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  1. 7 points
    bootstrap

    I Look Back Now and Wonder

    I wasn't sure where to put this, so the powers that be can move it if they see fit. I put it here for anyone who is just starting out and wondering what it really takes to become part of that elite club of profitable traders. I lurk on several trading forums. I join a few and make a few posts. One thing that I rarely see is the painful path one took to becoming successful. So for all you beginners here is what becoming successful took. For my fellow brethren that are already in the club have a good laugh. The markets had always lured me as a kid. I would read the paper and make predictions. Sometimes they were right; sometimes not. Then one day I got that famous commodity-trading flyer, sent my money off and took the plunge. My first stab at trading was commodities and I started with $5k in 1991. I was using the strategy as outlined by the guru. The account was gone within a few months. Well that didn’t work. I thought, people do this everyday and make money why not me. So off to the library. I read every book the Memphis library had on trading and investing. I paper traded the strategies I found while I built my bankroll back up. I learned exits, set-ups, position, expectancy, market psychology, and portfolio management. I soon realized that I was reading the same thing over and over no matter which book I checked out. Time to build my strategy. I am ready to do this. I bought a new computer, Metastock Pro 6.0, and opened an account with $30k. Its 1995, and this is my shot. By 1997 I was toast again. The family life went to hell in a hand basket, and I thought I could trade through the difficult times. The result was an account with a balance of $2500. Back to the drawing board. Took care of the personal stuff. Lived like a monk raising capital. Worked nights and watched the market during the day. Took a second job on the weekends to raise more money. Then one day out of the blue, the little red and green candles started to make sense. I saw patterns develop over and over in the same spots. I placed a trade and made a profit. But I had done this before. I removed the MACD from my charts. Placed another trade and made a profit. Maybe I am on to something. Removed the channel indicator that I stumbled across. I could still see the action and new what the MACD was doing and where the action was in the channel without them even being on the chart. I even stopped drawing trend lines. It was just me and the screen. I planned every trade. I knew exactly when, where, and why I entered and exited. I was patient. I became a predator. Lurking and waiting. I took every shot the market gave me. If it started to go wrong, I got out quick and waited. If the market did not give me an opening, oh well. There is always tomorrow. By the fall of 1999, I was consistently profitable and have been ever since. For those that are waiting for the sales pitch, there isn’t one. For those that are waiting for me to expose some great secret, well there isn’t one of those either. What I will give you are a few simple pointers that I learned the hard way. And the sad part is, most will stilll learn these the hardway. 1)Take everything you read with a grain of salt. That includes this post. 2)Never pay for a system. It is just not that easy. 3)If something comes up in your life that is distracting, stop trading. 4)Plan every aspect of your trade down to the smallest detail, and plan for every possible outcome. 5)Develop your own strategy. Don’t let someone tell you that you can’t trade a simple moving average if you truly believe you can. 6)Test the strategy in the market that you will be trading. If you like the results, trade it in another totally unrelated market and see if it still holds up. 7)Paper trading is ok, but there is nothing that truly tests the strategy like hard earned cash. 8)You will have to make sacrifices in order to make it. I still do. In the middle of my learning period I was working 18 hours a day during the week and 12 on the weekend. 9)You are responsible for everything when it comes to trading. That includes stop running, bad fills, limit moves, your PC crashing. I mean everything. See #4 10)And last but probably most important, don’t be afraid of failure. Just do like Edison and go, “Well that didn’t work”. Good trading to you all.
  2. 3 points
    LindsayBev

    Best Candlestick Book / PDF??

