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Volume Spread Analysis
Dedicated for VSA method and trading.
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By HFblogNews · Posted
Date: 24th March 2025. Market Uncertainty Intensifies Amid Tariff Concerns Uncertainty has been the driving force in financial markets this year, with recent weeks seeing increased volatility due to ongoing tariff concerns. The global economy is grappling with the effects of the Trump Administration's levies, exacerbating fears over inflation and economic growth. Escalating trade tensions and geopolitical risks continue to weigh heavily on investor sentiment. Central banks, while adopting a wait-and-see stance, lean towards a dovish bias (excluding the Bank of Japan) amid rising threats of economic slowdowns. More market turbulence is expected in the short term as the world anticipates the outcome of Trump's April 2 reciprocal tariff decision. North America: Key Market Events and Economic Indicators A packed economic calendar awaits the US this week, featuring key data releases, Federal Reserve commentary, and Treasury supply ahead of quarter-end. Markets remain fixated on the much-anticipated April 2 "tax date" for the imposition of reciprocal tariffs. However, in an unexpected turn, President Trump suggested "flexibility" on tariffs, adding another layer of uncertainty to market expectations. Key economic releases include: February PCE Price Index (Friday) – The Fed’s preferred inflation gauge, which will be closely monitored for signs of tariff impacts. January's data showed a 0.3% increase in both headline and core prices, with annual rates at 2.5% and 2.6%, respectively. February’s report is expected to show a similar trend. March Consumer Confidence (Tuesday) – Expected to decline by 4.3 points to 94.0, marking the lowest level in over four years. Durable Goods Orders (Wednesday) – A crucial indicator of business investment and economic activity. Flash March PMIs and Housing Data – Additional data points that could influence market sentiment. Australia’s Inflation Data (Wednesday) Federal Reserve officials are set to speak throughout the week, though clarity on future policy moves remains unlikely. Key remarks from voters such as Kugler, Barr, and Musalem will be closely analyzed. Treasury Auctions and Market Yields The Treasury market is preparing for $183 billion in shorter-dated note auctions: $69 billion in 2-year notes (Tuesday) $70 billion in 5-year notes (Wednesday) $44 billion in 7-year notes (Thursday) The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield edged higher, while the dollar remained steady. Meanwhile, the Turkish lira dropped as market volatility persisted due to geopolitical uncertainties. Stock Market Update: US and European Futures Rise US and European stock futures climbed amid signs that the next round of President Trump’s tariffs may be more measured than initially feared. S&P 500 and Euro Stoxx 50 futures advanced, while Asian equities posted mixed performance. Key Developments Impacting Stocks Targeted U.S. Tariffs: Reports suggest that the next round of US tariffs will be more focused rather than a broad-based global effort. China and Australia have warned of potential economic shocks from US trade policies. Investor Sentiment: "The news of more targeted tariffs has been taken positively during early Asian trading hours, but markets remain on edge," said Khoon Goh, Head of Asia Research at ANZ Group Holdings Ltd. Geopolitical Concerns: Turkish assets face increased volatility following the arrest of a key opposition politician, prompting the country’s central bank to hold a "technical meeting" with commercial lenders in preparation for further market swings. Corporate and Sector-Specific News Ant Group’s AI Strategy: The Jack Ma-backed Ant Group Co. is leveraging Chinese-made semiconductors to develop AI models that cut costs by 20%, boosting optimism in Chinese tech stocks. DeepSeek’s AI Influence: The release of a lower-cost large language model by DeepSeek has fueled a 26% rally in Chinese technology shares this year, with analysts predicting further valuation expansion. Commodity Markets: Oil prices remained stable amid uncertainty over new US tariffs and an expected increase in OPEC+ supply. Gold hovered around $3,027 per ounce, near its all-time high reached last Thursday. Conclusion With market volatility heightened by trade uncertainties and global economic concerns, investors will closely track developments in tariff policy, economic data, and central bank commentary for signs of future trends. As April 2 approaches, markets brace for potential disruptions and opportunities in response to evolving US trade strategies. Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business. Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report. Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar. Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding of how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE! Click HERE to READ more Market news. Andria Pichidi HFMarkets Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in Leveraged Products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission. -
