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High Volume Spike Reversal Indicator Development
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davem1979, in Coding Forum
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By HFblogNews · Posted
Date: 4th February 2025. The British Pound Remains Resilient Amid USD Strength! This week, the Great British Pound is one of the best-performing currencies against the US Dollar. The US Dollar saw strong gains during Monday’s Asian session but was unable to maintain momentum due to Trump pausing tariffs on Canada and Mexico for 30 days. Why is the GBP performing better than the Euro and other currencies? Why Is The British Pound Holding Strong Against The Dollar? The British Pound is strengthening due to President Trump's favourable stance toward the UK. Economists advise the UK is still at risk of tariffs in the next 4-years, but are not likely to be imminent. President Trump has announced tariffs on China, Mexico and Canada. Tariffs on Mexico and Canada have been postponed but stated Tariffs on the EU are almost certain. Therefore, the GBP has benefited from being left out of President Trump’s blacklist for now. Therefore, the GBP’s bearish price movement is weaker than that seen amongst other currency pairs. The GBP index this week is trading 0.22% lower but is still performing better than other currencies. The worst-performing currency of the past week is the Euro and the JPY is the best-performing along with the GBP. Economists advise the GBP may be able to benefit from global tariffs being put on partners as long as the US does not impose tariffs on the UK. In addition to this, the price movement of the Pound will also depend on monetary policy. The Bank of England's meeting is scheduled for Thursday at 14:00 (GMT+2). The regulator is expected to lower the interest rate by 25 basis points to 4.50%. This decision is driven by inflation concerns linked to the US Republican administration's trade policies. As a result, the GBP is also gaining support from the BoE, which remains cautious about reducing rates too quickly. In December, consumer prices rose 2.5% year-on-year, below analysts' expectations, nearing the 2.0% target. Meanwhile, the services CPI dropped sharply from 5.0% to 4.4%. However, rising energy costs could drive inflation higher. Additionally, UK Chancellor of the Exchequer Rachel Reeves' decision to raise employers' National Insurance contributions, along with minimum wage indexation, has increased labour costs. This could, in turn, impact household spending. Why Did the US Dollar Lose Momentum? The gains seen during Monday’s Asian Session were in response to tariffs on Mexico, Canada and China. However, tariffs on Mexico and Canada have been put on hold as both nations have said they are willing to provide 10,000 soldiers at their borders to stop drug trafficking and immigration. As the pause was announced, the US Dollar started to retreat as traders took advantage of the higher price to cash in their profits. Experts now point out that the tariff increases will impact half of all imports. Reducing reliance on external suppliers would require doubling domestic production, an unfeasible goal in the short term, potentially leading to a significant rise in consumer prices. As a result, Federal Reserve officials may be compelled to maintain the current policy for an extended period. Depending on inflation, the Fed may even consider tightening the policy if inflation rises. Against this backdrop, analysts have lowered their expectations for two interest rate cuts this year to 54.0%, according to the Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME) FedWatch Tool. President Trump acknowledged the potential negative effects of his actions but expressed confidence that no drastic consequences would occur. GBPUSD - Forecasts and Technical Analysis! The fundamental outlook for the UK is not likely to change this week, but for the US Dollar, the latest developments will likely change on a daily basis. Particularly, investors will be focusing on further comments on Tariffs, earnings data and this week’s employment data. If earnings data from Alphabet and Amazon are weaker than expectations and trigger a lower risk appetite, the US Dollar as a safe haven asset may increase in value. Investors will also monitor this week’s JOLTS Job Openings, ADP Employment Change, Salary Growth and NFP Employment Change. If the employment data again reads higher than the current expectations, the Federal Reserve will likely be less tempted to cut interest rates any time soon. Consequently, the GBPUSD may fall as the BoE simultaneously cuts interest rates for the first time in 2025. If the price falls below 1.23777, the exchange rate will form a breakout and drop below most moving averages on the 2-hour chart. In addition to this, with a bearish momentum of 0.32%, the decline is also likely to bring the RSI below the 50.00 level. If this materialises, the price may witness a bearish signal pointing towards further declines. Key Takeaways: The US Dollar loses momentum after Trump puts tariffs on Canada and Mexico on hold. Tariffs in the UK are not likely in the near future but remain at risk for the next 4-years. The EU is likely to see tariffs imposed upon them. The Bank of England is likely to cut 0.25% basis points on Thursday. Analysts have lowered their expectations for two interest rate cuts this year to 54.0%. If the GBPUSD drops below 1.23777, it will trigger a breakout and prompt a bearish signal. Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business. Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report. Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar. Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding of how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE! Click HERE to READ more Market news. Michalis Efthymiou HFMarkets Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in Leveraged Products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission. -