    Donald, here is the pdf version of the book, if you are interested. While a bit "salesman-like" in its approach (all of what he claims cannot possibly be true or it would be the Holy Grail), it was packed full with pictures, commentary and helpful information. Enjoy. Profitable_Candlestick_Trading-HERE.pdf
  3. 3 points
    rangerdoc

    Wyckoff Resources

    I'm not one to make a habit of bumping old threads, but based on earlier discussion, this is clearly the best place to post a link to the original Wyckoff course: The Richard D Wyckoff Method of Trading and Investing in Stocks: A Course of Instruction in Stock Market Science and Technique. Wyckoff - Course.pdf
  4. 2 points
    thalestrader

    Reading Charts in Real Time

    Hard to believe its been almost 11 years since we had a great year in this thread. I think of you guys still. I wish we could have a reunion week here for any of you who are still trading ... or even if you're not. Maybe the first or second week of June 2020. If interested, drop a note here and perhaps an email address if you don't plan on checking back. No more forex for me - just stocks, ES, and NQ. As always, Best Wishes, Thales
  5. 2 points
    bootstrap

    Why Screen Time Is Important

    Here is something that should get pretty lively.. Since everyone keeps telling you that screen time is important, there has to be something to it. But nobody is telling you what you should be looking for. What is it going to teach you? There has to be something that those who do this for a living see that you don’t. Well there is. And just like the magician that exposed the secrets to magic tricks on national TV, I am going to tell you what we see. But before I do remember one thing. Take everything you read in a forum or book, or hear from a guru or in a seminar with a grain of salt. Question everything. Only when you prove it to yourself, does it become the rule. What I am about to share can be found on thousands of sites and in countless books. If you have done any research at all, you have come across Dr. Elder’s triple screen, or some permutation of it. You understand the principles behind using multiple frames of reference. What has most likely not been explained to you is why it works or how to apply it correctly. In most cases you are only given a single example. Single example you say? Yes, when most first stumble across using multiple time frames, they follow the rules of: Use the upper time frame to identify the trend, the middle time frame for the set-up, and the lowest time frame to enter. If by chance you are not familiar with the triple screen just goggle “triple screen +elder”. Trading instruments exhibt three different types of market action in any given frame of reference. You use multiple frames of reference (i.e. Time or ticks) to identify the current market environment. These markets are: Trending, Trading, and Volatile. Why screen time is so important is that all instruments do not exhibit the characteristics of Trending in the upper time frame, Trading in the middle, and Volatile in the lower at all times. They can be in any one of the following combinations at any given time: Trending/Trading/Volatile Trending/Volatile/Trading Trading/Volatile/Trending Trading/Trending/Volatile Volatile/Trending/Trading Volatile/Trading/Trending Or any one of 84 possible market combinations if you consider Volatile/Volatile/Volatile. Like the major pairs in Forex, the combinations I listed are what I consider the major market combinations. The elusive secret that you are looking for, and what screen time teaches you, is to identify which market combination you are in and then how to trade what you see. Or better yet, when to stay on the sidelines. Each combination requires a different strategy, and some may not be tradeable at all. If you are trading across a broad range of instruments, you only need to master one. The fewer instruments you trade, the more market combinations you may have to learn. But you have to learn them one at a time and only add the next one once the first is mastered. But you ask what about Trending/Trending/Trading? Or how about Volatile/Volatile/Volatile? Or if I use Weekly/Daily/Hourly I get Trending/Trading/Volatile but if I use Daily/Hourly/Min I get Trading/Volatile/Trending. One step at a time grasshopper. One step at a time. As I mentioned there are 84 possible combinations. Multiply this across thousands of instruments and countless frames of reference, and I hope you get the picture. You do not have to learn them all. You only have to learn the few that fit you, your chosen instrument and frames of reference. Find the market combinations that are most prevalent and learn to trade only those. This is why it takes screen time to learn to do this, and why each trader is different. It is also why three traders in the same instrument will be doing something different. Trader A will scalp, trader B will be a buyer, and trader C will be seller, and they all make money. They are using different frames of reference and therefore see a different market
  6. 2 points
    To become a full time traders, it will take years. Full time trader is smiliar to becoming a lawyer, Doctors, etc. The problem is many people believe day trading es is "get rich quick." If it takes 5 yrs to become a doctor, it will take 5 yrs to become a full time trader. I have no clue why people believe they can become a full time trader less than 1 yr. If that is true, why does it take a long time to become a doctor, lawyer, etc. According to the Gov report, 97% of the people lose trading in the futures market. One of the reason they lose is, they failed to understand trading futures involves substantial risk and only risk capital should be used. All brokerages and few trading school websites have those risk disclaimer. But for some reason, most people FAILED or ignore the risk disclaimer. For those who are a successful full time traders took them yrs to get there. Plus, they fully understood that trading es is NOT A GET RICH QUICK and trading futures involves SUBSTANTIAL RISK!!!!!! hope this help
  7. 2 points
    DbPhoenix

