may or may not indicate that the violation improves your plan. Develop a plan today.

My biggest loss was time. Time spent looking at the wrong things, time spent trading without a plan or without real understanding of what was important, time wasted on indicators, etc. then time unlearning all the nonsense I had picked up. The money comes back with interest, but you can't ever get that time back.

I didn't see this posted here anywhere so I thought I would. The " I Look Back Now " thread inspired me. I read this several years ago in a commodities magazine, I have also seen it around on the web: 38 steps to becoming a trader They are as follows: 1. We accumulate information - buying books, going to seminars and researching. 2. We begin to trade with our 'new' knowledge. 3. We consistently 'donate' and then realise we may need more knowledge or information. 4. We accumulate more information. 5. We switch the commodities we are currently following. 6. We go back into the market and trade with our 'updated' knowledge. 7. We get 'beat up' again and begin to lose some of our confidence. Fear starts setting in. 8. We start to listen to 'outside news' and to other traders. 9. We go back into the market and continue to 'donate'. 10. We switch commodities again. 11. We search for more information. 12. We go back into the market and start to see a little progress. 13. We get 'over-confident' and the market humbles us. 14. We start to understand that trading successfully is going to take more time and more knowledge than we anticipated. MOST PEOPLE WILL GIVE UP AT THIS POINT, AS THEY REALISE WORK IS INVOLVED. 15. We get serious and start concentrating on learning a 'real' methodology. 16. We trade our methodology with some success, but realise that something is missing. 17. We begin to understand the need for having rules to apply our methodology. 18. We take a sabbatical from trading to develop and research our trading rules. 19. We start trading again, this time with rules and find some success, but over all we still hesitate when we execute. 20. We add, subtract and modify rules as we see a need to be more proficient with our rules. 21. We feel we are very close to crossing that threshold of successful trading. 22. We start to take responsibility for our trading results as we understand that our success is in us, not the methodology. 23. We continue to trade and become more proficient with our methodology and our rules. 24. As we trade we still have a tendency to violate our rules and our results are still erratic. 25. We know we are close. 26. We go back and research our rules. 27. We build the confidence in our rules and go back into the market and trade. 28. Our trading results are getting better, but we are still hesitating in executing our rules. 29. We now see the importance of following our rules as we see the results of our trades when we don't follow the rules. 30. We begin to see that our lack of success is within us (a lack of discipline in following the rules because of some kind of fear) and we begin to work on knowing ourselves better. 31. We continue to trade and the market teaches us more and more about ourselves. 32. We master our methodology and our trading rules. 33. We begin to consistently make money. 34. We get a little over-confident and the market humbles us. 35. We continue to learn our lessons. 36. We stop thinking and allow our rules to trade for us (trading becomes boring, but successful) and our trading account continues to grow as we increase our contract size. 37. We are making more money than we ever dreamed possible. 38. We go on with our lives and accomplish many of the goals we had always dreamed of. Most traders will identify with this list and should be able to place themselves within these steps. Keep in mind that very few people progress through these steps in an orderly fashion. Developing your trading skills is an iterative process. For example, you may reach Step 13., find that although you were making money, your basic premise for trading was flawed (you might have been benefiting from the bull market, rather than your own trading prowess and then have been rudely awakened when the market entered a bear phase) and you may drop back to Step 4. and start 'climbing' the steps again. Having the proper mindset, attitude and psychological makeup becomes increasingly important as you progress through the steps. The focus of the earlier steps is on external issues, i.e. developing proficiency in the mechanics of trading while the focus of the latter steps (particularly from Step 30, on) is on internal issues, i.e. improving ourselves mentally and psychologically, maturing as traders.

Lets put it this if you're going to study the way of Gann you're better be able to put the Universe right in your head. Some are unable and quit farewell quickly because they do not have the soul for it. Infact if I ask you some of the deepest things in regards about the Universe will you be able to answer them. Can you look ahead of time and prior to the past and line it up to the present while gaining instant knowledge about the world we live in and the soul of the self. To study the way of Gann is the way of the " One"....do you know where the wind blows and whether the dew it comes from ? Do you what the Flower of Life means ? Do not use any kind of technical analysis unless you're saying they predict the future. Do not use any of any engineer or market analyst. Just do things in the seasons that come for specific things that exits in accordance to its nature. I am fighting real causes that lie deep hidden in this mind that you don't even know. To be artist knowing the beauty and the order as well the chaos.....do you know what soilder of God is in control of the order and chaos in this world ? You know who govern and hold the scales of the nations that decide if peace or war ensue ? To understand a single number and its vibration is the beginning to understanding anything on a Square of Nine Gann. Number is Vibration and it is our primodal existance in bondage to space and time in the flower of life.