By HFblogNews · Posted
Date: 03rd February 2025. What do Trump's Tariffs Mean for the Financial Trading Markets? The announcement of the first Trump tariffs sends volatility through the roof. The market’s first reaction is to sell stocks and buy the US Dollar. The first countries to be hit by tariffs are Canada, Mexico and China. However, the US President also gave interesting indications on the government’s next moves. SNP500 - Tariffs on China, Canada and Mexico Send Stocks Lower! The SNP500 opens on a bearish price gap measuring 1.54% but trades 1.76% lower than Friday’s close. The decline is driven by a sharp drop in risk appetite from tariffs on Mexico, Canada, and China. The VIX, a risk sentiment indicator, is up over 8%, reflecting the fall in market confidence. Today’s sharp decline is one of the strongest seen in 2025 so far, but up to now remains weaker than the 2.95% decline from January 27th. The previous decline was due to the global repercussions of Chinese AI companies gaining momentum. However, this recent decline indicates that today’s downward trend may still gain momentum when the European and US sessions open. The only concern for traders is the price is trading close to the SNP500’s recent support level. The SNP500’s support level at $5,920 in the previous week triggered an upward correction, partially fueled by earnings data. Alphabet is due to release its quarterly earnings report tomorrow after market close and Amazon on Thursday. Therefore, traders should be cautious that while the downward risk remains great, the earnings data may prompt demand similar to the week before. China has also made a statement advising they are currently working on a trade proposal with the US in order to avoid tariffs. If an announcement is made indicating an agreement with China, the SNP500 could potentially gain bullish momentum. However, no such announcement has yet been made. The US 10-ear Bond Yields increase in value during the Asian session and the VIX index continues to rise as the European session edges closer. If bond yields and the VIX continue to increase throughout the day, the bearish bias is likely to strengthen. According to price action and price momentum indicators, the SNP500 is likely to witness sell signals at $5,924 and below. Euro - The Day’s Worst Performing Currency! The Euro is coming under pressure due to Trump’s latest interview as he was walking off Airforce One. President Donald Trump commented on the first tariffs on Mexico, Canada and China, but also said that tariffs “will definitely happen with the European Union”. Whereas, with the UK he was less concrete in his response. With the UK Trump advised there will likely be tariffs but they “may be able to work” something out. In terms of the European economy, December retail sales dropped 1.6% month-over-month (MoM) and slowed from 2.9% to 1.8% year-over-year (YoY). This reinforces the expectations of further interest rate adjustments by European Central Bank (ECB) officials. In the Eurozone’s largest economy, conditions for this shift are in place, as inflationary pressures ease and economic growth weakens due to sluggish demand and lower household activity. Additionally, Bank of Finland head Olli Rehn and Bank of Estonia governor Madis Müller emphasized the priority of a dovish policy stance in his speech on Friday. The Euro is currently the worst-performing currency of the day. The US Dollar - Safe Haven Status Increases Investor Demand! The US Dollar is currently the best performing currency due to its safe haven status. The USD Index is currently trading 1.25% higher and is the only currency index witnessing gains. The currency is witnessing the strongest gains against the Euro and the New Zealand Dollar. Consumer inflation in the country remains well above the 2.0% target, and some analysts believe it has stabilized at this higher level, raising the chances of a pause in monetary easing. This is likely to continue supporting the US Dollar, particularly if this week’s employment data beats expectations. Key Takeaways: Trump's announcement of tariffs on Mexico, Canada, and China sparks a sharp market decline, with the S&P 500 down by 1.76% and risk appetite falling. As the US 10-year bond yields increase and the VIX climbs, bearish momentum strengthens, signaling further declines in the S&P 500. The Euro weakens after Trump hints at potential tariffs on the European Union, with December retail sales and ECB policies adding to downward pressure. The US Dollar benefits from its safe haven status, rising 1.25% as investors seek stability amid tariff-related uncertainty. Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business. Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report. Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar. Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding of how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE! Click HERE to READ more Market news. Michalis Efthymiou HFMarkets Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in Leveraged Products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission. -
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The indicator in Post #1 is now FREE and unlimited!
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By Stocks4life · Posted
GBTC Grayscale Bitcoin Trust ETF watch for a top of range breakout at https://stockconsultant.com/?GBTC
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