    Trading The Wyckoff Way

    Put simply, support is the price at which those who have enough money to make a difference are willing to show their support by retarding, halting, and reversing the decline by buying. Resistance is the price at which those who have enough money to make a difference attempt to retard, halt, and reverse a rise by selling. Whether one calls this money professional or big or smart or institutional or crooked or manipulative or (fill in the blank) is irrelevant. If repeated attempts to sell below this support level are met by buying which is sufficient to turn price back, these little reversals will eventually form a line, or zone. Ditto with resistance. A swing high or low represents a point at which traders are no longer able to find trades. Whether that point represents important support or resistance will be seen the next time traders push price in that direction. But everyone knows this point, even if they aren't following a chart. It exists independently of the trader and his lines and charts and indicators and displays. It is the point beyond which price could not go. Hence its importance, both to those who want to see price move higher and those who don't. The first two posts to this thread address these matters, as do others here and there. However, finding S&R in real charts in real time takes more than just a couple of posts. But one must understand the nature of support -- and resistance -- itself before he begins to look for it. Otherwise, he will find what he thinks are S&R in some very peculiar places. Before coming to any conclusions about what “works” or “doesn’t work”, and thus does or does not provide an edge, one ought to keep in mind that a given event -- such as price seemingly finding support or resistance at a trendline (or moving average, candlestick, Pivot Point, Fib level or whatever) -- may be only incidental to what is truly providing that support or resistance. A fundamental misunderstanding of how "indicators" are calculated and what they're supposed to do can lead to all sorts of off-task behavior. We think we see the indicators indicating something, or not, and believe we have made an important discovery. We then devote our efforts to improving the hit rate and the probability of whatever it is we think the indicator is indicating when our efforts ought to be focused on determining whether or not the indicator is actually indicating what we think it's indicating. In most if not all cases, it isn't. Consider the virgin being tossed into the volcano: sometimes it results in a great crop, sometimes it doesn't. Maybe tossing her in earlier or later will change the probability of a healthy crop. Maybe two virgins are better than one. Maybe six. Maybe tall virgins are more effective than short ones. And surely age is important. But does the robustness of the crop really have anything to do with tossing the virgin into the volcano in the first place? The money under the pillow is not evidence of the existence of the tooth fairy, and spring will arrive regardless of whether the virgin is tossed into the volcano or not. (Db)
  8. 1 point
    Hi Folks, I thought it would be interesting if we had a thread where we could all post charts of potential price moves in real time. These do not have to be actual trades you are taking. The purpose would be for us to learn from one another how to recognize these opportunities in real time. Therefore, when you post a chart, be sure to clearly state the direction in which you anticipate price to move, and the reason you are interpreting price action in that manner. This is not a thread for secrets, show-offs, or salespeople selling systems. I'll start off with the GBPUSD here soon after the markets have reopened for trading this Sunday evening. Looks like a potential short trade if there is a break of 1.6421 (For the record, I am not trading this). The first red arrow would have been a nice short entry as the Cable put in a 1-2-3 top per Trader Vic (easy to see after the fact). The second red arrow swas a second chance short entry on the retest of the break of the "2" point on that 1-2-3 top (also easy to see in hindsight). The third red arrow is the current market as price is trying to find support. If that support does not hold, a test of 1.6389 - 1.6406 would be next. I have some family time now, so I'll check in later and update the chart. Best Wishes, Thales
  9. 1 point
    fxeconomist

    Are you guys using Forex Signal?