Let's take a look at another breakout. This one occurred last week in the euro. What is striking here is how distinctive the post-breakout hammer was leading to a marked downswing. These are the "picture perfect," ultra low risk type trades I love, for sure.

I promise to provide enough fodder to get you profitable if you aren't brain-dead, but I refuse to spoon feed you. Fair enough?

This is the July Beans showing a perfect consolidation breakout followed by a hammer. Notice the "rattail" that helps identify the hammer. See if you can identify the other two hammers in this down move (both excellent places to pyramid your position). This is only one of several breakout systems I developed and trade but I'm able to get in on several sustained breakouts each week with this method in just the currency futures alone. Hope this helps. Luv, Phantom

I like that idea of pulling out the profits. I think where some traders go wrong is thinking in terms of a salary and expecting a fixed dollar amount every xx week/weeks like when they are on payroll. In all my years of trading my returns are never smooth -- some weeks/months the market is just so generous, other times it's incredibly stingy. I'd drive myself crazy if I had a "salary" expectation that was consistent/smooth. Even when I look at my long-term non-traded assets like funds and stocks if I look at the monthly returns it is literally all over the map. So, skimming out the profits makes sense but just don't expect that to ever be a consistent number. Assuming it's positive to begin with! MMS

Here is an excellent Indicator for MACD fans. At first I was under the impression that it is a proprietary indicator, but it is listed in this MT4 Indicators site, which is publicly available: http://www.search4metatrader.com/index.php You will have to register, but they are not asking for anything except your email address. This indicator, which I have attached is available under "M" of course, and you will locate it on page 4 of the "M" directory. By the way - I have found that the best setting for it are: 4 - 21 - 1 - 5 The default settings are 10 - 20 - 1 - 7, but these can be up to 5 candles/bars late in getting you into a move. A bonus of using the MT4 site, is that the top downloads for the month/week/ever are listed on the front page, and I am sure you will find something there - even hard-to-find indies. There are truly thousands of MT4 Indicators listed on this site, which does look like an official MT4 site. Bookmark it for the future. Cheers Macd with EMA BDv8_12_31.mq4

Hi winchie, You don't mention what type of trader you are, or plan to become. There are many good books out there. For technical analysis, I keep a copy of "Technical Analysis of Stock Trends" by Edwards and Magee on my desk. It's not a read thru kind of book, but a great reference book. Although the word "Stock" is in the tittle, TA is TA, and can be applied to anything you can put on a chart. From there you can look for something more subject specific, VSA, Candlesticks, etc. For Motivation and Psychology, I like, "Market Wizards", "Trading in The Zone", and Millionaire Traders". Surely others will chime in with their thoughts.

Step 39 is when Shrek and Feona have a family and live happily ever after

first i must state that i consider optimization as the mother of all f**kups. Having said that, the best tools are both Ninjatrader and matlab Matlab, when one has the ability to program at a certain level, goes beyond anything. For quick and dirty (and for people not familiar with programming) NinjaTrader is excellent. I have the opportunity to use NT7 and indeed solves a lot of problems regarding resources use. Two additional interesting programs for system design are quant developer and rightedge But I repeat the best actually is matlab

correct. so if we have established a balance area, a push outside that balance is initiative and we get range extension. the responsive tail means that the initiative effort was shut down. there wasn't enough power behind the move to sustain it, a more powerful responsive movement came in, and created the tail. back into the balance we go. we had a nice example of this today in the ES. at point #1, higher prices would be expected to shut down selling, but it didn't so someone was trying to initiate an upward move. after we got range extension up, sellers responded at point #2 and the upward movement failed. the area that sparked responsive selling lined up with yesterday's VAH (point #3). though i realize there is more complexity to the market and its behaviors, i use a very basic lens for this scenario: did the expected happen? if we reach the upper portion of a visibly recognizable balance area, did higher prices shut off the buying? if not, that is unexpected and therefore not responsive. it is initiative. that's only for the direction. keep in mind how many different agendas are at play in the market at any given time. if, like we described above, the initiative move is weak and overtaken by responsive sellers then that initiative attempt failed. not only has this upward move failed sending us back down into balance, this can easily generate downward momentum and spark an initiative downward move at the bottom of our balance area. i think understanding the market through Market Profile simply takes a lot of time and practice. remember that MP is not a strategy, nor is it a trading system. of course, that's not to say people can't create trading systems based off of MP. i sincerely hope that helps. thanks and take care - omni