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By Stocks4life · Posted
MRCY Mercury Systems stock, watch for a top of range breakout above 47.36 at https://stockconsultant.com/?MRCY -
By HFblogNews · Posted
Date: 21st March 2025. Gold is Up 14% in 2025 But Has It Peaked? Gold prices fell on Thursday for the first time this week after reaching a new all-time high. The asset’s safe-haven status drives its bullish trend as the White House confirms new tariffs on April 2nd. On the other hand, the decline, which continues this morning potentially is due to fears the price is overbought or at its peak. Why Is Gold Increasing in Value? The main bullish price driver for Gold is the risk appetite of the market due to fears of a recession. Even the White House acknowledges a short-term downturn, though the administration calls it a ‘transitional period’. A potential recession has also been mentioned by economists including the previous Treasury Secretary, Lawrence Summers, who advises the chances of a recession in 2025 is around 50%. The possibility of a recession due to the new trade policy is not only driving the price of Gold but also bond yields and the stock market. The SNP500 has fallen almost 11% over the past 4-weeks. The risk appetite of the market can be seen through the poor performance of the stock market. Furthermore, the VIX index has fallen almost 11% while demand for bonds has risen. In addition to this, the Federal Reserve made it clear that there is no clear sign yet that the economy will not experience a recession but does expect lower economic growth. The Federal Reserve reduced its projections for the US GDP Growth Rates. The Chairman of the Federal Reserve told journalists that the central bank will continue its wait-and-see approach due to the uncertainties of the trade policy. The Federal Reserve will opt for a reactive approach rather than a proactive approach which may unnecessarily push inflation higher. Trade Tariffs on April 2nd Donald Trump imposed 20% tariffs on all Chinese imports, along with 25% duties on goods from Canada and Mexico. He also enforced 25% sanctions on imported steel and aluminium, prompting retaliatory measures. Meanwhile, unemployment rose to 4.1%, retail sales by only 0.2%, and business activity remained sluggish. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent warned of a potential US recession, and experts suggest that if the trend continues, the Federal Reserve may adopt a more ‘dovish’ stance, pressuring the US dollar. At 20:00 (GMT+2) today, investors await the regulator’s meeting results and a new dot chart forecasting interest rate cuts. Any signal of borrowing cost adjustments could drive XAU/USD prices upward. XAUUSD (Gold) - Technical Analysis The price of XAUUSD this morning during the Asian Session fell, forming a lower swing low for the first time since March 10th. The question which most traders are now asking is whether the price will now continue retracing downwards. Currently, the price in the medium term remains above the 75-EMA and above the 100-SMA which indicates the price still maintains its bullish bias. However, the price below the VWAP and order flow shows that so far sell orders outnumber buy orders. Therefore, due to the mixed signals, the volatility in the short term will be vital for technical analysts. For example, if the price falls to $3,026, 65% of the retracement has regained downward momentum potentially indicating a downward trend in the short term. Alternatively, at $3,027.90 the instrument will form a bearish breakout which again potentially indicates downward momentum. However, if the price increases above $3,034.17, a bullish breakout would have formed and the price will be again trading above the main Moving Average. Key Takeaway Points: Gold prices surged to an all-time high before dropping, possibly due to overbought concerns. Economic uncertainty and trade policies fuel demand for gold, bonds, and a declining stock market. The Federal Reserve acknowledges economic slowdown risks but remains reactive rather than proactive. The US plans tariffs on China, Canada, and Mexico, contributing to market volatility and economic concerns. Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business. Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report. Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar. Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding of how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE! Click HERE to READ more Market news. Michalis Efthymiou HFMarkets Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in Leveraged Products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission. -
By Stocks4life · Posted
PLTR Palantir Technologies stock, watch for a local breakout, target 106 area at https://stockconsultant.com/?PLTR
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