    I traded signals but unfortunately they didn't work for me. I think it is very difficult to find professional and winning signal provider because truly winning traders can attract much more serious investors than random low-capitalised investors from internet.
  10. 1 point
    Investing in Forex is not a game, it is something serious and study, experience, patience and a lot of discipline. It can be a very profitable business if you are careful and never get greedy.
  11. 1 point
    alexa-moore

    Forex signals

    The forex market is like boxing, if you train well and are good you can earn a lot of money and have free time. But if you go there without training you will be very bad, places to invest there are many, and while they are regulated you will not have fraud problems, however even if you have the best broker in the world if you do not know how to analyze markets, you will hardly avoid losing your money.
  12. 1 point
    I really dont understand why people are still searching for reliable signal provider, as we all know they all are scam. None can give you 100% true result for few bucks.
  13. 1 point
    landorra

    Forex signals

    This is the most important one of them all.
  14. 1 point
    landorra

    Best Forex Broker?

    The most important aspect by far is the regulation backing that broker. I prefer a more expensive but decently regulated broker than a cheaper one in Belize/Cyprus/other places like that.
  15. 1 point
    Hello traders, I am interested in order flow trading and I will post some trades and predictions, some articles and ideology of a bit different understanding how price moves and why. May be this forum will be the right place. So, for the start I have couple of charts of recent trade on oil. Also I did some comparison of two different software. Would be great to meet some traders who use order flow too. Lets see. I have a lots ideas and strategies to share. I don't use any traditional indicators, because just numbers are important for me.
  16. 1 point
    Yeah! That's my pleasure
  17. 1 point
    ethanscott

    Market Volatility.

    I agree. Share prices change because of supple and demand. If more people want to buy a stock (demand) than sell it (supply), then the price moves up. Conversely, if more people wanted to sell a stock than buy it, there would be greater supply than demand, and the price would fall.
  18. 1 point
    Gamera

    Testing Times.

    Actions for the 6th. Another day with high volume and big movements.
  19. 1 point
    Gamera

    Testing Times.

    Actions for the 31st. Volume seemed to be all over the place along with the PA.
  20. 1 point
    Hello forum members I am Rikita Bhave, want to share my trading experience
  21. 1 point
    Today Indian Stock Market moved down on ending session. Tomorrow is the day of big quarterly results. Three companies of Nifty index, Bajaj Finance, Bajaj Finserve and Kotak Mahindra will announce their quarterly results. Mid-cap companies like Aditya Birla Money, ABB India Limited, D.B.Corp Limited, GNA Axles Limited, RBL Bank Limited and Sterlite Technologies Limited will also announce their results.
  22. 1 point
    WildPete

    Reading Charts in Real Time

    Another potential Stab at the GBPUSD Long (if triggered). God Bless.. WP
  23. 1 point
    What I've learned so far that you really should have a record of what you've done on the market. Not necessary every position and detail, but the outcome, mindset and the triggers of your actions. This way you can examine your motivation behind following a plan or a gut feeling etc. This way you won't only have numbers, but the documentation of what was going on in your mind while you made a given trade.
  24. 1 point
    Endicotto

    TOS into TradeStation Indicator ?

    I guess Arun ran. lol
  25. 1 point
    The answer to this question is relative. I mean, it depends upon you. It depends how quickly you understand the market and the company in which you invest. If you study the life of successful traders, it is analyzed that it took them years.
  26. 1 point
    Jason Solomon

    Help me choose a forex market

    Thanks Donals, I'm grateful for any aspects on what to trade.
  27. 1 point
    Gamera

    Testing Times.

    Actions for the 31st.
  28. 1 point
    Prakash

    Best Candlestick Book / PDF??

    Profitable Candlestick Trading (2002) by Stephen W. Bigalow
  29. 1 point
    zdo

    ,,,just Sayin...