Hello Since you don't mention a specific platform (Tradestation for instance) I assume what you really want is a mathematical formula for intraday vol? I am not familiar with Haggerty's method but can offer my own as follows; 1. Go to IVolatility.com and get the most recent IV (Implied Vol) for the instrument you trade. If for example it is the ES contract, then it is approximately 37%....convert to .37 2. To compute a one (1) standard deviation trading range (annualized) 1 x .37 x previous day's closing price (900 for the ES contract) = 333 pts above and below that close To obtain the intraday figure simply multiply by the square root of the number of days per year (365) shown below square root of 1 day/365 = .0523421 333 pts x .0523421 = 17.43 pts Indicates that the intraday 1 sd range for the ES contract should be 900 plus or minus 17.43 pts. or 882.50 - 917.50 Rinse & repeat to obtain 1.28, 1.5 and 2.0 standard deviations and you have "approximate" intraday ranges for the ES today (Jan 02, 2009) Here they are out to 1.5 +1.5 sd = 926.25 +1.28 sd = 922.50 +1 sd = 917.50 900 (previous day's close) -1.5 sd = 882.42 -1.28 sd = 877.60 -1.5 sd = 873.75 Remember that its an approximation and that it "suggests" that the price series is normally distributed (it isn't)..so there are quite a few limitations to it. I wouldn't use it but there it is.... Hope it helps Steve

To all traders who are reading this thread and who are having difficulties: If you do not have evidence of a consistently profitable trading strategy, then your problem is not "psychology". It is not "discipline". It is not ego or greed or fear. Your problem is that you don't have a consistently profitable trading strategy. Until you do, you can be mental health poster child with the strictest discipline on the planet and you won't be profitable. You have to have a consistently profitable trading strategy. Cranking up your software and logging in to your data feed, then waiting for the open to "see if something is going to happen" is not a trading strategy (or at least not one which is likely to be consistently profitable). Going short because "buying seems exhausted", then going long because "selling seems exhausted" or because the "big boys" seem to be "stepping up to the plate" is not a trading strategy. If you're trading and you don't know exactly what it is that you're looking for, then stop trading until you do. If you know exactly what it is that you're looking for but you don't what exactly what it is that you're going to do if and when you see it, then stop trading until you do. If you elect to view trading as a game, then don't be surprised at how much money you can lose and at how fast you can lose it. If instead you view trading as a business, then don't be surprised at the amount of time and effort required to make it a profitable one.

Interesting discussion this. I have seen and spent time with a very diverse group of traders. From very successful independent & prop traders, traders at firms, traders at banks, average traders, losing traders, losing traders who think they are good traders, etc. The three things that really stand out separating the traders comes down to: 1) Discipline 2) Conviction 3) Guts. In my experience, having an edge to pull an income from the markets is actually not that hard at all. I would go so far as to say it is easy. Some of the most consistent traders I know have particular setups, and they just don't really question it. They don't make a killing, they just grind it out, working their small edge. Mentality is too general a word. The more specific problem: The majority of people have no discipline. It takes a huge amount of discipline to know what your specific edge is, sit infront of a screen and only take those setups. To only trade your edge, entires & exits. I do NOT think the problem is exactly about having a profitable strategy. It's about having a profitable strategy, and trading that and only that. The average person simply can't sit infront of a screen all day, every day, to only take one very specific setup. Even if it were to make them more than their current income. If you can't follow an exercise plan, can't follow a diet, can't follow a study plan, etc - It is unlikely you will succeed at trading until you can address those issues. This is one of the key reasons why there is a correlation between successful athletes following on to become successful traders - it is the discipline aspect. Subsequently, it is also a key factor in why there is very little correlation between being successful in a white-collar job, to becoming a successful trader. Most 'real jobs' (as I call them :-) ) do not require and test your discipline on a daily basis.