    I love trading... just sayin’... After all these years I’m out of practice, but I’m more adept at taking money on the short side ... and I enjoy it more... just sayin’ ... ... https://www.oftwominds.com/photos2018/ikigai-chart2.jpg ... just sayin’
  30. 1 point
  31. 1 point
    johnnydaymon

    TTM Wave a B C Indicator Code

    Here you go Derek !, the function and A,B,C Function - mbC.txt TTM Wave A.txt TTM Wave B.txt TTM Wave C.txt
  32. 1 point
    gavind

    Forex Trading on Smartphone / Iphone

    For me, just for monitoring purposes. That's it.
  33. 1 point
    MidKnight

    Become a Better Trader

    Develop a plan. As one goes on their trading development journey and they are exploring a variety of markets, timeframes, and methodolgies - you'll need to develop a plan. The plan doesn't have to be some objective extremely specific set of rules. It can be a loose set of guidelines that makes sense to you that gets refined over time with your experience. The goal is to start acting consistently so you can get consistent results. There will probably be times that you violate the plan for whatever reason and I think that is normal, especially for more discretionary plans. But the key is to consciously violate it rather than getting lost in the throws of the market or in ones emotions. If you are consciously violating the plan you will note it in your daily review and over time you will collect enough data that may or may not indicate that the violation improves your plan. Develop a plan today.
  34. 1 point
    Mysticforex

    38 Steps to Becoming a Trader

    I didn't see this posted here anywhere so I thought I would. The " I Look Back Now " thread inspired me. I read this several years ago in a commodities magazine, I have also seen it around on the web: 38 steps to becoming a trader They are as follows: 1. We accumulate information - buying books, going to seminars and researching. 2. We begin to trade with our 'new' knowledge. 3. We consistently 'donate' and then realise we may need more knowledge or information. 4. We accumulate more information. 5. We switch the commodities we are currently following. 6. We go back into the market and trade with our 'updated' knowledge. 7. We get 'beat up' again and begin to lose some of our confidence. Fear starts setting in. 8. We start to listen to 'outside news' and to other traders. 9. We go back into the market and continue to 'donate'. 10. We switch commodities again. 11. We search for more information. 12. We go back into the market and start to see a little progress. 13. We get 'over-confident' and the market humbles us. 14. We start to understand that trading successfully is going to take more time and more knowledge than we anticipated. MOST PEOPLE WILL GIVE UP AT THIS POINT, AS THEY REALISE WORK IS INVOLVED. 15. We get serious and start concentrating on learning a 'real' methodology. 16. We trade our methodology with some success, but realise that something is missing. 17. We begin to understand the need for having rules to apply our methodology. 18. We take a sabbatical from trading to develop and research our trading rules. 19. We start trading again, this time with rules and find some success, but over all we still hesitate when we execute. 20. We add, subtract and modify rules as we see a need to be more proficient with our rules. 21. We feel we are very close to crossing that threshold of successful trading. 22. We start to take responsibility for our trading results as we understand that our success is in us, not the methodology. 23. We continue to trade and become more proficient with our methodology and our rules. 24. As we trade we still have a tendency to violate our rules and our results are still erratic. 25. We know we are close. 26. We go back and research our rules. 27. We build the confidence in our rules and go back into the market and trade. 28. Our trading results are getting better, but we are still hesitating in executing our rules. 29. We now see the importance of following our rules as we see the results of our trades when we don't follow the rules. 30. We begin to see that our lack of success is within us (a lack of discipline in following the rules because of some kind of fear) and we begin to work on knowing ourselves better. 31. We continue to trade and the market teaches us more and more about ourselves. 32. We master our methodology and our trading rules. 33. We begin to consistently make money. 34. We get a little over-confident and the market humbles us. 35. We continue to learn our lessons. 36. We stop thinking and allow our rules to trade for us (trading becomes boring, but successful) and our trading account continues to grow as we increase our contract size. 37. We are making more money than we ever dreamed possible. 38. We go on with our lives and accomplish many of the goals we had always dreamed of. Most traders will identify with this list and should be able to place themselves within these steps. Keep in mind that very few people progress through these steps in an orderly fashion. Developing your trading skills is an iterative process. For example, you may reach Step 13., find that although you were making money, your basic premise for trading was flawed (you might have been benefiting from the bull market, rather than your own trading prowess and then have been rudely awakened when the market entered a bear phase) and you may drop back to Step 4. and start 'climbing' the steps again. Having the proper mindset, attitude and psychological makeup becomes increasingly important as you progress through the steps. The focus of the earlier steps is on external issues, i.e. developing proficiency in the mechanics of trading while the focus of the latter steps (particularly from Step 30, on) is on internal issues, i.e. improving ourselves mentally and psychologically, maturing as traders.
  35. 1 point
    Lets put it this if you're going to study the way of Gann you're better be able to put the Universe right in your head. Some are unable and quit farewell quickly because they do not have the soul for it. Infact if I ask you some of the deepest things in regards about the Universe will you be able to answer them. Can you look ahead of time and prior to the past and line it up to the present while gaining instant knowledge about the world we live in and the soul of the self. To study the way of Gann is the way of the " One"....do you know where the wind blows and whether the dew it comes from ? Do you what the Flower of Life means ? Do not use any kind of technical analysis unless you're saying they predict the future. Do not use any of any engineer or market analyst. Just do things in the seasons that come for specific things that exits in accordance to its nature. I am fighting real causes that lie deep hidden in this mind that you don't even know. To be artist knowing the beauty and the order as well the chaos.....do you know what soilder of God is in control of the order and chaos in this world ? You know who govern and hold the scales of the nations that decide if peace or war ensue ? To understand a single number and its vibration is the beginning to understanding anything on a Square of Nine Gann. Number is Vibration and it is our primodal existance in bondage to space and time in the flower of life.
  36. 1 point
    abc163

    Wyckoff Resources

    Here it is: The Richard D. Wykcoff Method of Trading in Stocks: Division 2: A Course of Instruction in Tape Reading and Active Trading Tape Reading and Active Trading.pdf
  37. 1 point
    phantom

    What Really Works for Technical Traders

    Let's take a look at another breakout. This one occurred last week in the euro. What is striking here is how distinctive the post-breakout hammer was leading to a marked downswing. These are the "picture perfect," ultra low risk type trades I love, for sure.
  38. 1 point
    phantom

    What Really Works for Technical Traders

    I promise to provide enough fodder to get you profitable if you aren't brain-dead, but I refuse to spoon feed you. Fair enough?
  39. 1 point
    phantom

    What Really Works for Technical Traders

    This is the July Beans showing a perfect consolidation breakout followed by a hammer. Notice the "rattail" that helps identify the hammer. See if you can identify the other two hammers in this down move (both excellent places to pyramid your position). This is only one of several breakout systems I developed and trade but I'm able to get in on several sustained breakouts each week with this method in just the currency futures alone. Hope this helps. Luv, Phantom
  40. 1 point
    jaaks

    Why Do More Than 90% of Traders Lose?

    Traders lose primarily because the primitive part of the brain is wired to avoid loss and the primitive brain makes all the decisions. Once we incur a loss trading, we try to recoup the loss. This usually means riding the loss down to greater losses until the pain gets too great. Then we bail at a huge loss, with a lot of emotional pain. This loss is burned in our memory and subconsciously we we start trying to get the money we lost back. Let's be clear. This is occurring subconsciously. You are not aware it is happening. That is why you repeat the same behaviors, and lose over and over again even thought your higher brain know it is wrong. By the way, the higher brain will think of sort of excuses to justify the primitive brains actions. None of which are true. How do you counter this strong, unconscious force? First you need a plan. The first part of the the plan is cash management. You need goals based on the type of trading you are doing. You need strict loss stops above all, how much money you are willing to lose for the type of trading your are doing and if you hit it, you are DONE! The same go for profits. Once you reach you profit goal, never, never lose it. You can keep riding the the profit train in the market let's you but if it reverses and returns to your min profit level, you are OUT! Once you have experience in the market, you can alter the latter part by taking partial profits and increasing your position size for really obscene profits but never, never violate your daily loss rule. Never. Keep a log and study it. You will find the best ratio of win to lost based on your trading style. Why is the stop amount so important other than the obvious? Because starting out, you are likely going have more losing trades than winners. But you can still make money: Say you set a stop at $100 and it cost $2.00per buy and sell and the slippage is $.01/share and you profit goal is 4 times your loss amt. This means you could lose 3 times for every win. A 75% loss rate in trades. After 3 losses, you will have lost $312 + the slippage. That amount is based on the number of shares. Let's say it is 300 shares. so the slippage is $3. So your total loss is $315. The next trade in profitable, so you gain $396. You have profit of $81. If you do this every day, your profit is $405/wk. Couldn't live on this amount in America, but by increasing the amount, you can get to the point you could. But the best way is getting a win / loss ratio greater than one. Then you really make money. The only way to do this is accumulating trading time. If you could get to 3 wins for every loss, then your gain per day is 873 or $4365/wk. You could live on that! Note: this would be a very good winning ratio and depends on the stocks you trade and the type of trader you are. The fist part of your plan is cash management. The next is a plan of when to buy, when to sell, when to take profit, when to increase your position size. Is there one better than another? Yes, depending on the type of trader you are and the market. Also different plans are needed in different market phases. But every plan fails if you don't relentlessly stick to it. Never vary, never vary, never vary. You can alter your plan when you are not trading, but while you are trading, sick to it. Is there a fool proof trading method? No. If there was, that method would soon get all the profit in the market and everyone would use it, resulting in it's failure as the rules would now have changed. Anyway, if you had a system, would you let anyone know about it? Not likely! At best, you could come up with something that work for the market conditions at that moment but would fail when the conditions change. "The market is always the same, the market is aways changing." There are plenty of adaptive black box systems that supposedly are using fuzzy logic and neural programming. From what I know, their ratio is 35% winners, 65% losers. And they make money hand over fist because they have strict rules and they never vary from them.
  41. 1 point
    MadMarketScientist

    Trading for a Living

    I like that idea of pulling out the profits. I think where some traders go wrong is thinking in terms of a salary and expecting a fixed dollar amount every xx week/weeks like when they are on payroll. In all my years of trading my returns are never smooth -- some weeks/months the market is just so generous, other times it's incredibly stingy. I'd drive myself crazy if I had a "salary" expectation that was consistent/smooth. Even when I look at my long-term non-traded assets like funds and stocks if I look at the monthly returns it is literally all over the map. So, skimming out the profits makes sense but just don't expect that to ever be a consistent number. Assuming it's positive to begin with! MMS
  42. 1 point
    When the es emini SP gaps overnight, I've noticed something interesting about the UVOL/DVOL ratio. There is often huge differences between the Up Volume and Down Volume at the market open after an overnight gap in price. Take a look at the es emini SP on Friday 3-18-11 for example. The NYSE 500 opened with Up Volume that was 65 times more than Down Volume! A 65 to 1 ratio of up volume to down volume. On a day when the es doesn't gap overnight, the ratio of one volume to the other is normally around 1 to 3 either way. So a ratio of 65 to 1 compared to a ratio of 2 to 1 is a huge difference. It only took 3 minutes for that ratio to drop to 30 to 1 at 9:33 am. And it was 11 to 1 by 9:48 am. Those are still very big differences of Up Volume to Down Volume. The interesting thing is, that the es emini dropped in price all day. So the huge Up Volume compared to Down Volume did not make the es go up. The ratio of Up Volume to Down volume was dropping all day, and the es emini went down all day. The es didn't bottom until that ratio got back to a fairly normal range of about 2 to 1, at 3:13 pm.
  43. 1 point
    MightyMouse

    38 Steps to Becoming a Trader

    Step 39 is when Shrek and Feona have a family and live happily ever after
  44. 1 point
    wind_

    Best Forex Broker?

    Check out Dukascopy (Forex trading, ECN Broker, Managed accounts, Swiss FX trading platform). They are ECN forex broker located in Swiss. Their spread is very tight, and recently they lowered their min. lot size to 1,000 (micro lot).
  45. 1 point
    first i must state that i consider optimization as the mother of all f**kups. Having said that, the best tools are both Ninjatrader and matlab Matlab, when one has the ability to program at a certain level, goes beyond anything. For quick and dirty (and for people not familiar with programming) NinjaTrader is excellent. I have the opportunity to use NT7 and indeed solves a lot of problems regarding resources use. Two additional interesting programs for system design are quant developer and rightedge But I repeat the best actually is matlab
  46. 1 point
    Regarding MT4---I am not aware that volume information reported in MT4 is truly accurate or valid. I know for currencies that the volume in MT4 is only the volume reported by each individual broker, thus it is not really an accurate representation of what is really happening. There are many forum posts that talk about this issue of forex and volume... Since this indicator needs an accurate volume picture, I'm not sure that porting this to MT4 is the best idea unless you know that the volume in the MT4 feed is truly accurate... Best, David
  47. 1 point
    DbPhoenix

    Trading The Wyckoff Way

    In 2002, Paul Desmond won the 2002 Charles H. Dow Award for his work in identifying market bottoms and new bull markets. Since this work nicely supports Wyckoff's hypotheses regarding selling climaxes, technical rallies, and "secondary reactions", or tests, I've posted Desmond's study below in pdf form. I've also excerpted several points which are particularly pertinent to Wyckoff's aforementioned hypotheses and which will act as an introduction to the study. Please note that all bolding is mine. To spot an important market bottom, almost as it is happening, requires a close examination of the forces of supply and demand – the buying and selling that takes place during the decline to the market low - as well as during the subsequent reversal point. Important market bottoms are preceded by, and result from, important market declines. And, important market declines are, for the most part, a study in the extremes of human emotion. The intensity of their emotions can be statistically measured through their purchases and sales. [P]anic selling must be measured in terms of intensity, rather than just activity. It is essential to recognize that days of panic selling [in which Downside Volume equaled 90.0% or more of the total of Upside Volume plus Downside Volume, and Points Lost equaled 90.0% or more of the total of Points Gained plus Points Lost] cannot, by themselves, produce a market reversal, any more than simply lowering the sale price on a house will suddenly produce an enthusiastic buyer. As the Law of Supply and Demand would emphasize, it takes strong Demand, not just a reduction in Supply, to cause prices to rise substantially....These two events – panic selling (one or more 90% Downside Days) and panic buying (a 90% Upside Day...) – produce very powerful probabilities that a major trend reversal has begun…. Not all of these combination patterns – 90% Down and 90% Up – have occurred at major market bottoms. But, by observing the occurrence of 90% Days, investors have (1) been able to avoid buying too soon in a rapidly declining market, and (2) been able to identify many major turning points in their very early stages – usually far faster than with other forms of fundamental or technical trend analysis. Impressive, big-volume “snap-back” [technical] rallies lasting from two to seven days commonly follow quickly after 90% Downside Days, and can be very advantageous for nimble traders. But, as a general rule, longerterm investors should not be in a hurry to buy back into a market containing multiple 90% Downside Days, and should probably view snapback rallies as opportunities to move to a more defensive position. The following is of course a chart of the Nasdaq over the past few months up through yesterday and is intended as an example. The calculations are not guaranteed to be accurate. Anyone caring to verify them and point out any errors is welcome to do so. Readers are encouraged to read the study in its entirety. 2002DowAward.pdf
  48. 1 point
    DbPhoenix

    Edge VS Mentality

    To all traders who are reading this thread and who are having difficulties: If you do not have evidence of a consistently profitable trading strategy, then your problem is not "psychology". It is not "discipline". It is not ego or greed or fear. Your problem is that you don't have a consistently profitable trading strategy. Until you do, you can be mental health poster child with the strictest discipline on the planet and you won't be profitable. You have to have a consistently profitable trading strategy. Cranking up your software and logging in to your data feed, then waiting for the open to "see if something is going to happen" is not a trading strategy (or at least not one which is likely to be consistently profitable). Going short because "buying seems exhausted", then going long because "selling seems exhausted" or because the "big boys" seem to be "stepping up to the plate" is not a trading strategy. If you're trading and you don't know exactly what it is that you're looking for, then stop trading until you do. If you know exactly what it is that you're looking for but you don't what exactly what it is that you're going to do if and when you see it, then stop trading until you do. If you elect to view trading as a game, then don't be surprised at how much money you can lose and at how fast you can lose it. If instead you view trading as a business, then don't be surprised at the amount of time and effort required to make it a profitable one.
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